摘要
陆上风电场系统复杂、运维条件变幅大、不可控因素较多。为降低陆上风电场运维期的风险,提出基于系统理论过程分析方法(STPA),建立综合考虑陆上风电场各种失事形式的单目标多层次评价指标体系,并构建基于G1-改进CRITIC-云模型的陆上风电场运维期风险评价模型。该模型通过G1法和改进CRITIC法分别确定评价指标的主客观权重,利用博弈论计算评价指标的组合权重,应用云模型确定风险指标等级,通过MATLAB完成实例的仿真分析,并以湖北某陆上风电场为例进行分析。结果表明:该陆上风电场运维期风险等级在“较低风险”和“一般风险”之间,能够真实反映陆上风电场运维期风险状况,提高运维期风险管理水平,研究结果可为陆上风电场运维管理工作提供参考。
The onshore wind farm system is complex,the operation and maintenance conditions vary greatly,and there are many uncontrollable factors.In order to reduce the risk during the operation and maintenance period of onshore wind farms,in this paper,a system theory process analysis method(STPA)based was proposed to establish a single objective multi-level evaluation index system considering various accident forms of onshore wind farms,and constructed a risk evaluation model during the operation and maintenance period of onshore wind farms based on the G1-improved CRITIC-cloud model.The model determined the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators through G1 method and improved CRITIC method,used game theory method to calculate the combined weight of evaluation indicators,apply cloud models to determine the level of risk indicators and completed the simulation analysis of examples through MATLAB,taking a terrestrial wind farm in Hubei Province as an example for analysis.The results show that the risk level of the onshore wind farm during the operation and maintenance period is between"low risk"and"general risk",which can truly reflect the risk status of the onshore wind farm during the operation and maintenance period and improve the risk management level during the operation and maintenance period,and the research results can provide a reference for the operation and maintenance management of the onshore wind farm.
作者
李建波
蔡振
光文祥
胡少华
LI Jianbo;CAI Zhen;GUANG Wenxiang;HU Shaohua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
CAS
2024年第3期374-381,共8页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979208)
国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金项目(CX2019B014)。
