This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
Due to the difficulties in obtaining large deformation mining subsidence using differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （D-InSAR） alone, a new algorithm was proposed to extract large deformation mining ...Due to the difficulties in obtaining large deformation mining subsidence using differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （D-InSAR） alone, a new algorithm was proposed to extract large deformation mining subsidence using D-InSAR technique and probability integral method. The details of the algorithm are as follows：the control points set, containing correct phase unwrapping points on the subsidence basin edge generated by D-InSAR and several observation points （near the maximum subsidence and inflection points）, was established at first; genetic algorithm （GA） was then used to optimize the parameters of probability integral method; at last, the surface subsidence was deduced according to the optimum parameters. The results of the experiment in Huaibei mining area, China, show that the presented method can generate the correct mining subsidence basin with a few surface observations, and the relative error of maximum subsidence point is about 8.3%, which is much better than that of conventional D-InSAR （relative error is 68.0%）.展开更多
The simulation of solute transport in fractured rock mass has Finite Element Method（FEM） and Finite Analysis Method（FAM）, etc. been conducted with the Finite Difference Method（FDM）, However, groundwater flow and...The simulation of solute transport in fractured rock mass has Finite Element Method（FEM） and Finite Analysis Method（FAM）, etc. been conducted with the Finite Difference Method（FDM）, However, groundwater flow and solute transport is very complex in fractured network compared to the rocks matrix because water flow and tracer particles have different selections of pathways when they travel to the fractured intersections. It is difficult for traditional method to simulate the law of solute transport in fractured network. Hence a new simulation method, the probability method, is developed. In the method, transfer probabilities for fractured network are calculated using the flux of input and output from fractured intersection points, and travel times of tracer particles are determined with random numbers, dispersion parameter and velocity. Furthermore, corresponding computing program is developed using the FORTRAN language. The comparison between simulated and experimental results shows that the probability method is of considerable reliability and is an effective method to simulate solute transport in fractured network, and the case study of the Jinping I-Hydropower Station displays its wide application prospect.展开更多
In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of...In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of ground stability. Take Yingcheng Coal Mine of Jiutai as an example. Mining-induced movement and horizontal movement are analyzed on the basis of the measurement data. The resuhs of prediction can pro- vide reference and basis for prevention of coal mining subsidence and future restoration and treatment.展开更多
In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main ...In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.展开更多
This paper provides a calculating method which can be used in calculation of the kill probability attack area for every AAM. At first, attack area of AAM and kill probability of every characteristic point are obtained...This paper provides a calculating method which can be used in calculation of the kill probability attack area for every AAM. At first, attack area of AAM and kill probability of every characteristic point are obtained by combining trajectory calculation with kill probability calculation. Then, coordinates of a fire point relative to standard kill probability value in terms of standardization method are found. At last, equivalent kill probability curve equations are formulated by means of curve fitting method.展开更多
A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OW...A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OWT)towers subjected to random sea state.With regard to the stochastic responses,random function method is employed to generate samples of sea elevation,the probability density evolution equation(PDEE)is solved to calculate time-variant probability density functions of structural responses.For the probabilistic load estimation,a FAST model of NREL 5MW offshore turbine is established to obtain samples of bending moment at the tower base.The equivalent extreme event theory is used to construct a virtual stochastic process(VSP)to assess the short-term extreme load.The results indicate that the proposed approach can predict time-variant probability density functions of the structural responses,and shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,the predicted short-term extreme load can capture the fluctuation at the tail of the extreme value distribution,thus is more rational than results from the typical distribution models.Overall,the proposed method shows good adaptation,precision and efficiency for the dynamic response analysis and load estimation of OWT towers.展开更多
In this paper, rock mass is regarded as anisotropic clastic units and the partial differential equation of subsidence has been testified. The solution about homogeneous anisotropy has been obtained. The existence of i...In this paper, rock mass is regarded as anisotropic clastic units and the partial differential equation of subsidence has been testified. The solution about homogeneous anisotropy has been obtained. The existence of inflection point offset in subsidence formula has been proved. Lastly, the relevant influence factors about the offset of inflection point have been simply discussed.展开更多
The fuzzy comfortability of a wind-sensitive super-high tower crane is critical to guarantee occupant health and improve construction efficiency.Therefore,the wind-resistant fuzzy comfortability of a super-high tower ...The fuzzy comfortability of a wind-sensitive super-high tower crane is critical to guarantee occupant health and improve construction efficiency.Therefore,the wind-resistant fuzzy comfortability of a super-high tower crane in the Ma’anshan Yangtze River(MYR)Bridge site is analyzed in this paper.First,the membership function model that represents fuzzy comfortability is introduced in the probability density evolution method(PDEM).Second,based on Fechner’s law,the membership function curves are constructed according to three acceleration thresholds in ISO 2631.Then,the fuzzy comfortability for the super-high tower crane under stochastic wind loads is assessed on the basis of different cut-set levelsλ.Results show that the comfortability is over 0.9 under the required maximum operating wind velocity.The low sensitivity toλcan be observed in the reliability curves of ISOⅡandⅢmembership functions.The reliability of the ISOⅠmembership function is not sensitive toλwhenλ<0.7,whereas it becomes sensitive toλwhenλ>0.7.展开更多
