摘要
为掌握枢纽抵站旅客的出行方式选择特征,解决接续运输运力配置协同优化与效率提升问题,基于高铁枢纽接续出行问卷调查数据,引入上次接续属性、接续方式主观重要度、枢纽服务满意度、接续出行选择倾向特征等潜在变量因素,构建考虑心理倾向的结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model,SEM)和抵站旅客接续出行方式选择多项Logit(Multinomial Logit,MNL)模型相融合的SEM-MNL模型,定量计算枢纽抵站旅客接续出行分方式选择效用函数,预测不同时段旅客接续出行方式选择概率,并对比分析SEM-MNL模型与MNL模型命中率.研究结果表明:引入心理倾向潜在变量后,模型的整体命中率提升了4.6%;对枢纽环境服务满意度越高、接续方式服务重视程度越高、上次出行的时间和距离更短且使用公共交通的出行者,更倾向于选择公共交通方式.通过方式选择模型预测分方式的接续出行需求,开展对外客运枢纽接续运输保障和多模式运力的协调调度,对于实现枢纽接续客流与运力资源的供需平衡,继而提升接续服务质量具有重要意义.
To understand the travel mode choice characteristics of passengers arriving at transportation hubs and address the optimization and efficiency improvement of transport capacity allocation,data from high-speed rail hub travel questionnaires are analyzed.Latent variables including the attributes of previous connections,the subjective importance of connection modes,hub service satisfaction,and travel choice tendencies are introduced.A Structural Equation Model(SEM) that considers psychological tendencies is constructed and integrated with a Multinomial Logit(MNL) model,creating a combined SEM-MNL model.This model quantitatively calculates the utility functions for different travel mode choices of arriving passengers,predicts the probability of choosing various modes of travel at different times,and compares the hit rate of the SEM-MNL model with that of the MNL model.The results show that incorporating psychological tendency variables improves the overall hit rate of the model by 4.6%.Passengers with higher satisfaction with hub services,greater importance placed on connection services,shorter travel time and distance in their previous trip,and those using public transport are more likely to choose public transport modes.Predicting travel mode demand using the mode choice model and ensuring transport capacity coordination at passenger hubs is crucial for balancing supply and demand between passenger flow and capacity resources,thereby improving service quality.
作者
翁剑成
马靖媛
潘晓芳
孙宇星
柴娇龙
WENG Jiancheng;MA Jingyuan;PAN Xiaofang;SUN Yuxing;CHAI Jiaolong(Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Yantai Joy City Co.,Ltd.,Yantai Shandong 264099,China;Beijing Transportation Development Center,Beijing 100161,China)
出处
《北京交通大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期32-42,共11页
JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY
基金
国家自然科学基金(52072011)
北京市博士后工作经费资助项目(2022-ZZ-087)。
关键词
城市交通
出行方式选择
结构方程模型
接续运输
城市客运枢纽
urban transportation
travel mode choice
structural equation modeling
continuous trans-portation
urban passenger hubs
