摘要
目的:预测未来十年(2019-2028)北京市失能老人的规模结构,以及对长期照护服务的需求情况,旨在为失能老人及其长期照护需求的预测提供参考。方法:基于2011年和2018年的中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)以及北京市2011年至2022年的统计年鉴数据,采用Markov模型和时间序列预测模型(ARIMA)对北京市未来10年失能老年人数量进行预测,并通过宏观模拟方法对其长期照护服务需求进行预测。结果:北京市未来10年失能老人规模持续上涨,轻度、中度和重度失能老人数分别从2019年的64.29万人、47.3万人和102.12人增至2028年的91.21万人、58.05万人和177.95万人。同时,北京市失能老人长期护理服务成本由2019年的90 839.84百万元将增至2028年的227 010.52百万元,养老机构护理型床位需求量也将逐年递增,预计到2028年,需求量将达到3.04万至10.14万张。结论:人口老龄化趋势下,长期照护服务资源供给与养老需求之间的匹配亟待解决,为实现健康老龄化提供可靠依据。
Objective:To predict the size and structure of disabled elderly people and their demand for long-term care services in Beijing in the next ten years(2019-2028),and to provide reference for forecasting disabled elderly people and their long-term care needs.Methods:Based on the data of the 2011 and 2018 CLHLS and the Beijing Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2022,Markov Model and Time Series Prediction Model(ARIMA)were used to predict the number of disabled elderly people in Beijing in the next 10 years.The long-term care service demand was predicted by macroscopic simulation method.Results:The number of elderly individuals with disabilities in Beijing was projected to rise significantly over the next decade.Specifically,the mildly,moderately,and severely disabled populations were expected to increase from 642,900,473,000,and 1,021,200 in 2019 to 912,100,580,500,and 1,779,500 in 2028,respectively.Meanwhile,the cost of long-term care services for this population was anticipated to increase from 90.84 billion yuan in 2019 to 227.01 billion yuan in 2028.Additionally,the demand for nursing care beds in nursing institutions was projected to grow annually,with estimates suggesting a need for 30,400 to 101,400 beds by 2028.Conclusion:Under the trend of population aging,the matching between the supply of long-term care service resources and the demand for elderly care needs to be solved urgently,so as to provide a more reliable basis for the realization of healthy aging.
作者
蔡娇丽
肖芯兰
CAI Jiaoli;XIAO Xinlan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《中国健康心理学杂志》
2024年第12期1761-1767,共7页
China Journal of Health Psychology
基金
2020-2022年度北京市社会科学基金项目(编号:19SRC019)。
关键词
失能老人
人口老龄化
长期照护服务需求
时间序列预测模型
Population aging
Disabled elderly people
Long-term care service needs
Time series prediction model
