摘要
全球变暖背景下,区域极端气候研究对于保障经济社会和生态系统的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文利用历史文献记载和降水数据,重建了1450—2020年中国华南地区发生概率为10%的极端干旱事件序列,并分析了过去570年间华南极端干旱在多百年尺度上的发生特征和驱动因子。主要结论包括:(1) 1450—2020年华南共发生极端干旱事件62年(次),其中,1661—1750年是过去570年间极端干旱事件发生频率最高的时段。(2)华南极端干旱事件在小冰期显示出“冷-极端干旱发生概率上升”,现代暖期则显示出“暖/升温-极端干旱发生概率上升”的特征。(3)华南极端干旱的发生与区域降水变化基本一致,在区域降水偏少或者下降阶段的发生概率会显著上升。(4)在多百年尺度上,印-太暖池SST变化和夏季风变率是影响华南极端干旱事件发生的关键因素。(5)自小冰期到现代暖期,La Ni?a事件对华南极端干旱事件发生的影响不断增强,其发生时西太平洋上的异常气旋式环流削弱了华南地区的水汽输送,直接引发了极端干旱的发生。本文的研究对于认识多百年尺度上南亚热带季风气候区极端气候的发生规律和更好地服务华南的防灾减灾都具有重要意义。
The study of climate extremes in the context of global warming is of great significance for the sustainable development of the regional economy,society and ecosystem.In this paper,we reconstructed the sequence of extreme drought events with 10%probability of occurrence in South China from 1450 to 2020 by using historical documentary records and precipitation data,and analyzed the occurrence characteristics and driving factors of extreme droughts in South China on a multi-centennial scale during the past 570 years.The main conclusions include:(1)A total of 62 years(times)of extreme drought events occurred in South China from 1450 to 2020,of which 1661-1750 was the most frequent period of extreme drought events in the past 570 years.(2)Extreme droughts in South China showed"cold-extreme drought probability increase"during the Little Ice Age,and"cold-extreme drought probability increase"during the Modern Warm Period.During the Little Ice Age,extreme drought events in South China are characterized by"cold-extreme drought probability increase",while the modern warm period is characterized by"warm;warming-extreme drought probability increase".(3)The occurrence of extreme drought events in South China is basically consistent with the regional precipitation changes,and the probability of extreme drought events increases significantly in the stage of low or decreasing regional precipitation.(4)On the multi-hundred-year scale,the change of the SST of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and the variability of summer monsoon are the key factors affecting the occurrence of extreme drought events in South China.(5)The influence of the La Niña event on the occurrence of extreme drought events in South China has been increasing from the Little Ice Age to the Modern Warm Period.An increasing number of extreme drought event years in the modern warm period are occurring in weak La Niña years,a phenomenon that is rare in the Little Ice Age.The anomalous cyclonic circulation in the western Pacific Ocean at the time of the La Niña event weakened the water vapor transport in South China,which directly triggered the occurrence of extreme droughts.The research in this paper is of great significance for recognizing the occurrence pattern of extreme climate in the southern subtropical monsoon climate zone on a multi-centennial scale and better serving the disaster prevention and mitigation in South China.
作者
于翔宇
杨煜达
YU Xiangyu;YANG Yuda(Center for Historical Geographical Studies of Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《地理研究》
北大核心
2025年第3期891-903,共13页
Geographical Research
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD223)。
关键词
华南
极端干旱事件
历史文献记载
ENSO
印-太暖池
South China
extreme drought events
historical documentary records
ENSO
Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
