摘要
随着以新能源为基础的新型电力系统建设的不断推进,近年来风电、光伏等新能源大规模密集接入系统,这虽然为实现“双碳”目标奠定了坚实的基础,但同时也导致极端天气下新型电力系统调度运行面临的挑战不断增大,其中最易出现的问题是风电爬坡事件概率大幅提升,不仅会造成系统频率的大幅频繁波动,还会影响电力电量平衡,严重威胁系统安全稳定运行。为此,在统计分析风电爬坡事件的基础上,提出基于深度自回归(deep auto-regressive, DeepAR)模型的风电爬坡事件的预测方法。首先,结合风机功率与风速之间的关系,分析极端天气下风电爬坡事件对电网调度运行的影响,再建立风电爬坡事件物理模型,分析发生风电爬坡事件时的风电功率统计特征;然后,结合深度自回归模型对风电爬坡事件进行功率预测,分析极端天气下的风电出力曲线;最后,结合风电场实测数据验证所提方法的有效性。验证表明:采用所提方法可提前精准定位极端天气环境下风电爬坡事件出现概率,预期将极大改善未来新型电力系统调度运行面临的不确定性。
With the continuous development of new power systems based on new energy,large-scale and intensive wind power,photovoltaic,and other new energy access to the system has laid a solid foundation for the realization of the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”goals,but at the same time,it also leads to the increasing challenges faced by the dispatching operation of new power systems under extreme climates,and the most prominent problem is that the probability of wind power ramp events has increased significantly.Wind power ramp events will not only cause great fluctuations in the frequency of the system but also affect the balance of electric power and energy,threatening the safe and stable operation of the system.Through the statistical analysis of wind power ramp events,a predictive method of wind power ramp events based on a deep auto-regressive(DeepAR)model is proposed.Firstly,combined with the relationship between wind power and wind speed,the impact of wind power ramp events on power grid dispatching operations under extreme climates is analyzed.Secondly,a physical model of wind power ramp events is established to analyze the statistical characteristics of wind power when wind power ramp events occur.Then,the DeepAR model is used to perform the power prediction of wind power ramp events,and the wind power output curve under extreme climates is analyzed.Finally,combined with the measured data of the wind power field,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.The verification shows that the proposed method can accurately predict the occurrence probability of wind power ramp events under extreme climates in advance,which is expected to greatly improve the uncertainty faced by the dispatching operation of new power systems in the future.
作者
张勇
孙雁斌
颜融
肖亮
范展滔
方必武
黎立丰
杨再敏
蒙文川
ZHANG Yong;SUN Yanbin;YAN Rong;XIAO Liang;FAN Zhantao;FANG Biwu;LI Lifeng;YANG Zaimin;MENG Wenchuan(Power Dispatching Control Center of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510530,China;Energy Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510530,China)
出处
《电力科学与技术学报》
北大核心
2025年第1期163-172,共10页
Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology
基金
南方电网公司管理创新项目(000000KK52210094)。
关键词
新型电力系统
风力发电
极端天气
风电爬坡
深度自回归模型
new power system
wind power generation
extreme climate
wind power ramp
deep autoregressive model