The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong ar...The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.展开更多
In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine （SVM） was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive ...In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine （SVM） was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu- late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor, based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid- ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of displacement in mining subsidence orediction.展开更多
The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution ...The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.展开更多
Lactic acid bacteria have not only been used to produce various kinds of fermented food, but also used as probiotic products. As lactic acid bacterial group was consisted from diverse genera, a simple inspection metho...Lactic acid bacteria have not only been used to produce various kinds of fermented food, but also used as probiotic products. As lactic acid bacterial group was consisted from diverse genera, a simple inspection method by which numbers and contained microorganisms could be automatically analyzed without any preliminary information was required to use them more effectively. In this manuscript, lactic acid bacterial groups in commercial products of kimuchi, komekouji-miso, and yoghurt were identified and enumerated by our newly developed method [1]-[3], to evaluate whether the method could be used as an inspection method of various food samples. In kimuchi, numerically dominant bacteria were Lactobacillus sakei, and L. casei (1.4 × 104 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and Leuconostoc spp. (l.4 × 104 MPN). In kouji-miso, numerically dominant bacteria was Bacillus spp. (3 × 103 MPN), which mainly included B. subtilis group and B. cereus group. Lactic acid bacteria such as Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., included in the komekouji-miso, could be enumerated after 3 days incubation (1.24 × 104 MPN), but not detected after 7 days incubation. In yoghurt A and C, Lactococcus lactis was detected as numerically dominant lactic acid bacteria (3.0 × 105 MPN). In yoghurt B, Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., was detected not only by a culturebased method but also by an unculture-based method, although there was a difference between the both estimated numbers. The present results suggested that the method might become useful as a simple inspection method of food microorganisms, because time and labor of the analysis could be reduced by using an unculture-based method and MCE-202 MultiNA. In this study, Bifidobacteriium spp. was not detected in B and C yoghurt, in spite of indicating their existence, and numbers of lactic acid bacteria were lower than the level of the daily product regulation, because 16S rDNA of Bifidobacteriium spp. might not be amplified by the used PCR condition. The PCR condition must be changed so as to amplify Bifidobacterium spp., before the method will be used as an inspection method for lactic acid bacteria.展开更多
The method to analyze both eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms without preliminary microbial information of sample seemed to be useful not only for research and investigation of microorganisms but also for indus...The method to analyze both eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms without preliminary microbial information of sample seemed to be useful not only for research and investigation of microorganisms but also for industry using microorganisms. In the present manuscript, preparation of a new DNA primers, new reference database for 18S rDNA for our newly developed method [1]- [3], and analyses of eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms in fermentation products were presented. In komekouji, Aspergillus spp., was enumerated to be 46.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>, and Penicillium spp., was enumerated to be 1.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>. In dry yeast, Saccharomyces group, were enumerated to be 8600 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>. In komekouji-miso, no eukaryotic microorganism was detected, while the other Bacillus spp., was numerically dominant (21.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) as prokaryotic microorganisms, followed by B. subtilis group (4.65 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and the other Firmicutes (3.7 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). The komekouji-miso included lower number of Actinobacteria (0.15 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), Burkhokderia sp. (1.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and the other α,β,γ-proteobacteria (0.12 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). In sake-kasu, both prokaryote and eukaryote were not detected by the method. Present results indicated that using both universal primers for eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms, each groups of prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms were enumerated without any preliminary information nor setting up standard curve, which were required for real time PCR.展开更多
