摘要
伴随“乌卡”时代的到来,未来充满不确定性、模糊性、易变性、复杂性等诸多挑战,复杂系统管理理念应运而生,旨在以系统思维,运用相关方法与手段,确保工程项目按时、按质、按量达到预期目标。由于复杂系统管理理念在工程中实践的时间还比较短、案例相对少,大多数工程从业者知之甚少。因此,以复杂工程——上海市外环路北翟路改建项目为载体,运用复杂系统管理理念,探讨其在实际工程的应用,通过ICEDSS(智能综合评价决策支持系统)评估体系,借助NN(神经网络)进行学习,选择出“综合最优解”方案,不仅达到高质量管理该工程的目的,而且将北翟路交叉口早晚高峰期平均拥堵时间降低35%左右、北临空经济示范区车辆通过临虹路以南新增匝道进入快速路网的时间缩短20~30min。
With the advent of the"VUCA"era,characterized by volatility,uncertainty,complexity,and ambiguity,the concept of complex system management has emerged,aiming to employ systematic thinking,along with relevant methods and tools,to ensure that projects achieve their expected goals in terms of time,quality,and quantity.Given that the application of complex system management in engineering is relatively new and the number of case studies is limited,many engineering practitioners are not yet familiar with it.This paper uses the complex project of the Shanghai Outer Ring Beizhai Road Reconstruction as a case study to explore the application of complex system management in practical engineering.Through the ICEDSS(Intelligent Comprehensive Evaluation Decision Support System)and the use of neural networks(NN)for learning and selecting the"comprehensive optimal solution,"the project achieves high-quality management.Additionally,it reduces the average congestion time at the Beizhai Road intersection by approximately 35%during peak hours and shortens the time for vehicles entering the expressway network through the new ramp south of Linhong Road in the North Airport Economic Demonstration Zone by 20 to 30 minutes.
作者
孙文臣
SUN Wenchen(Administrative Service Center of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing,Urban-Rural Development and Management,Shanghai 200032,China)
出处
《建筑施工》
2024年第10期1721-1723,1727,共4页
Building Construction
关键词
乌卡时代
复杂系统管理理念
工程管理
智能综合评价决策支持系统
VUCA era
complex system management concept
project management
intelligent comprehensive evaluation decision support system
