摘要
“双积分”政策影响了传统燃油车企业和新能源汽车企业在市场上的竞争博弈关系和相关的决策行为,现有研究忽视了两类汽车交叉需求影响因素,无法为其提供全面的决策指导。在假设存在交叉需求影响的情况下,根据汽车制造商采用自主研发或外包的方式来获取新能源汽车的电池供应以及是否考虑“双积分”政策,构建了不同情境下汽车制造商的决策模型,并通过不同模型的解析对比和数值分析来验证结论。研究表明:在“双积分”政策背景下,消费者低碳偏好和续航能力偏好在一定条件下会对燃油车的减排水平和新能源汽车的续航能力产生正向影响;严苛排放标准上限并不一定能促使企业提高减排水平,宽松的排放标准上限反而可能有效;新能源汽车比例参数的影响与排放标准上限影响机制相反;积分核算系数正向影响新能源汽车续航能力,并在一定条件下正向影响燃油车的减排水平;“双积分”政策能够消除部分非合作汽车供应链中的双边效应,且随着消费者续航能力偏好的提高,“双积分”政策下一体化决策优势更加凸显。
The"double credits"policy has influenced the competitive game relationships and related decision-making behaviors of tradi-tional fuel vehicle enterprises and new energy vehicle enterprises in the market.Existing research overlooks the cross-demand between the two types of vehicles,failing to provide comprehensive decision-making guidance.Assuming the existence of cross-demand effects,decision-making models for automobile manufacturers are constructed under different scenarios based on whether automakers adopt in-house R&D or outsourcing to obtain battery supplies for new energy vehicles,and whether the"double credits"policy is considered.The conclusions are verified through analytical comparisons and numerical analysis of different models.The research indicates that,in the context of the"double credits"policy,consumer preferences for low carbon and mileage range can positively impact the emission reduction levels of fuel vehicles and the mileage range of new energy vehicles under certain conditions.Stringent emission standard caps do not necessarily prompt enterprises to improve their emission reduction levels;conversely,lenient emission standard caps may be ef-fective.The impact of the new energy vehicle proportion parameter is opposite to the impact mechanism of the emission standard cap.The credit calculation coefficient positively influences the mileage range of new energy vehicles and,under certain conditions,positive-ly affects the emission reduction levels of fuel vehicles.The"double credits"policy can eliminate some bilateral effects in non-coopera-tive automotive supply chains,and as consumer preferences for driving range increase,the advantages of integrated decision-making under the"double credits"policy become more prominent.
作者
高学贤
GAO Xuexian(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China)
出处
《中国石油大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第1期19-30,共12页
Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)
关键词
“双积分”政策
研发策略
减排水平
续航能力
the"double credits"policy
R&D strategy
emission reduction level
mileage range
