摘要
厘清黄河流域人口与土地异速生长关系的空间分异特征与时空变化趋势对协调黄河流域人地关系,提高黄河流域生态承载力有重要借鉴意义。文章引入生物学异速生长模型对黄河流域生态承载力的人地协调关系进行研究。结果表明:第一,黄河流域城市主要以正异速二级,土地明显扩张类型为主,其在黄河流域上中下游占比分别为44.45%、52.94%和84.61%。第二,以2015年为分界点,黄河流域异速生长系数有显著的阶段性转换特征。2015年前黄河流域异速生长系数总体呈现下降趋势,2015年后则小幅提升。从2013年开始,黄河上游异速生长类型由正异速转为负异速,黄河中下游一直为正异速生长。第三,黄河上中下游异速生长系数的全局莫兰指数均为负数,异速生长系数呈现高低集聚分布态势。第四,从影响土地和人口数量变化的因素上看,工业化水平、金融发展对土地扩张和人口增长均有正向促进作用,政府干预可促进人口增长,但教育资源不足成为抑制人口增长的重要因素。从而得到以下政策启示:在提高城市土地利用率的基础上,上中下游城市群均应充分利用市场机制对城市建设用地进行资源配置,进一步提高城市建设用地的利用效率,积极推进土地的二次开发和利用,优化城市土地的利用结构,积极发挥城市集聚效应,合理规划城市增长边界。
Clarifying the spatial differentiation characteristics,spatiotemporal change trends,and the interaction be-tween human land relationship and ecological environment in the coordination relationship between population and land heterotrophic growth in the Yellow River Basin has important reference significance for coordinating the human land relationship in the Yellow River Basin and improving the ecological carrying capacity of the Yellow River ecosys-tem and forestry.This article introduces a biological allometric growth model to study the human land coordination rela-tionship that affects the main forestry ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin.The research results indi-cate that:firstly,the cities in the Yellow River Basin are mainly of the second level of positive differential velocity,and the main type of land expansion is obvious.Among them,the proportion of cities with significant expansion of land in the upper reaches of the Yellow River is 52.94%;The proportion of urban land expansion in the middle reaches of the Yellow River is 44.45%.The proportion of cities with significant land expansion in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is 84.61%.Secondly,before 2015,the overall heterotrophic growth coefficient of the Yellow River Basin showed a down-ward trend,while after 2015,the heterotrophic growth coefficient of the Yellow River Basin increased slightly.Since 2013,the type of allometric growth in the upper reaches of the Yellow River has shifted from positive allometric to nega-tive allometric,and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River have been experiencing positive allometric growth.This indicates that the relative growth rate of upstream population is faster than the relative growth rate of land.Thirdly,the global Moran index of the allometric growth coefficients in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yel-low River are all negative,and cities with high and low allometric growth coefficients are clustered.Fourthly,from the perspective of factors affecting land and population changes,the proportion of the secondary industry and financial de-velopment have a positive promoting effect on land expansion and population growth.Government intervention can pro-mote population growth,but insufficient educational resources have become an important factor in suppressing popula-tion growth.From the conclusion,the following policy implications can be drawn:on the basis of improving urban land use efficiency,both upstream,midstream,and downstream urban agglomerations should actively promote secondary land use and development,and fully utilize market mechanisms to allocate construction land resources.Utilize the bene-fits of urban agglomeration,improve the efficiency of urban construction land use,reasonably plan urban growth bound-aries,and optimize urban land use structure.
作者
张永芳
周斌
李蛟
张跃胜
ZHANG Yong-fang;ZHOU Bin;LI Jiao;ZHANG Yue-sheng(Xinxiang University,Xinxiang Henan,453003,China;School of Economics and management,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin,300384,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第4期112-126,共15页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
2023年度河南省软科学研究计划项目:数字经济赋能河南省制造业升级的机理、效应与路径研究(232400410288)
河南省科学技术厅(2022年河南省重点研究与推广专项):乡村振兴背景下的河南乡村旅游智能平台框架建设研究(222400410137)
河南省软科学研究项目:“双碳目标”下黄河流域县域单元碳排放的时空分异特征及影响因素研究(242400411151)。
关键词
黄河流域
生态承载力
人地协调
异速生长
高质量发展
Yellow River Basin
Ecological Capacity
Human Land Coordination
Allometric Growth
High Quality Development
