摘要
[研究目的]科学识别未来技术是前瞻布局未来产业、抢占未来发展制高点的首要问题,能够为中国加快实现高水平科技自立自强提供决策参考。[研究方法]从未来技术前沿突破性、交叉融合性、战略主导性三大特征出发,遵循“指标设计—指标赋权—判定分析”的研究逻辑,首先筛选出9项未来技术特征指标,再结合博弈论组合赋权法识别特定领域的未来技术,最后根据特征得分划分未来技术所属类型。[研究结论]以全球芯片材料行业专利数据为实证样本,识别出过程辅助材料、衬底材料和封装材料三项未来技术主题,且分别属于“Y_(bH)—Y_(fH)—Y_(dH)”“Y_(bH)—Y_(fL)—Y_(dH)”“Y_(bL)—Y_(fL)—Y_(dH)”类型,研究结果与目前芯片材料行业发展趋势相一致,验证了未来技术识别模型的科学性和有效性。
[Research purpose]Scientific identification of future technologies is the first and foremost issue for forward-looking layout of future industries and seizing the commanding heights of future development,which can provide a reference for China to accelerate the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement.[Research method]This paper starts from the three characteristics of future technology:frontier breakthrough,cross-fertilization and strategic dominance,and carries out the research following the logic of"indicator design-indicator empowerment-judgment analysis".It firstly screens out 9 indicators of future technology characteristics,then identifies future technologies in specific fields by combining the game theory combination empowerment method,and finally divides the types of future technologies according to the scores of the characteristics.[Research conclusion]Using the patent data of the global chip materials industry as an empirical sample,the paper identifies three future technology topics:process support materials,substrate materials,and packaging materials,which belong to the type of"Y_(bH)-Y_(fH)-Y_(dH)""Y_(bH)-Y_(fL)-Y_(dH)"and"Y_(bL)-Y_(fL)-Y_(dH)"respectively.The research results are consistent with the current development trend of the chip material industry,and verify the scientific validity and effectiveness of the future technology identification model.
作者
江瑶
陈旭
张凌恺
Jiang Yao;Chen Xu;Zhang Lingkai(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620;School of Economics&Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期104-111,137,共9页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“数字文化产业创新生态系统价值共创研究:动因、机制与演化”(编号:72104137)
上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目“上海融合性数字产业‘卡脖子’技术甄选机制与攻关路径研究”(编号:21YF1415900)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“面向自立自强的我国未来智能产业颠覆性技术培育机制研究”(编号:23YJC630015)研究成果。
关键词
未来技术
技术识别
专利数据
指标体系
博弈论组合赋权法
芯片材料
多维特征
future technologies
technology identification
patent data
indicator system
game theory combinatorial empowerment method
chip materials
multidimensional features
