摘要
现有的水资源脆弱性评价大多聚焦于某一特定区域进行研究,在空间尺度上不具有普适性和可推演性。针对已有评价方法空间差异性辨识能力差和空间尺度无法自适应的问题,构建基于敏感性压力、水资源禀赋状态和适应性响应的空间无关性评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和熵权法确定权重,并借助网格化思想及GIS空间计算能力将各种因子整合到统一的空间框架中,通过逐格网单元线性加权实现水资源脆弱性的网格化评价。结果显示:总体上受水区西部的脆弱性高于东部,呈现出以星云湖为中心向东部逐渐降低的分布格局;全年脆弱性强度呈现出明显的季节性变化特征,冬春季节高于夏秋季节;星云湖流域及周边地区水资源脆弱性显著高于其他地区。该方法可为区域水资源脆弱性评价提供一种新的思路,为引调水工程水资源的合理分配和受水区水资源的规划管理提供决策支撑。
Evaluating the vulnerability of water resources is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and effectively managing water security risks. The Sixth Assessment Report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations in 2023 underscored that human-induced global warming is intensifying, leading to a greater occurrence of extreme droughts and floods. This phenomenon is contributing to heightened uncertainty and risks related to water supply and management. Yuxi City, located in central Yunnan, is a typical region subject to seasonal water shortages, with uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. The conflict between the water supply and demand is further aggravated under the influence of the monsoon season. Assessing regional water resource vulnerability and uncovering the extent and spatial characteristics of the impacts of climate change and human activities on the water resource system can provide reliable guides for government water resource management, facilitating the sustainable development of water resources.Existing water resource vulnerability assessments primarily focused on specific regions, lacking generalizability and scalability across different spatial scales. To deal with these issues, the paper expanded the concept and connotation of water resource vulnerability. It addressed the deficiencies present in the spatial differentiation capability of current evaluation methods and the inability to adapt to varying spatial scales. A spatially independent evaluation index system was developed based on sensitivity pressure, water resource endowment status, and adaptive response. Eleven indicators were selected and employed, along with the combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and entropy weighting method to determine the weights of these indicators. By leveraging gridbased methodology and GIS spatial computing capabilities, these factors were integrated into a unified spatial framework. A grid-based vulnerability assessment of water resources was achieved through linear weighting of each grid cell, and the results were classified into five categories: non-vulnerable, weakly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, highly vulnerable, and extremely vulnerable. This approach enhanced the spatial differentiation capability of the vulnerability assessment and provided a new perspective for regional water resource vulnerability assessment. It also offered decision-making support for the rational allocation of water resources in water diversion projects and the planning and management of water resources in receiving areas.The proposed method was applied to the Yuxi water-receiving area of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project, leading to the following conclusions:(1) Spatially, significant differences in vulnerability intensity existed among regions, with the western region showing higher vulnerability than the eastern region, forming a distribution pattern that gradually decreased from Xingyun Lake toward the east;(2) Temporally, the intensity of water resource vulnerability exhibited marked seasonal variation, with higher vulnerability during the winter and spring seasons compared to the summer and autumn seasons. Vulnerability peaked in February and was lowest in August.Precipitation and vegetation cover, which are strongly influenced by climate, had significant seasonal variability,with respective weight values of 0.105 9 and 0.064 6, making notable contributions to the seasonal characteristics of the vulnerability results;(3) The Xingyun Lake basin and its surrounding areas showed significantly higher water resource vulnerability than other regions, fluctuating between high and extreme vulnerability throughout the year.The three indicators-water resource utilization rate, per capita water consumption, and hydraulic engineering density-contributed substantially to the vulnerability assessment results.In summary, a multitude of factors influenced the water resource vulnerability, and future measures should aim to reduce human interference and lower the risk of water resource vulnerability in the region. Under the dual pressures of global climate change and socio-economic development, the resilience of the water resource system to environmental changes remained weak, and water resource vulnerability in this context continued to face significant challenges.
作者
陈财莹
喜文飞
顾世祥
钱堂慧
陈晶
吴雷
CHEN Caiying;XI Wenfei;GU Shixiang;QIAN Tanghui;CHEN Jing;WU Lei(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Institute of Water&Hydropower Engineering investigation,Design and Research,Kunming 650021,China;Yunnan Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650021,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》
北大核心
2025年第1期99-109,共11页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41861134008)
滇中引水工程(滇中高原区)高分综合应用示范项目(89-Y50-G31-9001-22/23-05)
云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金(YJSJJ23-B103)。
关键词
GIS
层次分析法
熵权法
网格化方法
水资源脆弱性评价
玉溪市
GIS
analytic hierarchy process
entropy weight method
grid-based approach
water resource vulnerability assessment
Yuxi City
