摘要
目的社区老年膝骨关节炎(KOA)患者衰弱风险预测模型的构建。方法选择2021年3月至2023年5月社区老年患者128例,采用衰弱表型(FP)量表评估膝骨关节患者的衰弱情况,分为衰弱组和非衰弱组。对社区老年KOA患者衰弱发生的可能影响因素采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析;构建社区老年KOA患者发生衰弱的列线图模型,并分析其预测价值。结果128例社区老年KOA患者发生衰弱47例,发生率36.72%。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,病程、视听力障碍、锻炼、合并慢病数量、社会支持是社区老年KOA患者发生衰弱的独立危险因素(P<0.05);构建社区老年KOA患者的衰弱列线图模型,该列线图模型预测社区老年KOA患者发生衰弱的AUC为0.876(95%CI:0.813~0.951),最佳截断值为87.51分,敏感度为83.17%,特异度为78.48%。结论社区老年KOA患者衰弱发生率较高,且受到的影响因素较多,构建列线图模型用于社区老年KOA患者衰弱发生具有较高的预测效能。
Objective To construct a predictive model for the risk of frailty in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community.Methods A total of 128 elderly patients in the community from March 2021 to May 2023 were selected as the subjects,all of whom were evaluated for knee osteoarthritis weakness using the frailty phenotype(FP)scale and divided into a frail group and a non frail group.Review two sets of data and complete single factor and multivariate logistic regression analysis on the possible influencing factors of frailty in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community.Based on the results of multiple factors,a column chart model for the occurrence of weakness in elderly knee osteoarthritis patients in the community was constructed using the RMS program in R3.5.3 software,and its predictive value was analyzed.Results Among the 128 elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community,there were 47 cases of weakness,with an incidence rate of 36.72%.The results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression showed that disease course,visual and auditory impairment,exercise,number of comorbid chronic diseases,and social support were independent risk factors for the occurrence of weakness in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the region(P<0.05).Construct a frailty column chart model for elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community.The ROC curve results show that the AUC value of the column chart model for predicting knee osteoarthritis frailty in elderly patients in the community is 0.876,with a 95%CI of 0.813-0.951,an optimal cutoff value of 87.51 points,a sensitivity of 83.17%,and a specificity of 78.48%.Conclusion The incidence of frailty in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community is relatively high,and there are many influencing factors.Constructing a column chart model for predicting frailty in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis in the community has high predictive efficacy.
出处
《浙江临床医学》
2024年第5期767-768,771,共3页
Zhejiang Clinical Medical Journal