In the present manuscript it was presented whether spreading of antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in environment could be monitored by our newly developed method by enumerating antibiotic resistant bacterial group...In the present manuscript it was presented whether spreading of antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in environment could be monitored by our newly developed method by enumerating antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in various biological wastes and composts. Although the numbers were not so high, diverse kinds of colistin resistant bacteria (25 mg·L<sup>-1</sup><sup></sup>) were included in row cattle feces (1.78 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and cattle feces manure (>3.84 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). Compost originated from leftover food (>44.8 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and shochu lee (>320 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Pseudomonas sp., (25 mg·L<sup>-1</sup><sup></sup>), and row cattle feces included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Enterobacteriacea (15.7 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), which mostly consisted from Pantoea sp. or Xenorhobdus doucetiae. Numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria, resistant to 25 mg·L<sup>-1 </sup>of<sup> </sup>ciprofloxacin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, and ampicillin, were the highest in row cattle feces (>143.6 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), followed by cattle feces manure (4.19 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and shochu lee (0.36 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), which included diverse kinds of bacterial group. The present results indicated that higher numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria were typically found in row cattle feces, and the method was found suitable to enumerate and identify them. These results suggested that the method might become their environmental risk evaluation method.展开更多
Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can b...Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.展开更多
Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a si...Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a simulation-based TDGS model is established,and a surrogate-based model,grid search algorithm-particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm-multi-output least squares support vector regression,is established.Among them,hyperparameter optimization algorithm’s effectiveness is confirmed through test functions.Subsequently,an adaptive surrogate-based probability density evolution method(PDEM)considering random track geometry irregularity(TGI)is developed.Finally,taking curved train-steel spring floating slab track-U beam as case study,the surrogate-based model trained on simulation datasets not only shows accuracy in both time and frequency domains,but also surpasses existing models.Additionally,the adaptive surrogate-based PDEM shows high accuracy and efficiency,outperforming Monte Carlo simulation and simulation-based PDEM.The reliability assessment shows that the TDGS part peak management indexes,left/right vertical dynamic irregularity,right alignment dynamic irregularity,and track twist,have reliability values of 0.9648,0.9918,0.9978,and 0.9901,respectively.The TDGS mean management index,i.e.,track quality index,has reliability value of 0.9950.These findings show that the proposed framework can accurately and efficiently assess the reliability of curved low-stiffness track-viaducts,providing a theoretical basis for the TGI maintenance.展开更多
After volume fracturing of horizontal wells in shale gas reservoir, an extremely complex fracture system is formed. The space area of the fracture system is the reservoir reconstruction volume of shale gas reservoir. ...After volume fracturing of horizontal wells in shale gas reservoir, an extremely complex fracture system is formed. The space area of the fracture system is the reservoir reconstruction volume of shale gas reservoir. The geometric parameters such as crack length, crack width, crack height, and characteristic parameters such as crack permeability and fracture conductivity proposed for a single crack in conventional fracturing are insufficient to describe and characterize the complex network fracture system after volume fracturing. In this paper, the discrete fracture modeling method is used to establish the volume fracturing network fracture model of horizontal wells in shale gas reservoir by using the random modeling method within the determined reservoir space. The model is random and selective, and can fully provide different forms of volume fracturing fracture expansion, such as conventional fracture morphology, line network model and arbitrarily distributed network fractures. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the development plan and stimulation plan of shale gas reservoir, and have important reference value and significance for other unconventional gas reservoir fracturing.展开更多
The research of reliability design for impact vibration of hydraulic pressure pipeline systems is still in the primary stage,and the research of quantitative reliability of hydraulic components and system is still inc...The research of reliability design for impact vibration of hydraulic pressure pipeline systems is still in the primary stage,and the research of quantitative reliability of hydraulic components and system is still incomplete.On the condition of having obtained the numerical characteristics of basic random parameters,several techniques and methods including the probability statistical theory,hydraulic technique and stochastic perturbation method are employed to carry out the reliability design for impact vibration of the hydraulic pressure system.Considering the instantaneous pressure pulse of hydraulic impact in pipeline,the reliability analysis model of hydraulic pipeline system is established,and the reliability-based optimization design method is presented.The proposed method can reflect the inherent reliability of hydraulic pipe system exactly,and the desired result is obtained.The reliability design of hydraulic pipeline system is achieved by computer programs and the reliability design information of hydraulic pipeline system is obtained.This research proposes a reliability design method,which can solve the problem of the reliability-based optimization design for the hydraulic pressure system with impact vibration practically and effectively,and enhance the quantitative research on the reliability design of hydraulic pipeline system.The proposed method has generality for the reliability optimization design of hydraulic pipeline system.展开更多
