China’s food security has always been the top priority in China. As the huge increase of animal food consumption, the current agriculture system in China namely “grain farming”, whose major animal feed are grains, ...China’s food security has always been the top priority in China. As the huge increase of animal food consumption, the current agriculture system in China namely “grain farming”, whose major animal feed are grains, seems to meet a great challenge to ensure China’s food security in the future. Not only the current situation, but also the production capacity as developing grassland agriculture is analyzed in this paper. The results show that half of provinces don’t have enough grain to meet their various needs for grain, and the whole country’s potential of grain yield is reaching a limited position. On the other hand, implementing cereal-forage rotation on 20% of the total arable land and developing high productivity sown pastures on 3% of the total rangeland areas could create approximately 1.2 times Arable Land Equivalent Unit (ALEU) than ever. So changing the traditional agriculture system into Grassland Agro-Ecosystems is an effective way to insure China’s food security. It includes utilization of rangeland rationally, establishment of more sown pasture and implementation of cereal-pasture rotation system, increase livestock production, and use of arable land more efficiently.展开更多
With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricu...With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.展开更多
China's food security has a great influence on the world,and has always been the top priority in China.In recent years,as the concept of food security is evolving into one of nutrition security and the importance ...China's food security has a great influence on the world,and has always been the top priority in China.In recent years,as the concept of food security is evolving into one of nutrition security and the importance of food diversity is increasing,research based on nutrition security and broad food systems are increasingly needed in today’s China.Thus,not only grain for human consumption,but also animal foods have been integrated into the Food Equivalent,which is used to analyze China’s current agriculture system and reveal the water resource distribution.The results indicated that the average animal food consumption has risen by 78.6%,and now China’s daily supply of animal food per capita has reached about 50%of that in the USA and 80%of that in the South Korea.So there exist an obvious disparity in animal food supply between China and these two countries.It is impossible for the China’s current agricultural system to achieve the level in the USA.Under China’s current agricultural system,the consumption proportion of feed grain had surpassed the consumption of food grain,increased sharply from 33%in 1992 to 67%in 2011.However,the growth potential of total grain output is approaching an upper limit,so the continued growth of feed grain demand exerts great pressure on the China’s food supply.The discordance of the spatial distribution of water resource and virtual water revealed that China’s current agriculture system had a low efficiency in being able to achieve food and nutrition security.China’s current“grain farming”cannot meet the demand of increasing nutrition and appropriate resource utilization.The implementation of grassland agriculture appears feasible and necessary for saving feed grain,providing a large number of high-quality animal foods and appropriate water resource utilization.展开更多
To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous live...To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020 The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national percapita consumption of grain ration declined by about36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consuming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different regions of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 regions in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.展开更多
文摘China’s food security has always been the top priority in China. As the huge increase of animal food consumption, the current agriculture system in China namely “grain farming”, whose major animal feed are grains, seems to meet a great challenge to ensure China’s food security in the future. Not only the current situation, but also the production capacity as developing grassland agriculture is analyzed in this paper. The results show that half of provinces don’t have enough grain to meet their various needs for grain, and the whole country’s potential of grain yield is reaching a limited position. On the other hand, implementing cereal-forage rotation on 20% of the total arable land and developing high productivity sown pastures on 3% of the total rangeland areas could create approximately 1.2 times Arable Land Equivalent Unit (ALEU) than ever. So changing the traditional agriculture system into Grassland Agro-Ecosystems is an effective way to insure China’s food security. It includes utilization of rangeland rationally, establishment of more sown pasture and implementation of cereal-pasture rotation system, increase livestock production, and use of arable land more efficiently.
文摘With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.
基金supported by the key consultative project“Ecological security of grassland and food security in China”by Chinese Academy of Engineering(2012-ZD-7)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University(IRT13019).
文摘China's food security has a great influence on the world,and has always been the top priority in China.In recent years,as the concept of food security is evolving into one of nutrition security and the importance of food diversity is increasing,research based on nutrition security and broad food systems are increasingly needed in today’s China.Thus,not only grain for human consumption,but also animal foods have been integrated into the Food Equivalent,which is used to analyze China’s current agriculture system and reveal the water resource distribution.The results indicated that the average animal food consumption has risen by 78.6%,and now China’s daily supply of animal food per capita has reached about 50%of that in the USA and 80%of that in the South Korea.So there exist an obvious disparity in animal food supply between China and these two countries.It is impossible for the China’s current agricultural system to achieve the level in the USA.Under China’s current agricultural system,the consumption proportion of feed grain had surpassed the consumption of food grain,increased sharply from 33%in 1992 to 67%in 2011.However,the growth potential of total grain output is approaching an upper limit,so the continued growth of feed grain demand exerts great pressure on the China’s food supply.The discordance of the spatial distribution of water resource and virtual water revealed that China’s current agriculture system had a low efficiency in being able to achieve food and nutrition security.China’s current“grain farming”cannot meet the demand of increasing nutrition and appropriate resource utilization.The implementation of grassland agriculture appears feasible and necessary for saving feed grain,providing a large number of high-quality animal foods and appropriate water resource utilization.
基金supported by the key project "Study of the Dynamic Market Equilibrium in Substituting Beef and Mutton for Pork" by the State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agroecosystems (SKLGAE201502)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (IRT13019)
文摘To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020 The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national percapita consumption of grain ration declined by about36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consuming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different regions of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 regions in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.
