摘要
采用蒙特卡洛法对高速公路车辆轨迹数据进行预处理,模拟得出车流量的时间分布特征和空间分布特征.采用二分法遍历车辆轨迹数据,得出各电子收费系统(ETC)门架的漏失记录率以及最易被漏失的车型.建立收费站车流量与所有收费站总车流量的多元线性回归模型,得出收费站车流量与所有收费站总车流量的关系.建立各收费站车道数量和应急收费系统数量的单目标规划模型,得出收费站通行顺畅且车道和应急收费系统建设费用最少时,各收费站车道数量以及应急收费系统数量.采用G(1,1)灰色模型预测出15个收费站间各路段未来24 h的车流量变化趋势,其与实际车流量变化趋势基本吻合,因此可将各路段预测车流量作为参考,为高速公路管理部门改进交通状况提供改进依据.
Monte Carlo method is used to preprocess the track data of expressway vehicles,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of traffic flow are simulated.By traversing the vehicle track data with dichotomous method,the loss record rate of each electronic toll system(ETC)door frame and the vehicle type of the most easily lost are obtained.The relationship between toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations is obtained through establishing the multiple linear regression model of toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations.Establishing the single objective planning model of the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system,the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system are obtained when the toll stations are smooth and the construction cost of lane and emergency toll collection system are the least.G(1,1)gray model is used to predict the variation trend of traffic flow in each section of 15 toll stations in next 24 hours,which is basically consistent with the actual traffic flow variation trend.Therefore,the predicted traffic flow in each section could be used as a reference to provide improvement basis for highway management departments to improve traffic conditions.
作者
解慧
张建国
刘永兴
安贤贤
冯雯丽
王刚刚
XIE Hui;ZHANG Jian-guo;LIU Yong-xing;AN Xian-xian;FENG Wen-li;WANG Gang-gang(Mathematics Department;Physics Department,Jinzhong University,Jinzhong,Shanxi 030619,China)
出处
《石家庄学院学报》
CAS
2024年第6期68-74,共7页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University
