To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new ...To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.展开更多
基金Supported by Science Research Project of Department of Education of Hubei Province (B20092901)~~
文摘To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.
