摘要
水文模型作为洪水预报和水资源管理的有效途径,其参数对山洪临界雨量的确定产生显著影响。本文以河北柳林、西台峪和坡底3个小流域为研究对象,利用径流曲线水文模型、广义似然不确定性估计法和Sobol分析法,探究在不同模型参数组下临界雨量的变化区间,并提出一种山洪概率预报方法。结果表明:水文模型的平均纳什效率系数高于0.7,大部分洪水场次的洪峰相对误差低于12%;临界雨量的不确定性区间随着降雨历时和预警等级的增加而逐渐变宽,当土壤湿度较低时影响更为显著;水文模型的曲线数和初损率是影响临界雨量的主要参数,平均贡献率分别为46.23%和14.72%;相比于临界雨量法,概率预报法的综合评价指标提高了9.8%,可为山洪灾害预警提供更多的风险信息。
Hydrological modeling is an effective approach to flood forecasting and water resources management,significantly impacting the determination of critical rainfall in flash flood warnings.Focusing on three small watersheds in Hebei province,namely Liulin,Xitaiyu and Podi,this study examines the ranges of variations in the critical rainfalls under different sets of hydrological model parameters,using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)hydrological model,a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method,and the Sobol method.A probability forecast method for flash flood events is developed.The results indicate this SCS-CN model performs well in three case studies,achieving an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.7 and a relative error below 12%in its peak discharge calculations for most of the flood events.The uncertainty of critical rainfalls gradually increases with rainfall duration or warning level,especially under the conditions of low soil moisture.The curve number and the initial loss ratio in the hydrological model are two primary parameters that affect critical rainfall uncertainty and contribute 46.2%and 14.7%on average,respectively.Compared to the critical rainfall method,our probability forecast method enhances the comprehensive evaluation index by 9.8%,offering additional risk information for flash flood warnings.
作者
梁峰铭
王洁
林诚杰
刘淼
李姣
陈峨印
LIANG Fengming;WANG Jie;LIN Chengjie;LIU Miao;LI Jiao;CHEN Eyin(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210044,China;Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Nanjing 210029,China;Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environmental Meteorological Center,Shijiazhuang 050022,China;Hebei Xingtai Hydrological Survey and Research Center,Xingtai 054000,China)
出处
《水力发电学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期35-46,共12页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX23_1375)
河北省省级科技计划资助项目(19275408D)
国家自然科学基金项目(41877158)。
关键词
径流模拟
山洪概率预警
广义似然不确定性估计法
临界雨量
不确定性分析
runoff simulation
probability forecast of flash floods
generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
critical rainfall
uncertainty analysis
