摘要
研究城市内公园绿地的土地利用变化,对于日后城市公园的发展及改造、城市的经济发展、空间安排都具有一定的参考意义。以武汉市江岸区为研究对象,运用ArcGIS对Landsat 2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年4期土地遥感数据进行目视解译,并通过CA-Markov模型对2030年土地利用情况以及城市公园绿地变化进行预测,在此基础上分析了2005-2030年城市公园绿地的变化情况。结果显示:①武汉市江岸区的主要用地类型为建设用地,面积占总用地面积的60%以上;②耕地和林地的减少和建设用地的持续增加是武汉市江岸区2005-2010年土地利用最为明显的变化特征;③运用CA-Markov模型模拟2015年和2020年土地利用变化,其Kappa系数分别为0.772和0.809,均大于0.75,模拟精度合格;④预测的武汉市江岸区2030年土地利用变化显示:耕地和林地的减少以及建设用地的增加仍然是主要趋势,但二者变化幅度减缓,城市公园绿地处于持续增加的状态。指出了武汉市江岸区建设用地的持续增加,耕地林地的持续减少需要引起重视,基于CA-Markov模型模拟的2030年土地利用变化也可为武汉市江岸区未来土地利用开发提供参考,同时城市公园绿地的建设可以此为参考依据,发展原有的城市公园绿地或开发新的城市公园绿地。
This paper focuses on the land use change of parks and green spaces in the city,which has certain reference for the development and transformation of urban parks,urban economic development and spatial arrangement in the future.Taking Jiang'an District of Wuhan City as the research object,ArcGIS was used to visually interpret the land remote sensing data of Landsat in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020.The land use and urban park green space changes in 2030 were predicted through the CA-Markov model,and the changes of urban park green space from 2005 to 2030 were analyzed.The results showed that:①The main land use type in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City was construction land,accounting for more than 60%of the total land area.②The decrease of cultivated land and forest land and the continuous increase of construction land were the main reasons for the decrease of cultivated land and forest land in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City in 2005.③The Kappa coefficients of land use simulated by CA-Markov model in 2015 and 2020 were 0.772 and 0.809,respectively,both of which were greater than 0.75,and the simulation accuracy was acceptable;④The predicted land use change in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City in 2030 showed that the decrease of cultivated land and forest land and the increase of construction land were still the main trends,but the change range of the two was slowed down,and the green space of urban parks has been increasing;Attention needs to be paid to the continuous increase of construction land and the continuous decrease of cultivated land and forest land in Jiang'an District of Wuhan City.The land use change in 2030 simulated by the CA-Markov model can also provide a reference for the future land use development of Jiang'an District of Wuhan City,and the construction of urban park green space can be used as a reference for the development of existing urban park green space or the development of new urban park green space.
作者
马凌云
肖国增
Ma Lingyun;Xiao Guozeng(College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434025,Hubei,China)
出处
《绿色科技》
2024年第13期25-31,共7页
Journal of Green Science and Technology
