摘要
农村人口老龄化使农村产业发展面临农村青壮年劳动力减少和农业劳动力质量下降的双重挑战。从技术水平和人力资本2个层面探究农村人口老龄化对农村产业结构的影响机制,基于2000—2022年全国除港、澳、台地区的31个省份面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型,分析了农村人口老龄化对农村产业结构调整的影响。结果表明:农村人口老龄化会对农村产业结构的高级化和合理化造成影响;中介效应检验结果显示,农村人口老龄化通过人力资本和技术水平2个层面对农村产业结构的优化产生负面影响;农村人口老龄化对农村产业结构调整的影响呈现区域异质性,农村人口老龄化对农村产业合理化的影响仅在西部地区显著,对农村产业高级化影响仅在中、西部地区显著。据此,建议大力推广数字化农业、培养新型高素质职业农民、加快农村地区基础设施建设和发展乡村特色产业等,以期促进农村产业结构升级。
The aging population in rural areas presents a dual challenge for the development of rural industries,characterized by a decline in the availability of young and middle-aged labor force and a deterioration in the quality of agricultural labor.This paper explores the influence mechanism of rural population aging on rural industrial structure from two levels of technical level and human capital.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from 2000 to 2022,this paper examines the impact of rural population aging on the adjustment of rural industrial structure,employing a two-way fixed effect model.The findings indicate that:the aging of the rural population significantly influences both the upgrading and rationalization of rural industrial structures;results from mediation effect tests reveal that this demographic shift negatively affects the optimization of rural industrial structure through its influence on human capital and technological advancement;furthermore,the effects of rural population aging on industrial structure adjustment exhibit regional heterogeneity.The impact of rural population aging on the rationalization of rural industries is notably significant only in the western region,while its effect on the upgrading of rural industries is pronounced solely in the central and western regions.Therefore,it is recommended to actively promote digital agriculture,nurture a new generation of high-quality professional farmers,expedite infrastructure development in rural areas,and cultivate distinctive rural industries to facilitate the enhancement of the rural industrial structure.
作者
李宝礼
裴雨轩
LI Baoli;PEI Yuxuan(School of Finance and Economice,Anhui Science and Technology University,Bengbu 23000,Anhui)
出处
《河北农业大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第1期74-84,共11页
Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)
基金
国家社科基金一般项目:“市场导向驱动绿色技术创新的内在机理与政策优化”(编号:23BJY080)。
关键词
农村产业结构
老龄化
中介效应
区域异质性
rural industrial structure
aging
mediating effect
regional heterogeneity
