摘要
为了解析交通事故中伤亡与原因之间的关系,基于真实交通事故数据建立贝叶斯结构方程模型。分析道路、车辆类型、驾驶员、道路环境等交通因素对事故伤亡程度直接或间接的影响方式并通过耦合模型进行耦合。结果表明,事故发生的概率并非单一变量的简单叠加,某一影响性较弱因素可通过与其他因素的结合提升总体的事故严重性。当道路等级较高、道路照明条件较好、车辆类型为小汽车且驾驶员性别为男的组合类型时,显著性最强,在此组合类型下耦合协调系数值最大为0.486;当道路等级较高、事故发生当日为周末,车辆类型为小汽车且驾驶员年龄小于25岁的组合类型时,显著性最弱,此组合类型下耦合协调系数值最小为0.355。
To analyze the injury and death factors in traffic accidents and the interrelationships between these factors,a Bayesian structural equation model is established based on real traffic accident data to analyze the direct or indirect influence modes of traffic factors such as roads,vehicle types,drivers,and road environments on the degree of accident casualties.And coupling is carried out through a coupling model.The results show that the probability of an accident occurrence is not a simple superposition of a single variable.A relatively weak influencing factor can increase the overall accident severity by combining with other factors.When the road grade is higher,the road lighting conditions are better,the vehicle type is a car and the driver’s gender is male,the combination type has the strongest significance.Under this combination type,the coupling coordination coefficient has the largest value of 0.486.When the road grade is higher,the day of the accident is on the weekend,the vehicle type is a car and the driver’s age is less than 25 years old,the combination type has the weakest significance.Under this combination type,the coupling coordination coefficient has the smallest value of 0.355.
作者
赵兰桐
宋熙燕
ZHAO Lantong;SONG Xiyan(College of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)
出处
《微型电脑应用》
2024年第11期210-212,225,共4页
Microcomputer Applications
关键词
安全工程
事故风险
影响因素
贝叶斯结构方程模型
耦合模型
safety engineering
accident risk
influencing factor
Bayesian structural equation model
coupling model