A new approach to evaluate the extreme value distribution （EVD） of the response and reliability of general multi-DOF nonlinear stochastic structures is proposed. The approach is based on the recently developed proba...A new approach to evaluate the extreme value distribution （EVD） of the response and reliability of general multi-DOF nonlinear stochastic structures is proposed. The approach is based on the recently developed probability density evolution method, which enables the instantaneous probability density functions of the stochastic responses to be captured. In the proposed method, a virtual stochastic process is first constructed to satisfy the condition that the extreme value of the response equals the value of the constructed process at a certain instant of time. The probability density evolution method is then applied to evaluate the instantaneous probability density function of the response, yielding the EVD. The reliability is therefore available through a simple integration over the safe domain. A numerical algorithm is developed using the Number Theoretical Method to select the discretized representative points. Further, a hyper-ball is imposed to sieve the points from the preceding point set in the hypercube. In the numerical examples, the EVD of random variables is evaluated and compared with the analytical solution. A frame structure is analyzed to capture the EVD of the response and the dynamic reliability. The investigations indicate that the proposed approach provides reasonable accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
基金Project (BK20130174) supported by the Basic Research Project of Jiangsu Province (Natural Science Foundation) Project (1101109C) supported by Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds,China+1 种基金Project (201325) supported by the Key Laboratory of Geo-informatics of State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping,ChinaProject (SZBF2011-6-B35) supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,China
文摘Due to the difficulties in obtaining large deformation mining subsidence using differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （D-InSAR） alone, a new algorithm was proposed to extract large deformation mining subsidence using D-InSAR technique and probability integral method. The details of the algorithm are as follows：the control points set, containing correct phase unwrapping points on the subsidence basin edge generated by D-InSAR and several observation points （near the maximum subsidence and inflection points）, was established at first; genetic algorithm （GA） was then used to optimize the parameters of probability integral method; at last, the surface subsidence was deduced according to the optimum parameters. The results of the experiment in Huaibei mining area, China, show that the presented method can generate the correct mining subsidence basin with a few surface observations, and the relative error of maximum subsidence point is about 8.3%, which is much better than that of conventional D-InSAR （relative error is 68.0%）.
基金Supported by the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (Grant No.IRT0717)the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministrysupported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hohai University (Grant No.2008433111)
文摘The simulation of solute transport in fractured rock mass has Finite Element Method（FEM） and Finite Analysis Method（FAM）, etc. been conducted with the Finite Difference Method（FDM）, However, groundwater flow and solute transport is very complex in fractured network compared to the rocks matrix because water flow and tracer particles have different selections of pathways when they travel to the fractured intersections. It is difficult for traditional method to simulate the law of solute transport in fractured network. Hence a new simulation method, the probability method, is developed. In the method, transfer probabilities for fractured network are calculated using the flux of input and output from fractured intersection points, and travel times of tracer particles are determined with random numbers, dispersion parameter and velocity. Furthermore, corresponding computing program is developed using the FORTRAN language. The comparison between simulated and experimental results shows that the probability method is of considerable reliability and is an effective method to simulate solute transport in fractured network, and the case study of the Jinping I-Hydropower Station displays its wide application prospect.
文摘In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of ground stability. Take Yingcheng Coal Mine of Jiutai as an example. Mining-induced movement and horizontal movement are analyzed on the basis of the measurement data. The resuhs of prediction can pro- vide reference and basis for prevention of coal mining subsidence and future restoration and treatment.
文摘In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.
文摘This paper provides a calculating method which can be used in calculation of the kill probability attack area for every AAM. At first, attack area of AAM and kill probability of every characteristic point are obtained by combining trajectory calculation with kill probability calculation. Then, coordinates of a fire point relative to standard kill probability value in terms of standardization method are found. At last, equivalent kill probability curve equations are formulated by means of curve fitting method.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51578444)Key Science Research Program of Education Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.20JY032).
文摘A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OWT)towers subjected to random sea state.With regard to the stochastic responses,random function method is employed to generate samples of sea elevation,the probability density evolution equation(PDEE)is solved to calculate time-variant probability density functions of structural responses.For the probabilistic load estimation,a FAST model of NREL 5MW offshore turbine is established to obtain samples of bending moment at the tower base.The equivalent extreme event theory is used to construct a virtual stochastic process(VSP)to assess the short-term extreme load.The results indicate that the proposed approach can predict time-variant probability density functions of the structural responses,and shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,the predicted short-term extreme load can capture the fluctuation at the tail of the extreme value distribution,thus is more rational than results from the typical distribution models.Overall,the proposed method shows good adaptation,precision and efficiency for the dynamic response analysis and load estimation of OWT towers.
