摘要
目的 分析2017—2022年乌鲁木齐市2型糖尿病死亡流行特征及变化趋势,为制定糖尿病防控政策提供理论依据。方法 对2型糖尿病的流行特征进行分析。同时运用R软件建立时间序列预测模型,对死亡趋势拟合效果进行评价。结果 2017—2022年乌鲁木齐市2型糖尿病死亡率达到13.46/10万、标化死亡率为11.78/10万。男性粗死亡率年度变化百分比差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。死亡率随着年龄的增长而升高,70岁之前男性死亡率高于女性,反之女性死亡率升高。动态数列结果表示,男性平均发展速度高于总人群和女性。建立最优自回归积分滑动平均模型(0,1,1)预测死亡趋势,模型拟合度合格,需要提高精确度。结论 2017—2022年乌鲁木齐市2型糖尿病死亡率有增长趋势,为实现健康中国行动,需重点对辖区内的老年群体进行健康宣传教育,预防2型糖尿病合并症的发生,并降低其死亡率。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of type 2 diabetes death in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022,and to provide a theoretical basis for formulating diabetes prevention and control policies.Methods The crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,annual percentage change(APC),dynamic series and other indicators of 2 177 death data of type 2 diabetes collected in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022 were statistically analyzed.At the same time,the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) prediction model was used to establish a model based on the death data from January 1,2017 to June 30,2022,to predict the monthly number of type 2 diabetes death in the second half of 2022,and compare it with the actual value to evaluate the model fitting effect.Results From 2017 to 2022,the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi reached 13.46/100 000,and the standardized mortality rate was 11.78/100 000.There was a significant difference in APC results for male mortality(P<0.05).The mortality rate of type 2 diabetes increased with age,and the mortality rate was higher in men than in women before the age of 70,and conversely,female mortality was higher than male.Retirees,married people,and people with junior high school education or below had higher mortality rates than others.The results of the standardized mortality dynamic series showed that the average rate of development in men was higher than that in the general population and women.By establishing the optimal ARIMA(0,1,1) prediction model,the model fit was qualified,while the accuracy would need to be improved.Conclusion From 2017 to 2022,the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi has an increasing trend.In order to realize the Healthy China Action,it is necessary to focus on health publicity and education for the elderly in the jurisdiction,prevent the occurrence of type 2 diabetes comorbidities,and reduce the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes.
作者
吾尔丽卡·吾斯曼
赵娥
孙高峰
孔馨雪
WUERLIKA Wusiman;ZHAO E;SUN Gaofeng;KONG Xinxue(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830000,China;Department of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases,Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830026,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2024年第4期107-110,共4页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0907203)
国家自然科学基金项目(U1803124)
乌鲁木齐市疾控中心科研项目(SJK2021003)。
