摘要
本文提出了基于流域历史资料的相似洪水智能推荐模型,根据降雨数值预报过程对历史典型洪水进行相似洪水搜索达到洪水预报的效果。首先,选取暴雨洪水特征指标并采用主成分分析方法对特征指标降维,然后采用K-means聚类算法对历史典型场次暴雨洪水进行分类,构建雨洪聚类推荐模型,最终实现相似洪水智能推荐。在嘉陵江流域的应用显示,本研究构建的智能推荐模型可以匹配到相似的历史洪水过程,为洪水预报业务提供参考。
This paper proposes a similar flood intelligent recommendation model based on historical data of the ba-sin, and achieves the effect of flood forecasting by searching for similar floods according to the numerical precipitation forecasting process of historical typical floods. First, the characteristic indicators of rainstorm floods are selected and dimensionality reduction is performed by principal component analysis method. Then, K-means clustering algorithm is used to classify the historical typical cases of rainstorm floods to construct the rainstorm flood clustering recommendation model, and finally the similar flood intelligent recommendation is realized. The application in the Jialing River basin shows that this method can match similar historical flood processes through the constructed intelligent recommendation model, and provide reference for the operational application of flood forecasting.
出处
《水资源研究》
2023年第5期472-485,共14页
Journal of Water Resources Research
