摘要
全国碳排放交易市场建立后,国家碳交易体系进一步完善。本文以上海碳市场为例,对市场价格波动的变化和影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)全国市场建立后,上海碳排放权交易价格水平呈现上升趋势,且波动趋稳;(2)碳排放权交易价格受碳市场履约期影响。全国碳市场建立前,碳市场价格临近履约期碳价上升,而全国碳交易市场建立后,临近履约期碳交易价格受履约期冲击反而下降;(3)影响因素的研究发现能源价格以及气温均会推动碳排放权交易价格上升,而碳价与经济因素却呈负相关,推测上海将或已达环境库兹涅茨拐点。基于以上结论,为巩固碳市场发展良好态势,应当阶段性进行扩大市场规模、扩大覆盖范围、改革碳交易履约制度并加强制度标准化建设,大力发展清洁能源进行能源结构转型。
After the establishment of the national carbon emissions trading market,the national carbon trading system has been further improved.This article takes the Shanghai carbon market as an example to study the changes and influencing factors of market price fluctuations.The research results show that:(1)after the establishment of the national market,the level of carbon emissions trading prices in Shanghai shows an upward trend,and the fluctuations tend to stabilize;(2)the carbon emissions trading prices are affected by the carbon market compliance period.Before the establishment of the national carbon trading market,the carbon market prices near the compliance period rise,while after the establishment of the national carbon trading market,the carbon trading prices near the compliance period are impacted by the compliance period and decline;(3)the influencing factors study found that energy prices and temperatures will drive up the carbon emissions trading prices,while carbon prices are negatively related to economic factors,suggesting that Shanghai may have reached the environmental Kuznets inflection point.Based on the above conclusions,in order to consolidate the good development trend of the carbon market,it is necessary to expand the market size and coverage in stages,reform the carbon trading compliance system,strengthen institutional standardization construction,and vigorously develop clean energy for energy structure transformation..
作者
冯浩博
余杨
Feng Haobo;Yu Yang(Business School of Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)
出处
《上海经济》
2024年第4期27-38,共12页
Shanghai Economy
关键词
碳交易市场
价格波动
履约期
影响因素
Carbon Trading Market
Price Fluctuation
Performance Period
Influencing Factors
