摘要
协调县域城镇化与工业化的互动关系,是推动城乡融合发展的关键议题。基于中国1835个县级行政单元(不含市辖区)2000年、2010年和2020年的面板数据,构建乡村相对非农化率指标(即县域人口工业化率与城镇化率的比值),并采用二次多项式回归模型,探讨乡村相对非农化率对城乡收入差距及区域经济发展水平的非线性影响机制,进而测算县域工业化率与城镇化率的最优比值区间。研究发现:(1)县域乡村相对非农化率的最优区间为1.33~1.65,在这一范围内,适度的工业化领先有助于促进经济发展、缩小城乡收入差距。(2)合理的乡村相对非农化水平能够推动城乡融合发展,而城镇化的过度超前或严重滞后均不利于城乡融合。一方面,城镇化滞后会导致乡村企业过疏化,削弱企业间的共享效应,不利于城乡经济协同发展;另一方面,城镇边界的过度扩张会引发“伪镇化”现象,加剧乡村资本消耗,扩大城乡收入差距,抑制区域经济增长。(3)截至2020年,全国约三分之一(567个)县的乡村相对非农化率处于最优区间,46%(847个)县低于该区间,近四分之一(421个)县则超过该区间。推动县域城乡融合发展,要充分考虑各地非农化进程实际,保持县域非农化适度领先,以非农化带动城镇化。
Coordinating the interactive relationship between county-level urbanization and industriralization is a key issue in promoting urban-rural integration.Based on panel data from 1,835 county-level administrative units in China(excluding municipal districts)for the years 2000,2010,and 2020,this study constructs the Industrialization-Urbanization Index(IU).A quadratic polynomial regression model is employed to explore the nonlinear impact of IU on urban-rural income disparity and regional economic development,thereby identifying the optimal ratio range between county-level industrialization and urbanization rates.The findings reveal that the optimal range of the IU index is between 1.33 and 1.65,within which moderate industrialization leadership contributes to economic growth and narrows the urbanrural income gap.Moreover,a reasonable level of IU facilitates urban-rural integration,whereas exces⁃sive urbanization or severe lag in urbanization hinder this process.On one hand,delayed urbanization leads to excessive dispersion of rural enterprises,weakening the sharing effects among enterprises and hindering urban-rural economic synergy.On the other hand,excessive urban expansion can result in“pseudo-urbanization”,exacerbating rural capital depletion,widening the urban-rural income gap,and inhibiting regional economic growth.As of 2020,approximately one-third(567)of counties in China fell within the optimal IU range,while 46%(847)were below this range,and nearly a quarter(421)ex⁃ceeded it.To promote urban-rural integration development at the county level,it is necessary to consider the actual progress of industrialization and urbanization in different regions,maintaining a moderately leading position in county de-agriculturalization to drive urbanization.
作者
李顺强
张琦
鲁煜晨
LI Shunqiang;ZHANG Qi;LU Yuchen
出处
《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第2期1-14,共14页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“伟大脱贫攻坚精神研究”(22ZDA091)。
关键词
城乡融合
县域
工业化
城镇化
协同机制
rural-urban integration
county-level region
industrialization
urbanization
synergistic mechanisms