文摘In this paper, rock mass is regarded as anisotropic clastic units and the partial differential equation of subsidence has been testified. The solution about homogeneous anisotropy has been obtained. The existence of inflection point offset in subsidence formula has been proved. Lastly, the relevant influence factors about the offset of inflection point have been simply discussed.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52108274,52208481,52338011)State Scholarship Fund of China Scholarship Council(No.202306090285).
文摘The fuzzy comfortability of a wind-sensitive super-high tower crane is critical to guarantee occupant health and improve construction efficiency.Therefore,the wind-resistant fuzzy comfortability of a super-high tower crane in the Ma’anshan Yangtze River(MYR)Bridge site is analyzed in this paper.First,the membership function model that represents fuzzy comfortability is introduced in the probability density evolution method(PDEM).Second,based on Fechner’s law,the membership function curves are constructed according to three acceleration thresholds in ISO 2631.Then,the fuzzy comfortability for the super-high tower crane under stochastic wind loads is assessed on the basis of different cut-set levelsλ.Results show that the comfortability is over 0.9 under the required maximum operating wind velocity.The low sensitivity toλcan be observed in the reliability curves of ISOⅡandⅢmembership functions.The reliability of the ISOⅠmembership function is not sensitive toλwhenλ<0.7,whereas it becomes sensitive toλwhenλ>0.7.
基金co-supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2011CB201103)the National Science and Technology Major Project(GrantNo.2011ZX05004003)
文摘The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.
基金the Research and Innovation Program for College and University Graduate Students in Jiangsu Province (No.CX10B_141Z)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41071273) for support of this project
文摘In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine （SVM） was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu- late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor, based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid- ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of displacement in mining subsidence orediction.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of Chinafor Innovative Research Groups Under Grant No.50621062the National Natural Science Foundation of China forYoung Scholars Under Grant No.10402030
文摘The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.
文摘Lactic acid bacteria have not only been used to produce various kinds of fermented food, but also used as probiotic products. As lactic acid bacterial group was consisted from diverse genera, a simple inspection method by which numbers and contained microorganisms could be automatically analyzed without any preliminary information was required to use them more effectively. In this manuscript, lactic acid bacterial groups in commercial products of kimuchi, komekouji-miso, and yoghurt were identified and enumerated by our newly developed method [1]-[3], to evaluate whether the method could be used as an inspection method of various food samples. In kimuchi, numerically dominant bacteria were Lactobacillus sakei, and L. casei (1.4 × 104 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and Leuconostoc spp. (l.4 × 104 MPN). In kouji-miso, numerically dominant bacteria was Bacillus spp. (3 × 103 MPN), which mainly included B. subtilis group and B. cereus group. Lactic acid bacteria such as Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., included in the komekouji-miso, could be enumerated after 3 days incubation (1.24 × 104 MPN), but not detected after 7 days incubation. In yoghurt A and C, Lactococcus lactis was detected as numerically dominant lactic acid bacteria (3.0 × 105 MPN). In yoghurt B, Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., was detected not only by a culturebased method but also by an unculture-based method, although there was a difference between the both estimated numbers. The present results suggested that the method might become useful as a simple inspection method of food microorganisms, because time and labor of the analysis could be reduced by using an unculture-based method and MCE-202 MultiNA. In this study, Bifidobacteriium spp. was not detected in B and C yoghurt, in spite of indicating their existence, and numbers of lactic acid bacteria were lower than the level of the daily product regulation, because 16S rDNA of Bifidobacteriium spp. might not be amplified by the used PCR condition. The PCR condition must be changed so as to amplify Bifidobacterium spp., before the method will be used as an inspection method for lactic acid bacteria.
文摘The method to analyze both eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms without preliminary microbial information of sample seemed to be useful not only for research and investigation of microorganisms but also for industry using microorganisms. In the present manuscript, preparation of a new DNA primers, new reference database for 18S rDNA for our newly developed method [1]- [3], and analyses of eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms in fermentation products were presented. In komekouji, Aspergillus spp., was enumerated to be 46.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>, and Penicillium spp., was enumerated to be 1.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>. In dry yeast, Saccharomyces group, were enumerated to be 8600 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>. In komekouji-miso, no eukaryotic microorganism was detected, while the other Bacillus spp., was numerically dominant (21.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) as prokaryotic microorganisms, followed by B. subtilis group (4.65 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and the other Firmicutes (3.7 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). The komekouji-miso included lower number of Actinobacteria (0.15 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), Burkhokderia sp. (1.5 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and the other α,β,γ-proteobacteria (0.12 × 106 MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). In sake-kasu, both prokaryote and eukaryote were not detected by the method. Present results indicated that using both universal primers for eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms, each groups of prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms were enumerated without any preliminary information nor setting up standard curve, which were required for real time PCR.
