摘要
正确预测河型发展趋势,因势利导,是保障河流功能稳定的前提条件。三峡工程等水库运用后,长江中下游干流河道持续长期冲刷,局部河势剧烈调整,可能导致河型转化,进而将对防洪、生态、供水、通航等河流功能的发挥产生一系列影响。对河型成因、分类与判别、转化机理,长期冲刷状态下长江中下游不同河型演化规律与预测方法以及河型转化的影响和治理对策进行了综述。在此基础上,对今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河型亚类细化、非连续约束边界条件下不同河型形态参数对水沙条件等因素变化的响应模式、冲刷过程中长河道纵向冲刷调整对河型转化的作用机制、河型转化临界条件定量识别以及百年尺度河型转化预测方法构建和趋势预估等。
Accurately predicting the development trend of river patterns and leveraging their advantages is a prerequisite for ensuring stable river function.After the operation of the Three Gorges and other reservoirs,the continuous long-term erosion of channels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the drastic adjustments of local river regimes may lead to river pattern transformation.Such transformation will have a series of impacts on river functions such as flood control,ecology,water supply,and navigation.This paper reviews the causes,classification and discrimination,river pattern transformation mechanisms,evolution laws,and prediction methods of different river patterns in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under long-term erosion.It also scrutinizes the impacts of river pattern transformation and corresponding governance strategies.On this basis,several directions for future research are proposed:the refinement of river pattern subcategories,the responses of shape parameters of different river patterns to changes in water and sediment conditions under discontinuous constraint boundaries,effects of longitudinal erosion adjustment of long channels on river pattern transformation,the quantitative identification of critical conditions for river pattern transformation,and prediction methods for century-scale river pattern transformation as well as trend estimation.
作者
金中武
陈栋
郭小虎
刘亚
何子灿
楚栋栋
柯帅
JIN Zhong-wu;CHEN Dong;GUO Xiao-hu;LIU Ya;HE Zi-can;CHU Dong-dong;KE Shuai(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Water Resources on River and Lake Regulation and Flood Control in the Middle and Lower Reaches,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
2025年第3期9-19,共11页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209505)
国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2240206)。
关键词
河型
演化规律
驱动机制
预测方法
治理对策
长江中下游
river pattern
evolution regularities
driving mechanism
prediction methods
governance measures
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
