摘要
本文在分析中国保险业发展现状的基础上,应用多元线性回归模型进行总保费规模预测,同时,根据保费收入的季节变动趋势作分险种季节变动预测。得出结论:2005年我国总保费规模将达到3419亿元,2010年将达到5282亿元;分险种的季节变动指数对保险公司准确地把握新险种的推出时机有很强的指导作用。
Under the discussion of the development of insurance industry in China, the scale of general insurance fee is calculated in use of Polylinear Regress Model. And the prediction of the seasonal fluctuation of diversified insurance types is also obtained on the basis of the seasonal development of insurance income. The conclusion is the following: the scale of China's insurance fee will amount to 03419 trillion in 2005 and to 05282 trillion in 2010; the seasonfluctuating values of diversified insurance types will guide insurance companies to seek favorable chances when promoting new types.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2003年第2期19-22,44,共5页
Forecasting
关键词
保费规模
分险种
趋势
预测
the scale of insurance fee
diversified insurance types
trend
calculation
