摘要
【目的】目前的城市内涝模拟模型面临着资料要求高、计算量大、适用尺度小等诸多挑战,探索简便高效、操作性强的内涝模拟模型,可为缺乏资料的城市提供识别内涝风险、提升防灾水平的有力工具。【方法】集成元胞自动机对复杂系统的模拟能力和地理信息系统平台的空间数据处理能力,结合水文水力学原理定义元胞及其规则,建立城市内涝风险识别模型;利用开源数据,将模型应用于杭州主城八区;对比已有研究讨论模型的适用性和局限性。【结果】结果显示:(1)元胞边长为60 m、时间步长为4 min的模拟结果最好,参数率定与模型验证的纳什效率系数分别为0.9693和0.9714。(2)2021年研究区百年一遇短时强降雨条件下,建设用地中内涝风险区占比6.94%;将雨水管渠设计重现期由5 a一遇提升至10 a一遇,内涝风险区占比降至6.30%。(3)该模型不需要划分汇水区、数据资料要求少,在平原城市短时强降雨的内涝模拟中具有良好的实用性及和易操作性;但也存在物理机制弱、模拟结果不够精细等局限。【结论】基于CA的城市内涝风险识别模型并不是水文水力学数值模型的改进,而是在权衡数据资料要求、模型运算效率、识别结果准确性等多方面因素之后建立的简化模型,对平原城市内涝防治具有较好的适用性。
[Objective]At present,the urban waterlogging simulation model faces many challenges,such as high data requirements,large amount of calculation,small applicable scale and so on.Exploring a simple,efficient and operational waterlogging simulation model can provide a powerful tool for cities lacking information to identify waterlogging risks and improve disaster prevention level.[Methods]The ability of cellular automata to simulate complex systems and the spatial data processing ability of GIS platform are integrated,cells and their rules are defined according to the principles of hydrology and hydraulics,the risk identification model of urban waterlogging is established.Using open source data,the model is applied to the eight districts of Hangzhou main city.The applicability and limitations of the model are discussed by comparing the existing studies.[Results]The results show:(1)The simulation result of the model are best when the cell side length is 60 meters and the time step is 4 min.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of parameter calibration and model verification are 0.9693 and 0.9714.(2)Under the condition of once-in-a-century short-term heavy rainfall in the study area in 2021,the waterlogging risk area accounts for 6.94%of the construction land.When the design recurrence period of rainwater pipes is increased from once every five years to once every ten years,the proportion of waterlogging risk area is reduced to 6.30%.(3)The model does not need to divide the catchment area and requires less data,so it has good practicability and operability in the waterlogging simulation of short-term heavy rainfall in plain cities.However,there are also some limitations,such as weak physical mechanism and imprecise simulation result.[Conclusion]The risk identification model of urban waterlogging based on CA is not an improvement of the numerical model of hydrology or hydraulics,but a simplified model established after weighing many factors such as data requirements,model operation efficiency,accuracy of identification result and so on,which has good applicability to the prevention and control of waterlogging in plain cities.
作者
陈前虎
沈铷桑
陈甜甜
杨泓哲
CHEN Qianhu;SHEN Rusang;CHEN Tiantian;YANG Hongzhe(School of Design and Architecture,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2024年第8期1-12,共12页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52278083)
国家重大社科基金项目(16ZDA018)。
关键词
极端暴雨
城市内涝
风险识别
元胞自动机
数值模拟
降水
径流
气候变化
extreme rainstorm
urban waterlogging
risk identification
cellular automaton
numerical simulation
precipitation
runoff
climate change
