摘要
为了助推天然气在中国新型能源体系建设中发挥更大的作用,回顾了2023年中国天然气市场调峰需求的主要特点,展望了2024年中国天然气市场的发展趋势。研究结果表明:(1)2023年,中国天然气供需总体宽松,天然气季节性调峰量为212×10^(8)m^(3),占该年全国天然气消费总量的5.4%,较2022年有所下滑;(2)2023年中国高月天然气不均匀系数为1.34,低月不均匀系数为0.85,月峰谷比为1.57,消费量月度波动幅度在年初市场异常和淡季需求量增长的影响下有所收窄;(3)2023年中国高峰天然气日消费量在历史性寒潮的刺激下直线攀升,峰值达到15.7×10^(8)m^(3)/d,同比增长18.9%;(4)城市燃气和发电用气成为2023年中国天然气调峰需求的主力,工业燃料和化工原料用气在一定程度上平抑了天然气消费量的季节性波动;(5)2023年中国储气设施顶峰能力再上新台阶,经营品种更加丰富;(6)在诸多有利条件叠加的情景下,预计2024年中国天然气需求量将有望达到4264×10^(8)m^(3),同比增长8.8%,新增需求量以工业燃料和发电用气为主;(7)2024年中国天然气调峰需求量预计为227×10^(8)m^(3),同比增长7.0%;(8)预计2024年中国天然气供应能力增长将超过需求量增长,整体上继续保持供应宽松的格局,并且在积极情景下LNG现货需求将保持旺盛;(9)建议国内天然气进口企业高度关注国际市场供应侧风险,销售企业提前做好冬季资源储备,城市燃气企业利用改革红利及时补齐相关短板,设施经营企业积极拓展市场化经营模式。
In order to promote natural gas to play a greater role in the construction of China's new energy system,the characteristics of China's natural gas peak-shaving demand in 2023 are reviewed for the outlook on the development trend of China's natural gas market in 2024.The results show that:(1)In 2023,China's natural gas supply and demand were generally loose,and the annual seasonal peak load scale is 212×10^(8) m^(3),accounting for 5.4%of the total consumption,which is lower than that in 2022;(2)In 2023,the high-consumption monthly non-uniformity coefficient was 1.34,and the low-consumption monthly non-uniformity coefficient was 0.85,with the monthly peak-to-valley ratio of 1.57.The monthly fluctuation was narrowed under the influence of market anomaly at the beginning of the year and off-season demand growth;(3)In 2023,the peak daily consumption rose sharply under the stimulus of the historic cold wave,and the annual peak reached 15.7×10^(8) m^(3)/d,an increase of 18.9%yea-on-year;(4)City gas and power generation gas became the main demand for peak regulation,and industrial fuel and chemical raw material sectors stabilized the seasonal fluctuations to a certain extent;(5)The peak capacity of gas storage facilities has reached a new level,with more new product varieties;(6)With many favorable conditions,it is expected that China's natural gas demand is likely to grow 8.8%to 4264×10^(8) m^(3) in 2024,mainly coming from industrial fuels and power generation;(7)The annual peak demand for natural gas in 2024 is projected at about 227×10^(8) m^(3),an year-on-year increase of 7.0%;(8)In 2024,the growth of natural gas supply capacity will exceed the growth of demand with loose overall supply,and the LNG spot demand will remain strong under the positive scenario;(9)In conclusion,it is suggested that domestic natural gas import enterprises pay great attention to the supply side risks of the international market,natural gas sales enterprises do a good job in winter resource reserves in advance,urban gas enterprises utilize the reform benefits to timely make up for safety and gas storage shortcomings,and natural gas facility/equipment enterprises actively develop market-oriented business models.
作者
粟科华
黄伊凡
周慧羚
辛静
张晓
徐玮琪
姚尧
SU Kehua;HUANG Yifan;ZHOU Huiling;XIN Jing;ZHANG Xiao;XU Weiqi;YAO Yao(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083,China;China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;CCB Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期133-141,共9页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
中国石油化工股份有限公司油田部科研项目“国内调峰用气需求分析及储气库经营策略研究”(编号:YTBXDQTKF-2022-003-005)。
关键词
天然气
供应
需求
调峰
储气设施
经营品种
天然气利用政策
Natural gas
Supply
Demand
Peak-shaving
Gas storage facilities
Product variety
Natural gas utilization policy
