摘要
2024年中国碳排放权交易市场快速发展:政策上取得重大突破,市场运行法律依据明确;年交易活跃度稳步提升,交易价格突破100元/吨;区域碳市场间差距变大,碳价走势逐渐分化;国家核证自愿减排量市场重启后制度框架和基础设施逐渐完善;碳信用市场不断完善,碳金融不断创新等。展望2030年前的中国碳市场:多重因素支撑碳价上涨;扩大碳市场覆盖范围,促进行业共存与高效减排;配额免费分配与有偿分配共存成为必然发展趋势;国家核证自愿减排量需求温和上行,绿氨等新行业或将被纳入;碳金融产品持续深化创新,碳期货交易提上日程;数字金融引领绿色转型,提升计量、核算等能力。建议宏观层面继续完善中国碳市场制度体系,推动碳金融产品创新,加强碳核算和信息披露,优化碳价形成机制,推进有偿分配和拍卖机制的建立;企业层面要提升碳管理能力,利用碳金融工具进行融资和风险管理,加强碳核算和报告,积极参与碳市场交易,推动技术创新和绿色转型。
The rapid development of China’s carbon emissions trading market in 2024 was characterized by such major breakthroughs in policy and clear legal basis for market operation as a steady increase in annual trading activity and a trading price exceeding RMB 100/ton,a wider gap between regional carbon markets and a gradual differentiation of carbon price trends,the gradual improvement of the institutional framework and infrastructure after the relaunch of CCER market,an ever-improving carbon credit market,and continuous innovations in carbon finance.Looking ahead to China’s carbon market before 2030,multiple factors are expected to underpin the rise of carbon prices.Expanding the coverage of the carbon market will promote the coexistence of industries and efficient emission reduction.Coexistence of free and paid allocation of quotas is anticipated to become an inevitable trend.The demand for CCER will be on the rise moderately,and new industries,such as green ammonia,may be included.Carbon financial products will continue to innovate deeply,the trading of carbon futures will be put on the agenda,and the digital finance will lead the green transition with enhanced capacity of measurement and accounting.It is recommended to continue to improve China’s carbon market system,promote the innovation of carbon financial products,strengthen carbon accounting and information disclosure,optimize carbon price formation mechanism,and push forward the establishment of offset allocation and auction mechanisms.Enterprises should enhance their carbon management capacity,use carbon finance tools for finance and facilitate risk management,strengthen carbon accounting and reporting,and actively participate in carbon market trading in China’s carbon market.
作者
周新媛
徐东
张庆辰
宋镇
李向瑾
ZHOU Xinyuan;XU Dong;ZHANG Qingchen;SONG Zhen;LI Xiangjin(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;Orient Securities Company Limited)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2025年第1期52-61,共10页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
碳排放权交易
碳排放配额
碳价
碳金融
国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)
碳普惠
carbon emission trading
carbon emission quota
carbon price
carbon finance
China certified emission reduction(CCER)
carbon inclusive
