摘要
灾害风险是由风险源、风险载体和人类社会的防减灾措施等 3方面因素相互作用而形成的、人们不能确切把握且不愿接受的、一种具有不确定性特征的灾害系统状态。因此 ,用系统学理念来研究灾害风险就需要从灾害风险的成因性要素、影响性要素、描述性要素和评判性要素 4个方面入手逐步地加以系统分析。文章认为 ,风险源及其危险性、风险载体及其脆弱性和人类社会的防减灾措施及其防减灾有效度等 3类要素是灾害风险的成因性要素 ,这些要素首先决定了灾害风险是否存在 ,然后影响灾害风险的类型、特点和大小 ;风险载体的“价值”属性、讨论问题的时间尺度和空间尺度等 3类要素是灾害风险的影响性要素 ,这些要素虽然不是决定灾害风险是否存在的必要条件 ,但却对灾害风险的形式、特点和大小产生深远影响 ;因此 ,从发生学角度 ,在理论上对灾害风险的完整描述应是以上述这 6类要素为变量的某种 6维多变量函数 ;但在具体工作中 ,一般用类型、特点和大小等来刻画灾害风险即可满足实际的风险管理需要。文章最后简要分析了灾害风险的评判性要素—灾害风险的评判标准 ,认为灾害风险的评判标准是正确评价风险和制定对策以便合理调控风险的基本参照。
Disaster risk is a kind of state of disaster-system, which possesses some uncertainty character, and exists before the disaster emerges. Such a state is usually unable to be grasped exactly, and is usually unwillingly to be accepted by the people. It is resulted from the interaction of the risk source, the risk-bearer and the disaster-countermeasures of human society. Thus studying disaster risk is just studying such a state of the disaster-system. More clearly, from the viewpoint of the system theory, the study of disaster risk has to begin with systematically analyzing its causing, influencing, descriptive and evaluating elements step by step. The authors hold that the risk source and its hazard, the risk-bearer and its vulnerability, as well as the disaster-countermeasures of human society and its validity for disaster-reduction are the three causing elements of disaster risk, which control the existence of disaster risk, and then affect its style, character and its intensity. The authors also indicate that the “value” attribute of the risk-bearer, the temporal scale and the spatial scale of the problem under consideration are the three influencing elements of disaster risk, which are not the necessary conditions for the existence of disaster risk, but markedly influence its style, character and intensity. Therefore, from the viewpoint of the genetic theory, the theoretic and the rounded description of the disaster risk, is a kind of multi-variable function having six dimensions whose independent variables are those six elements mentioned above. However, in practice, using style, character as well as intensity to depict disaster risk is usually enough to meet the need of the realistic risk management affairs. Finally, the paper deals with the evaluating element, namely the evaluating standard for disaster risk analysis. It is brought forward that the evaluating standard is the basic reference frame for correct evaluation of risks and for setting up the countermeasures for rational risk-control.
出处
《地学前缘》
EI
CAS
CSCD
2003年第U08期272-279,共8页
Earth Science Frontiers
基金
地震科学联合基金项目 (10 2 0 87)
国家"十五"重点科技攻关项目 (2 0 0 1 BA60 8B 13及 2 0 0 1 BA60 1B 0 4 0 2 0 1)
关键词
自然灾害风险
风险分析
成因性要素
影响性要素
描述性要素
评判性要素
natural disaster risk
risk analysis
causing element
influencing element
descriptive element
evaluating element
