摘要
在特朗普2.0时代,提升中间品进口供应链韧性对于保障中国经济安全、促进国内国际双循环具有重要的现实意义。本文区分了全球供应集中度和进口来源集中度,构建了一个可用于分析中间品进口供应链韧性的基本框架,利用CEPII BACI数据库的基础数据实际测算了1995—2022年中国中间品进口供应链韧性,并进一步分析了中国中间品进口供应链韧性的影响因素。研究结论如下:从演进趋势来看,1995—2022年,中国中间品进口供应链韧性逐渐提升,总体处于安全范畴,但极易受外部冲击影响。从影响因素来看,中国进口供应链韧性的主要影响因素为进口来源集中度。近年来,该因素对中国中间品供应链韧性的提升作用有所降低。“一带一路”倡议为稳定中国中间品进口供应链韧性作出积极贡献。西方发达国家极限施压的负面影响不容小觑。因此,应采取差异化政策,提升中间品进口供应链韧性;深挖潜力,努力从内部寻找替中间品;争取最大可能地与西方发达国家开展产业合作;加大国际合作力度,持续拓展进口中间品的全球来源;强化新质生产力的赋能作用,提升中间品供应链韧性。本文的研究有助于客观评估中国中间品进口供应链韧性,并为提升产业链供应链韧性提供决策参考。
The import of intermediate goods plays an extremely important role in the high-quality development of Chinas economy.However,with the increasing complexity of international economic and trade frictions,the COVID-19 pandemic,the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,the global supply chain of intermediates has shown an obvious“inward”trend,which has brought serious threats to Chinas economic security such as semiconductor intermediates and key components.It is necessary to comprehensively calculate the resilience and security of Chinas imported intermediate goods and explore the hidden risks behind them,which is the key to ensuring the safety of the supply chain.This paper focuses on the core question of“how to calculate the resilience of Chinas intermediate goods import supply chain”.After distinguishing the differences between import source concentration and global supply concentration,the paper constructs a basic framework for analyzing the resilience of intermediate goods import supply chains.Then,using the basic data provided by the CEPII BACI database from 1995 to 2022,this paper finds that:(1)The resilience of Chinas intermediate goods import supply chain shows an upward trend,but it is highly susceptible to external shocks;(2)By distinguishing products,although many imported intermediate goods belong to the safety category,the risks are still in some middle-level resilience of intermediate goods;(3)Further distinguishing the differences in factor intensity,it is found that the highest resilience is the labor-intensive intermediate goods,followed by the capital-and technology-intensive ones.Among capital-and technology-intensive intermediate goods,the import supply chain resilience of photoelectric,electronic,computer-integrated manufacturing,and material technology is relatively low,indicating high security risks.The policy implications are as follows.Given the critical role of import diversification in enhancing the resilience of the intermediate goods import supply chain,it can be foreseen that Chinas intermediate goods import security will be significantly enhanced through the further promotion of a more extensive,wide-ranging,proactive,controllable opening strategy in the future.At the same time,for the higher concentration of intermediate goods,it is necessary to explore new products or find new alternatives to improve the reliability of the intermediate goods supply chain,especially by strengthening the empowering role of new quality productive forces.Additionally,there are different comparative advantages between China and Western economies such as the United States and Germany in the global supply chain system of high-tech intermediate goods.If cooperation can be strengthened,it will greatly help stabilize the intermediate goods supply chain system in various countries and even the world.
作者
项松林
苏立平
XIANG Songlin;SU Liping(Institute for International Strategic Studies,Party School of the CPC Central Committee(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China)
出处
《财经问题研究》
北大核心
2025年第2期80-91,共12页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
基金
北京市社会科学基金一般项目“数字化转型驱动北京市产业链供应链韧性和安全水平提升研究”(23JJB010)。
关键词
中间品进口
供应链韧性
进口来源集中度
全球供应集中度
intermediate goods import
supply chain resilience
import source concentration
global supply concentration
