摘要
分析并指出了铁路可行性研究中经济评价的局限性 ,提出在着手经济评价的同时 ,应辅之以多目标综合评价以克服经济评价局限性的思想。根据铁路方案综合评价各类指标对评价方法的实用性的分析结果 ,将多种方法组合起来 ,在此基础上提出了一种新的方法——基于灰色和模糊集理论的铁路方案多目标综合评价方法 ,并建立其决策模型 ,编制了该模型的应用软件。最后 ,以某快速客运通道方案评价为实例进行验证 ,结果表明本文建立的模型可以辅助经济评价法获得较为全面的综合评价结果 ,从而克服经济评价的局限性 ,为铁路方案综合评价和投资组合决策 (protfolio decision making)提供了一种新的。
In this thesis, the limitations of the economic evaluation in the railway feasibility study are analyzed and proposed. Based on the analysis of the limitations of the economic evaluation, a new method--the multiple objective decision making method for evaluating railway schemes based on the Grey and Fuzzy Sets Theory is put forward, which means combining various methods into one, and a corresponding model is set up, according to the analytical results from the application of various indexes to evaluation methods of railway schemes and by applying the principle of multiple objective decision making and revolving around the solution of such problem. Also its application software is introduced. Finally, taking the synthetic evaluation of line schemes applied to one express railway passage for example, the results from such experiment can prove that the decision making model put forward in this thesis can be applied to help economic evaluation to get a rather comprehensive assessment results so as to overcome the limitations of the economic assessment, and it is a new and effective method for the railway synthetic evaluation and protfolio decision making.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第5期107-113,共7页
Journal of the China Railway Society
