摘要
本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.
Based on an analysis of parameters of high solar cycles; five properties of solar activity in the ascending phase of Cycle 22 are firstly given in the first part of this paper. They are (1) the highest beginning minimum of sunspot number recorded, (2) the number going up with a very high speed, (3) the shortest ascending phase, (4) a wide top of the time-profile of the number and (5) very high activity levels in some specific periods. Then, solar activities in the descending phase of Cycle 22 are estimated. About 2800 active regions, 28000 flares, 210 X class X-ray bursts and 80 solar proton events could be observed in the phase of the cycle. In the second part of this paper, equations of parameters of solar cycles are obtained and an application of these formulae gives a prediction of the parameters of Cycle 23. The smoothed monthly sunspot number would reach its maximum of 119 in A.D. 2001.6.
基金
国家自然科学基金
中国科学院重大项目资助
关键词
太阳活动周
太阳活动
预测
Sun-solar cycle-solar activity predictions
