摘要
2022年1月1日,我国启动实施余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度,要求在全国范围内实现养老保险“五统一”,但我国养老保险缴费率还未统一。随着全国统筹政策的推进,在全国范围内是继续维持差别缴费率还是统一缴费率,是值得深入探讨的问题。本文借鉴税收领域的拉弗曲线,构建计量与精算模型,从基金可持续性与财政责任视角研究发现:(1)养老保险政策缴费率与实际缴费率之间存在倒U型关系,拐点处的政策缴费率为27.6%。(2)如果继续维持差别缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为7423524.546亿元。(3)如果统一缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度仍可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为6488988.037亿元,相较于差别缴费率,累计财政责任下降12.6%。(4)进一步引入延迟法定退休年龄政策,在统一缴费率的情形下,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降14.1%—54.4%。(5)执行养老保险基金全国统收统支制度,在统一缴费率并实施延迟法定退休年龄政策的情形下,相较于全国统筹制度,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降3.3%—9.2%。综上,在基金可持续性的基础上,为缓解财政压力,应推动养老保险缴费率的全国统一,并逐步推进延迟法定退休年龄政策,实现养老保险基金全国统收统支。
With the increase of population life expectancy and the change of age structure,the payment pressure of pension funds in China is increasing,and the inter-provincial fund imbalance is becoming increasingly serious.For the implementation of the policy of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on national pooling of basic pension insurance,in January 2022,China launched the dispensing of pension insurance as a whole system,that is,the nationwide“five unification”of pension insurance:unified payment policy,unified fund payments,unified responsibility mechanism for central and local governments,unified service management and information system,and unified provincial government assessment mechanism.With the promotion of the national pooling policy,it is worth an in-depth study on whether to maintain existing differential contribution rates or the unified payment rate across the country.Based on 2002—2021 panel data of urban worker basic pension insurance of provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities),this paper draws lessons from the Laffer curve in the tax field and builds a measurement and actuarial model.From the perspective of fund sustainability and fiscal responsibility,it finds that:(1)The pension insurance payment shows the Laffer curve,and the policy contribution rate and actual payment rate form an inverted U-shaped relationship.The policy contribution rate at the inflection point is 27.6%.Before the inflection point,the pension insurance actual payment rate increases with the increase of the policy contribution rate.(2)If the differential payment rates continue to be maintained,the national pooling system of surplus and shortage adjustment can be implemented until 2041,and the cumulative fiscal responsibility from 2024 to 2050 will be CNY 742352.455 billion.(3)When the unified payment rate is adopted,the national pooling system of surplus and shortage adjustment can still be implemented until 2041,and the cumulative fiscal responsibility from 2024 to 2050 will be CNY 648898.804 billion,12.6%lower compared with that of the differential payment rate.(4)When the plan of delaying the retirement age is further implemented,compared with the unified contribution rate,the cumulative fiscal responsibility from 2024 to 2050 decreases by 14.1%-54.4%.(5)When the national unified collection and expenditure of pension insurance are implemented and the above policy adjustment plan is implemented,the cumulative fiscal responsibility of delaying the retirement age from 2024 to 2050 is reduced by 3.3%-9.2%compared with the national pooling system.The conclusion in this paper can provide an empirical reference for the parameter optimization of the national pooling policy of pension insurance,and have a reference significance for“improving the national pooling system of basic pension insurance”in the report to the 20th CPC National Congress.
作者
曾益
聂韬
ZENG Yi;NIE Tao(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《财经问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期60-73,共14页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“职工养老保险全国统筹对地方政府保费征缴行为的影响:机制探讨、实证检验与政策优化”(72304283)。
关键词
养老保险
全国统筹
缴费率
基金可持续性
财政责任
pension insurance
national pooling
contribution rate
fund sustainability
fiscal responsibility
