摘要
针对水库大坝逐渐老化、自身风险和运行成本不断增加的情况,为了进一步明确水库大坝运行的经济性,构建了一种考虑潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化模型。首先,综合考虑大坝潜在溃坝的影响,根据ISM理论明确了水库大坝运行成本与收益影响因素之间的相互作用关系,确定了水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化指标;其次,基于DEMATEL法分析了各因素之间的相互作用程度,明确了各成本与收益指标之间相对重要程度;最后,结合技术经济学理论,计算了潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本和综合收益。将所提模型应用于国内某水库,计算了该水库的运行综合成本和综合收益,并对其经济性进行了分析,结果表明:在考虑潜在溃坝损失的情况下,该水库运行综合成本为743.62万元,综合收益为10911.83万元,收益成本比为14.67,运行综合收益远大于运行综合成本,创收能力良好,经济效益显著。
For the problems of gradual aging of reservoir dams and increasing risks and operation costs,a model to quantify the comprehensive costs and benefits of reservoir dam operation considering potential dam breach losses was constructed.Firstly,the impact of potential dam failure breach was considered comprehensively,the interaction relationship between the cost and benefit influencing factors of reservoir dam operation according to the ISM theory was clarified,and the quantitative indicators of the integrated comprehensive cost and integrated benefit of reservoir dam operation were determined.Secondly,the degree of interaction between the factors was analyzed based on the DEMATEL method,which clarified the relative importance between each cost and benefit indicator.Finally,the comprehensive cost and benefit of reservoir dam operation with potential dam breach losses were calculated in combination with the techno-economic theory.The model was applied to a reservoir in China.The comprehensive cost and benefit of the operation of the reservoir operation were calculated,and its economic benefits were analyzed.The results showed that the comprehensive cost of operating this reservoir was 7436200 Yuan while considering of potential dam failure breach losses,the comprehensive benefit was 109118300 Yuan,and the benefit-cost ratio was 14.67.The comprehensive benefit of operation was much larger than the comprehensive cost of operation,the revenue-generating capacity was good,and the economic benefits were significant.
作者
葛巍
孙贺强
李永闯
景来红
李宗坤
王建有
GE Wei;SUN Heqiang;LI Yongchuang;JING Laihong;LI Zongkun;WANG Jianyou(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone Science and Technology Innovation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 451162,China)
出处
《郑州大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2025年第1期59-66,共8页
Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079127,U2243244)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2023M731259)
河南省自然科学基金资助项目(232300421067)。
关键词
水库大坝
成本收益
量化方法
自身风险
溃坝
reservoir dam
cost benefit
quantitative method
own risk
dam breach
