摘要
我国提出“碳达峰、碳中和”的发展目标,在控碳减排的同时也要兼顾经济发展,识别经济增长与碳排放关系所处的阶段是实现经济与环境协调发展的关键。本研究以长兴县为例,通过碳排放系数法计算2002-2017年能源消耗碳排放量。利用Tapio模型对长兴县的经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系进行分析;利用对数平均迪式指数分解模型对脱钩弹性指数进行分解,分析经济增长与碳排放脱钩关系的影响因素。研究表明,长兴县碳排放量逐年增加,并呈现增长率逐年降低的趋势;经济增长与碳排放脱钩关系呈现“负脱钩—弱脱钩—连接阶段—弱脱钩”的变化。经济增长速度大于碳排放增长速度,在国家政策的引导下,长兴县碳减排工作取得了初步成效。结合长兴县脱钩关系的影响因素,提出低碳经济发展的建议,为小城镇低碳发展提供借鉴。
China has put forward the development goal of“carbon peak,carbon neutrality”,which should take into account economic development while controlling carbon emissions.Identifying the stage of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is the key to achieve coordinated development of economic and environment.Taking Changxing County as an example,this paper calculates the carbon emissions of energy consumption from 2002 to 2017 using carbon emission coefficient method.The Tapio model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in Changxing County.The Log Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model is used to decompose the decoupling elasticity index,and analyze the influencing factors of the decoupling relationship.The results show that the carbon emissions of Changxing County are increasing,and the growth rate is decreasing year by year.The decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions shows a change of“negative decoupling-weak decoupling-connection stage-weak decoupling”.The economic growth rate is greater than that of carbon emissions.Under the guidance of national policies,the program of carbon emission reduction in Changxing County has achieved initial results.Combined with the influencing factors of the decoupling relationship in Changxing County,this paper puts forward suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy,and provides references for the low-carbon development of small towns.
作者
郭嵘
吴晓晨
GUO Rong;WU Xiaochen(School of Architecture and Design,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China;Key Laboratory of Cold Region Urban and Rural Human Settlement Environment Science and Technology,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Harbin 150001,China)
出处
《黑龙江国土资源》
2024年第3期32-41,共10页
Heilongjiang land and Resources
关键词
碳排放
经济增长
小城镇
脱钩关系
Tapio模型
carbon emissions
economic growth
small towns
decoupling relationship
Tapio model
