摘要
基于2001—2019年面板数据,运用Tapio模型测度江浙地区碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应,重点解析其市域时空演变特征。研究显示,自2006年起,江浙地区实现碳排放与经济增长的脱钩;不过,多数时期表现为弱脱钩。地市逐期脱钩效应高低不同,如研究期内杭州脱钩比例近九成,徐州、连云港、宿迁、温州和衢州不足六成;且2013年后以强脱钩为主。地市分时段脱钩效应呈现“大幅改善-微幅恶化-基本平稳”的演变态势,其主要原因在于舟山、徐州、淮安、盐城、镇江、连云港与宿迁地市相应时段脱钩效应出现退化;与江苏相比,分时段脱钩效应浙江更佳,如杭州均处于脱钩状态,且后两时段表现为强脱钩;徐州、淮安和镇江相对欠缺,“十三五”期间其脱钩状态均退化为扩张连接。在此基础上,提出相应对策。
Based on panel data from 2001 to 2019,the Tapio model was applied to measure the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions,focusing on analyzing the characteristics of their municipal spatio-temporal evolution.The results show that the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been realized since 2006.However,the decoupling is weak in most periods.The period-by-period decoupling effect of cities varies distinctly,for example,the decoupling ratio of Hangzhou in the study period is nearly 90%,while that of Xuzhou,Lianyungang,Suqian,Wenzhou and Quzhou is less than 60%,and strong decoupling is dominant after 2013.The time-period decoupling effect of cities shows an evolution of‘substantial improvement-slight deterioration-basically stable’,mainly due to the deterioration of decoupling effect of Zhoushan,Xuzhou,Huai’an,Yancheng,Zhenjiang,Lianyungang and Suqian.Compared with Jiangsu,Zhejiang has better decoupling effects by time period,such as Hangzhou is in decoupling status,and the last two time periods show strong decoupling.Xuzhou,Huai’an and Zhenjiang are relatively weak,and all of them are degraded to expanding connections during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.On this basis,corresponding countermeasures are proposed.
作者
杨娟
王菲菲
籍艳丽
YANG Juan;WANG Feifei;JI Yanli(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu 215500,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2025年第2期137-142,共6页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
常熟理工学院毕业论文重点资助课题(WG2024014)。
