摘要
房地产市场各项活动与经济社会发展的协调性,以及各项活动之间相互的协调性,是判别市场态势的基础。房地产市场一些问题的产生,其本质是本该协调的相关因素处于不协调状态。本研究旨在讨论房地产市场协调性的分析方法,探究单一统计指标相关的变量关系,并通过单一统计指标与其他统计指标之间相对关系,判断房地产市场的边际变化。根据相关性与相对性原则,对住房供给与人口增长、住房价格与收入、房租与收入、待售与销售量、住宅用地供应与人口增长、地价与房价、租金与房价、住房贷款余额与居民家庭可支配收入、房地产开发企业资金到位与资金需求、房地产投资与固定资产投资、居住消费支出与居民家庭消费总支出、房地产税收与税收总额、土地出让收入与财政收入这13个关系,拟定了协调性指标并给出了定义和分析方法。
The coordination between various activities in the real estate market and economic and social development,as well as the coordination between various activities,is the basis for judging market trends.The emergence of some problems in the real estate market is essentially due to the fact that the relevant factors that should have been coordinated are in an uncoordinated state.The purpose of this study is to discuss the analysis methods for the coordination of the real estate market,explore the variable relationships related to a single statistical indicator,and determine the marginal changes in the real estate market through the relative changes between a single statistical indicator and other statistical indicators.Based on the principles of correlation and relativity,coordination indicators have been developed and definitions and analysis methods have been provided for 13 relationships,including housing supply and population growth,housing price growth and income growth,rent growth and income growth,unsold rate growth,residential land supply and population growth,land price growth and housing price growth,rent to sale ratio,housing loan balance growth and household disposable income growth,funding availability rate of real estate development enterprises,proportion of real estate investment,proportion of housing consumption expenditure,contribution of real estate taxation,and proportion of land transfer income.
出处
《中国房地产金融》
2025年第1期3-12,共10页
China Real Estate Finance
关键词
房地产市场协调性
房地产相关统计指标的关系
房地产相关关系的边际变化
Real estate market coordination
relationships between real estate related statistical indicator
marginal changes in related relationships
