摘要
特朗普以显著优势赢得2024年美国总统大选,主要得益于他善于利用美国民众的不安全感与被剥夺感,同时诿过于外,宣扬贸易保护、限制移民等政策主张。特朗普的标志性口号“让美国再次伟大”,四年后可能会被新的右翼民粹主义口号所取代,但美国国内围绕身份政治和价值观认同的斗争短期内不会消失。特朗普在第二任期推进宏大的政府改革计划、收紧移民政策绝非易事,既不会改变美国的政治制度和移民国家特性,也不会对美国未来是走向强盛还是衰落发挥决定性作用。尽管特朗普倾向于减少美国在国际事务上的投入,但其外交政策将受到美国国家利益、国内政治精英和国际形势的牵制。特朗普领导下的美国带头冲击现存国际规则与秩序,显然会削弱美国的软实力。但迄今为止,这种做法激起的反弹并不十分强烈,没有看到“群起而攻之”的局面,反而推动了整个世界政治“向右转”的趋势。在对华政策上,特朗普政府将聚焦经贸和技术领域,而非人权和军事安全问题。虽然美国要全力以赴“竞赢”中国,但是中美之间仍存在合作的意愿与可能性。中美学者应开展更多开诚布公的务实交流,以促进两国相互理解,避免误判和冲突。
Donald Trump secured a decisive victory in the 2024 U.S.presidential election,largely due to his ability to capitalize on the insecurity and sense of deprivation felt by the American public,while shifting blame outward and advocating policies such as trade protectionism and immigration restrictions.Trump's signature slogan,“Make America Great Again”,may be replaced by a new right-wing populist catchphrase in four years,but conflicts over identity politics and shared values in the U.S.are unlikely to subside anytime soon.In his second term,advancing an ambitious government reform agenda and tightening immigration policies will be no easy task for Trump.These efforts will neither change the U.S.political system nor its identity as a nation of immigrants,nor will they be the decisive factor in determining whether the country prospers or declines.While Trump is inclined to scale back U.S.involvement in international affairs,his foreign policy will remain constrained by American national interests,domestic political elites,and global dynamics.Under Trump's presidency,the U.S.has taken the lead in challenging existing international rules and order,which will undoubtedly weaken its soft power.However,this approach has so far triggered relatively mild backlash from other countries,with no coordinated opposition,and has,in turn,contributed to a broader global shift toward the right in world politics.Regarding China policy,the Trump administration is expected to focus primarily on trade and technology rather than human rights and military security concerns.Although Washington is determined to“outcompete”Beijing,there remains room for cooperation and a mutual willingness to engage.Scholars from both countries should foster more open and pragmatic exchanges to enhance mutual understanding and reduce the risk of miscalculation and conflict.
作者
《当代美国评论》编辑部
王缉思
Editorial Department of Contemporary American Review
出处
《当代美国评论》
2025年第1期1-21,125,126,共23页
Contemporary American Review
关键词
美国政治
美国社会
美国外交
中美关系
中美人文交流
U.S.Politics
U.S.Society
U.S.Foreign Policy
China-U.S.Relations
China-U.S.People-to-people Exchanges
