摘要
根据2017年12月1日—2023年12月31日南水北调中线工程渠首水温资料和浙川的气温资料,基于皮尔逊相关性分析和多元线性回归分析,综合研究渠首水温的变化趋势和周期性特征,并探讨气温和水温的关系。结果表明,南水北调中线渠首水温随着季节更迭展现出循环且规律性的变化,春夏时节水温波动幅度大。在多日移动平均气温中,60d移动平均气温和渠首水温的相关性最高。以60d移动平均气温和多组移动平均气温分别作为自变量,渠首水温作为因变量的回归模型R^(2)的值均大于0.965,对水温变化的解释性较好。用2023年的水温数据对模型进行检测,2组模型的确定性系数Dc均在0.96以上,推算值和实测值拟合度较好。未来1~7d气温预报误差对模型的影响为2.8%,对模型影响小,使用气温模型和气象部门发布的气温预报来进行渠首水温7d及其以内预报可行。
Based on the water temperature data at the head of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project from December 1,2017 to December 31,2023,and the temperature data in Xichuan,Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis are used to comprehensively study the trend and periodic characteristics of water temperature at the head of the canal,and explore the relationship between temperature and water temperature.The results show that the water temperature at the head of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project shows cyclic and regular changes with the change of seasons,with large fluctuations in water temperature during spring and summer.Among the multi day moving average temperatures,the correlation between the 60 d moving average temperature and the head water temperature is the highest.The regression models with 60 d moving average temperature and multiple sets of moving average temperature as independent variables,and channel head water temperature as the dependent variable,all have R^(2)values greater than 0.965,indicating good explanatory power for water temperature changes.The model was tested using water temperature data from 2023,and the coefficient of certainty(Dc)of both models was above O.96,indicating a good fit between the calculated and measured values.The impact of future 1 to 7 d weather temperature forecast errors on the model is 2.8%,with little impact on the model.It is feasible to use temperature models and temperature forecasts issued by meteorological departments to forecast the water temperature at the canal head for 7 days or less.
作者
高杰培
魏世祎
朱昊哲
GAO Jiepei;WEI Shiyi;ZHU Haozhe(China South-to-North Water Diversion Group Middle Line Co.,Ltd.,Henan Branch,Zhengzhou 450016,China;China South-to-North Water Diversion Group Middle Line Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》
2024年第S2期56-63,共8页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
南水北调工程
渠首
水温
气温
South-to-North Water Transfers Project
canal head
water temperature
air temperature
