摘要
近年来,中国经济发展步入新常态,经济增长从高速增长换挡到中高速增长,同时出口增速也开始放缓。在此种放缓趋势与构建“双循环”新发展格局的背景下,出口结构升级的重要性和必要性得到凸显。文章系统分析了自改革开放以来特别是近二三十年来中国出口结构的演变趋势,并着重研究了出口商品结构、加工贸易出口、出口多元化和出口技术复杂度这几个指标的动态特征。研究表明,改革开放以后中国出口结构产生了重大调整,转型升级取得了一定成效。具体而言,资源密集型和劳动密集型产品的出口份额逐渐下降,中高技术制成品的出口份额逐渐上升;“两头在外”的加工贸易模式逐步改善,相比于加工贸易,一般贸易逐渐成为出口构成的主体;由出口相对单一的产品和目标市场转向更加多元化的产品和市场;出口产品的技术含量也越来越高,已逐步追赶上发达的工业化国家,中国出口结构不断优化升级。在此基础上,文章对国内产业结构持续升级、国际外部环境发生重大变化的新形势下出口可能会出现的特征和趋势进行了展望。
In recent years,China’s economic development has entered a“new normal”,with economic growth shifting from high-speed to medium-high-speed,accompanied by a slowdown in export growth.Against the backdrop of this slowing trend and the construction of the“dual circulation”development pattern,the importance and necessity of upgrading the export structure have become increasingly prominent.This paper systematically analyzes the evolution of China’s export structure since the reform and opening-up,particularly over the past two to three decades.The focus is on the dynamic characteristics of key indicators such as the structure of export commodities,processing trade exports,export diversification,and the technological complexity of exports.The research reveals that significant adjustments have been made to China’s export structure since the reform and opening-up,with notable progress in transformation and upgrading.Specifically,the share of resource-intensive and labor-intensive products in exports has gradually declined,while the share of medium to high-tech manufactured goods has increased.The“two ends outside”processing trade model has improved,with general trade becoming the primary component of exports compared to processing trade.Additionally,China’s export portfolio has shifted from a relatively singular focus on products and target markets to a more diversified range of products and markets.The technological content of export products has also risen,gradually catching up with advanced industrialized nations,leading to the continuous optimization and upgrading of China’s export structure.Based on these findings,the paper also provides an outlook on the potential characteristics and trends of China’s exports in light of the ongoing domestic industrial upgrading and significant changes in the international environment.
作者
张松
ZHANG Song(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China)
出处
《重庆邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第6期139-154,共16页
Journal of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Science Edition)
基金
中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目:双向FDI对中国出口多元化的影响研究(2023YQNQD059)。
关键词
出口结构
转型升级
对外贸易
结构变迁
export structure
transformation and upgrading
international trade
structural change
