摘要
随着全球气候变化和我国城镇化快速发展,极端暴雨天气防范应对已成为城市防汛工作的重点之一。极端降雨条件下的实时滚动洪涝风险分析可以为预报预警提供参考,增强决策的科学性,是防范洪涝灾害的有效方法。尽管传统基于水文水动力专业模型的仿真可以在精细网格上计算出洪水演进及退水的全过程,但精细网格数值计算往往需要消耗大量的算力资源,滚动洪涝预测预报的时效性往往达不到要求。通过建立城市洪涝淹没深度与降雨量之间的函数映射关系,提出了基于静态—动态变量解耦的动态水深高效插值方法,结合分布式数据库和并行计算技术,可以在极短的时间内提供与水文水动力专业模型模拟相对一致的结果。本研究以期为城市洪涝实时风险分析提供有效支撑。
With the global climate change and rapid urbanization in China,extreme rainfall response has become one of the priorities of urban flood management.Dynamic rolling flood risk analysis under extreme rainfall events can provide reference for forecasting and early warning,enhancing the scientific basis for decision-making,and is an effective means of preventing flood disasters.Although traditional hydrological-hydrodynamic models can accurately calculate flood routing and retreat in fine grids,they often spended extensive computation time due to the big grid scale,and the real-time rolling water depth prediction often cannot meet the requirements.This paper proposes an efficient interpolation technique based on static-dynamic variable decoupling by establishing a functional mapping relationship between flood inundation depth and rainfall.Combined with distributed databases and parallel computing techniques,this method can provide results consistent with those of hydrologicalhydrodynamic models in a very short period of time.The study aims to provide effective support for real-time flood risk analysis.
作者
王诗怡
杨光
陈雨璇
黎东洲
刘国庆
范子武
贾本有
WANG Shiyi;YANG Guang;CHEN Yuxuan;LI Dongzhou;LIU Guoqing;FAN Ziwu;JIA Benyou(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029;Key Laboratory of Taihu Basin Water Resources Management of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029;Nanjing R&D Hydro-information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210029)
出处
《中国防汛抗旱》
2024年第9期26-31,共6页
China Flood & Drought Management
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202603)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y124007、Y124004、Y124003)。
关键词
城市洪涝
预报预警
河网管网模型
洪涝风险分析
插值计算
urban flooding
real-time forecast
river-pipe network model
flood risk analysis
interpolation
