摘要
近年来,中国劳动力供需结构发生了深刻变化,直接影响了生产和贸易格局,并对构建以国内大循环为主体的双循环新发展格局形成了重要制约。本文以中国各行业劳动力供需缺口率为研究对象,通过考察其直接影响、间接影响、异质性影响和当前对劳动力冲击较大的创新活动及人工智能采纳程度发现:第一,行业劳动力供需缺口率会显著提升行业的外循环依存度;第二,行业劳动力供需缺口率通过影响中间品进口比例、劳动力成本、总进口比例进而影响行业外循环依存度;第三,创新技术和人工智能设备的应用在一定程度上可以替代劳动力要素,从而减弱劳动力供需缺口率对外循环依存度的影响。根据研究结论,本文提出如下政策建议:第一,建立劳动力“内汇外引”机制,筑牢社会性流动基础;第二,鼓励技术创新,加快人工智能设备应用;第三,畅通国内大循环,以应对劳动力供需缺口率扩大引发的外循环依存度的提高。
In recent years,China has undergone profound changes in its labor supply and demand structure,directly impacting production and trade patterns and significantly constraining the establishment of a new dual circulation development framework centered on domestic circulation.This study focuses on the labor supply-demand gap rate across various Chinese industries.By investigating the direct,indirect,and heterogeneous effects,as well as the impact of current innovation activities and the adoption of artificial intelligence that significantly affect labor,the findings indicate that the labor supply-demand gap rate within industries significantly increases the industry's dependency on external circulation.Specifically,the labor supply-demand gap rate enhances dependency on external circulation by influencing the proportion of imported intermediate goods,labor costs,and the overall import ratio within the industry.Furthermore,innovation activities and the adoption of intelligent manufacturing equipment,such as industrial robots,can partially substitute labor factors,thereby mitigating the impact of an expanding labor supply-demand gap on dependency on external circulation.Additionally,the widening of the labor supply-demand gap rate compels high-tech industries to engage in innovative activities,thereby reducing reliance on foreign imported products.Since 2010,the impact of the labor supply-demand gap rate on dependency on external circulation has intensified,and compared to other sectors,labor-intensive industries are more significantly and profoundly affected by changes in labor supply and demand in terms of dependency on external circulation.To achieve sustained economic growth,it is particularly important to timely control the rapid increase in dependency on external circulation caused by the expansion of China's labor supply-demand gap rate.Based on these findings,the paper proposes several recommendations.Firstly,establishing a labor"internal circulation and external introduction"mechanism is essential to strengthen the foundation of social mobility and balance the labor supply-demand gap rate.Secondly,encouraging technological innovation and accelerating the adoption of intelligent equipment such as robots can reduce labor demand and address labor shortages in industries.Additionally,facilitating domestic circulation will help weaken the increased dependency on external circulation resulting from higher proportions of imported intermediate goods and overall imports due to the labor supply-demand gap rate.Lastly,promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international dual circulations is crucial to foster positive interactions with international markets and reduce reliance on foreign imported products.
作者
王孝松
王艳艳
余紫菱
WANG Xiaosong;WANG Yanyan;YU Ziling(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Economics and Management,Northwest University)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
北大核心
2025年第1期73-92,共20页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“大国竞合背景下的产业链韧性研究”(72333004)
国家社会科学基金项目“共建‘一带一路’进程中贸易与投资协同发展研究”(23VRC012)的阶段性成果。
关键词
劳动力供需缺口率
中间品进口
“双循环”格局
劳动力成本
labor supply-demand gap rate
imported intermediate goods
"dual circulation"development pattern
labor costs
