摘要
交通流变点就是交通流模型中的某些参数起突然变化之点。在变点附近的局部中 ,某种量有了显著的变化 ;而在非变点的局部中 ,量保持稳定。本文针对ITS开发 ,依据交通流理论并结合均值变点模型 ,建立用局部比较的方法分析交通流突变的变点统计理论。利用某种交通流参数构造有针对性的统计量并考察它在各个局部内的变化 ,取其显著之处作为突变发生位置的估计。使用实测数据对算法进行标定和检验 ,证明方法的有效性。
The change-points of traffic flows are the points of certain parameters in the model of traffic flows that change suddenly.In the local area near the change-points,there are some notable changes,but in the local area near unchanged points,quantities are down kept steady.Based on traffic flow theory,this paper establishes a statistical theory of change-point to analyze traffic flow break with local comparison,use certain kind of parameters to construct specific statistic,investigate its change in every local area,and take the location changed notably as the estimation of change-point.The method is calibrated and also verified with real data of Southampton to test the effectiveness of the theory.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第6期112-115,共4页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
教育部高等学校骨干教师资助计划 (980 )
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (79870 0 4 4 )
关键词
交通流
突变
统计方法
Traffic flow
Breakdown
Statistical method
