摘要
选用1961—2021年辽宁省61个国家级气象站逐日降水资料,采用百分位数法、标准化处理方法、相关系数法和权重综合指数法,选取辽宁省区域暴雨过程的最大过程降水量、最大日降水量、最大小时降水量、暴雨范围及持续时间5项评估指标,建立该地区区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量评估模型,分析辽宁省区域性暴雨综合强度时空变化特征。结果表明:辽宁省区域性暴雨过程出现在4—11月,持续日数一般为1~4 d,暴雨范围一般为4~30站,暴雨频次和综合强度均为夏季最高、秋季次之、春季最少。区域性暴雨过程造成暴雨以上量级的强降水主要发生在辽宁东南部,其中,春季强降水多发生在辽宁南部,夏、秋季则多发生在辽宁东南部。辽宁省区域性暴雨过程频次和强度均存在显著的年代际变化,20世纪70年代区域性暴雨频次偏少,80年代初至今整体偏多;20世纪70年代中期至21世纪初的区域暴雨综合强度偏强,21世纪以来整体偏弱。
This study uses daily precipitation data from 61 national meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2021.A range of methods,including the percentile method,standardization processing method,correlation coefficient method,and weighted comprehensive index method were employed.Five assessment indicators for regional heavy rainfall events in Liaoning province were selected:maximum event precipitation,maximum daily precipitation,maximum hourly precipitation,heavy rain coverage,and duration.A quantitative assessment model for regional heavy rainfall events was established to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the comprehensive intensity of regional heavy rainfall in Liaoning province.The results indicate that regional heavy rainfall events in Liaoning province occur from April to November,with a general duration of 1 to 4 days and a coverage of 4 to 30 stations.The frequency and comprehensive intensity of heavy rainfall are highest in summer,followed by autumn,and lowest in spring.Heavy precipitation levels above the heavy rain threshold are most frequent in the southeastern part of Liaoning,with strong precipitation more common in the southern part during spring,and in the southeastern part during summer and autumn.There is a significant interdecadal variation in the frequency and intensity of regional heavy rainfall events in Liaoning province.In the 1970s,heavy rainfall events were less frequent,whereas from the early 1980s to the present,they have been more frequent.The comprehensive intensity of regional heavy rain was stronger from the mid^(-1)970s to the early 21st century,and has been weaker since the start of the 21st century.
作者
李倩
林益同
周晓宇
房一禾
LI Qian;LIN Yitong;ZHOU Xiaoyu;FANG Yihe(Climate Center of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110166,China;Key Open Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research,Shenyang 110166,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2024年第6期53-61,共9页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
辽宁省市场监督管理局2021年辽宁省地方标准制修订项目“区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估规范(2021339)”(辽市监发[2021]19)
辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(202106、BA202103)共同资助。
关键词
降水量
暴雨范围
暴雨频率
暴雨强度
Precipitation
Heavy rain coverage
Heavy rain frequency
Heavy rain intensity assessment
