摘要
极端强降水天气会对电力系统的安全运行造成重大冲击。为量化分析并有效应对极端降雨下电力系统运行的风险,提出考虑电力设施积水故障的电网多时段优化调度方法。首先,使用拉丁超立方抽样法和场景削减方法得到最具代表性的典型极端降雨场景集,结合概率再分配定理计算不同场景集的出现概率。在此基础上,基于暴雨管理模型构建电力设施水淹随机故障生成模型,并使用半不变量与Gram-Charlier级数展开法,计算多时段下电力设施综合停运场景中考虑随机负荷波动的线路潮流越限概率。最后,提出以极端降水场景下最小化切负荷损失为目标的多时段优化调度方法,以改进后的RTS-79系统为例进行仿真计算,验证本文方法的有效性。
Extreme rainfall will have a major impact on the safe operation of power system.To quantitatively analyze and effectively respond to the risks of power system operation under extreme rainfall,a multi-period optimal scheduling method for power grid considering flooding faults in power facilities is proposed.First,the Latin hypercube sampling method and scenario reduction method are used to obtain the most representative set of typical extreme rainfall scenari-os,and the probability of occurrence for different scenario sets is calculated based on the probability redistribution theo-rem.On this basis,a random fault generation model for flooding of power facilities is constructed based on a storm water management model,and the semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier series expansion method are used to calculate the proba-bility of over limit for line power flow considering stochastic load fluctuations under the comprehensive outage scenario of power facilities in multiple periods.Finally,a multi-period optimal scheduling method aimed at minimizing the load shedding losses under extreme rainfall scenarios is put forward.An improved RTS-79 system is taken as an example,and simulation calculations are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
作者
剑锋
蔡亚楠
孙献春
周刚
叶承晋
ZOU Jianfeng;CAI Yanan;SUN Xianchun;ZHOU Gang;YE Chengjin(Jiaxing Power Supply Company,State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Jiaxing 314000,China;Bochuang Materials Branch,Jiaxing Hengchuang Electric Power Group Co.,Ltd.,Jiaxing 314000,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,China)
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期84-92,共9页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3102801)
国网浙江省电力有限公司省管产业单位科技项目(2022-KJLH-BC-012)。
关键词
极端降雨
场景削减
随机潮流
多时段调度
抽水蓄能
extreme rainfall
scenario reduction
stochastic power flow
multi-period scheduling
pumped storage
