摘要
政策评估作为政策实施过程中的关键环节,是检验政策效果的基本途径与实现资源优化配置的重要依据.在复杂博弈情境下,决策单元群体间竞合关系不变的假设已经不能满足现实中效率评价的需求,考虑群体间动态变化的合作与竞争关系至关重要.本文将外界冲击下主体间竞合关系演变纳入效率评价框架,提出改进分层博弈交叉数据包络分析方法:从公平的视角出发,基于二次目标模型构建多层次效率矩阵,结合Shapley值对决策单元动态关系演变进行效率评价,进而,以水权交易市场试点政策为例,验证该模型的可行性.该方法放松了政策前后群体竞合关系稳定的假设,验证了水权交易市场政策的有效性和外溢性,为能源与环境领域试点政策效果评价提供了新方法.
As a key step in the process of policy implementation,policy evaluation is not only a basic way to test the effects of policies but also an important basis for achieving optimal allocation of resources.In a com⁃plex game situation,the assumption that the relationship between decision⁃making unit groups remains un⁃changed is not suitable for efficiency evaluation in reality.It is very important to consider the dynamic evolu⁃tion of cooperation and competition between groups.Considering the evolution of the competition and coopera⁃tion relationship between subjects under external shocks in the evaluation framework,the paper proposes an improved hierarchical game cross⁃efficiency model.A multi⁃level efficiency matrix is constructed by employing the programming model twice from a fair perspective;moreover,the efficiency model applied the Shapley val⁃ue to evaluate the efficiency caused by the dynamic relationship evolution of decision⁃making units.Finally,the water rights trading market is adopted as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show the effectiveness and spillover of the market policy.Our model broadens the assumption that the group rela⁃tionship of competition and cooperation remains unchanged and provides a feasible method for evaluating the effect of pilot policies in energy and environment.
作者
王兆华
李靖云
王博
张斌
WANG Zhao-hua;LI Jing-yun;WANG Bo;ZHANG Bin(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Key Laboratory of Digital Economy and Policy Intelligence,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期18-29,共12页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72243001,72321002,72141302).
关键词
分层博弈交叉效率
公平视角
试点政策效果评估
水权交易试点
hierarchical game cross⁃efficiency
fair perspective
evaluation of the effects of pilot policy
pilot of water rights trading
