摘要
[目的/意义]立足国家战略需求,构建透明化、规范化、可循证的颠覆性技术量化识别方法。[方法/过程]从颠覆性技术的技术突破和场景牵引来源出发,综合采用科技战略动态、科技前沿动态、权威预测清单、重大项目计划指南、揭榜挂帅技术需求清单、美国实体清单、国际智库报告、新闻舆情、企业融资行为等多源情报数据,利用自主研发的重大科技问题智能态势感知与分析平台,遵循“收敛+凝聚”的研究路线,构建一套颠覆性技术量化识别方法,实现颠覆性技术及其下位细粒度科技问题的准确识别。[结果/结论]经应用实证,上述方法的识别结果与相关权威观点中所提到的颠覆性技术具有较高的重合度,且可提供颠覆性技术下位更细粒度的科技问题列表,识别结果可信、可循证、可追溯。同时,上述方法在战略规划研究、问题清单编制等实际工作场景中已有多次应用,进一步验证了方法和流程的有效性和合理性。
[Purpose/significance]Based on the national strategic needs,this paper build a transparent,standardized,and reusable quantitative identification method for disruptive technologies.[Method/process]Starting from the source of technological breakthroughs and scenario traction of disruptive technologies,this paper comprehensively adopts technological strategic dynamics,technological frontier dynamics,authoritative forecast lists,major project planning guidelines,list of technical requirements for unveiling the list,list of U.S.entities,reports from international think tanks,domestic public opinion,corporate financing behavior and other multi-source intelligence data,and uses the self-developed intelligent situation awareness and analysis platform for major scientific and technological issues,following the“convergence+cohesion”research route,to build a set of quantitative identification methods for disruptive technologies,and achieve disruptive technologies accurate identification of technology and its subordinate fine-grained technological issues.[Result/conclusion]After application demonstration,the identification results of the above methods have a high degree of coincidence with the disruptive technologies mentioned in relevant authoritative views,and can provide a list of more fine-grained technological issues under the disruptive technologies.The results are credible,evidence-based and traceable.At the same time,the above methods have been applied many times in actual work scenarios such as strategic planning research and technical list compilation,fully verifying the effectiveness and rationality of the methods and processes.
作者
王燕鹏
王学昭
Wang Yanpeng;Wang Xuezhao(National Science Library,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Department of Information Resources Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)
出处
《情报理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第3期143-150,159,共9页
Information Studies:Theory & Application
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“数智转型背景下智能情报关键技术应用研究”的成果,项目编号:23&ZD228。
关键词
颠覆性技术量化识别
技术突破
场景牵引
多源情报数据
科技问题
quantitative identification of disruptive technologies
technological breakthroughs
scenario traction
multisource intelligence data
technological issues