文摘In the present manuscript it was presented whether spreading of antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in environment could be monitored by our newly developed method by enumerating antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in various biological wastes and composts. Although the numbers were not so high, diverse kinds of colistin resistant bacteria (25 mg·L<sup>-1</sup><sup></sup>) were included in row cattle feces (1.78 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and cattle feces manure (>3.84 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>). Compost originated from leftover food (>44.8 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) and shochu lee (>320 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>) included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Pseudomonas sp., (25 mg·L<sup>-1</sup><sup></sup>), and row cattle feces included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Enterobacteriacea (15.7 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), which mostly consisted from Pantoea sp. or Xenorhobdus doucetiae. Numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria, resistant to 25 mg·L<sup>-1 </sup>of<sup> </sup>ciprofloxacin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, and ampicillin, were the highest in row cattle feces (>143.6 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), followed by cattle feces manure (4.19 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), and shochu lee (0.36 × 10<sup>4</sup> MPN g<sup>-1</sup>), which included diverse kinds of bacterial group. The present results indicated that higher numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria were typically found in row cattle feces, and the method was found suitable to enumerate and identify them. These results suggested that the method might become their environmental risk evaluation method.
基金Project(2023YFB4302500)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(52078485)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2021-Major-16,2021-Special-08)supported by the Science and Technology Research and Development Program Project of China Railway Group Limited。
文摘Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.
基金Project(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a simulation-based TDGS model is established,and a surrogate-based model,grid search algorithm-particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm-multi-output least squares support vector regression,is established.Among them,hyperparameter optimization algorithm’s effectiveness is confirmed through test functions.Subsequently,an adaptive surrogate-based probability density evolution method(PDEM)considering random track geometry irregularity(TGI)is developed.Finally,taking curved train-steel spring floating slab track-U beam as case study,the surrogate-based model trained on simulation datasets not only shows accuracy in both time and frequency domains,but also surpasses existing models.Additionally,the adaptive surrogate-based PDEM shows high accuracy and efficiency,outperforming Monte Carlo simulation and simulation-based PDEM.The reliability assessment shows that the TDGS part peak management indexes,left/right vertical dynamic irregularity,right alignment dynamic irregularity,and track twist,have reliability values of 0.9648,0.9918,0.9978,and 0.9901,respectively.The TDGS mean management index,i.e.,track quality index,has reliability value of 0.9950.These findings show that the proposed framework can accurately and efficiently assess the reliability of curved low-stiffness track-viaducts,providing a theoretical basis for the TGI maintenance.
文摘After volume fracturing of horizontal wells in shale gas reservoir, an extremely complex fracture system is formed. The space area of the fracture system is the reservoir reconstruction volume of shale gas reservoir. The geometric parameters such as crack length, crack width, crack height, and characteristic parameters such as crack permeability and fracture conductivity proposed for a single crack in conventional fracturing are insufficient to describe and characterize the complex network fracture system after volume fracturing. In this paper, the discrete fracture modeling method is used to establish the volume fracturing network fracture model of horizontal wells in shale gas reservoir by using the random modeling method within the determined reservoir space. The model is random and selective, and can fully provide different forms of volume fracturing fracture expansion, such as conventional fracture morphology, line network model and arbitrarily distributed network fractures. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the development plan and stimulation plan of shale gas reservoir, and have important reference value and significance for other unconventional gas reservoir fracturing.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.5113500310972088)
文摘The research of reliability design for impact vibration of hydraulic pressure pipeline systems is still in the primary stage,and the research of quantitative reliability of hydraulic components and system is still incomplete.On the condition of having obtained the numerical characteristics of basic random parameters,several techniques and methods including the probability statistical theory,hydraulic technique and stochastic perturbation method are employed to carry out the reliability design for impact vibration of the hydraulic pressure system.Considering the instantaneous pressure pulse of hydraulic impact in pipeline,the reliability analysis model of hydraulic pipeline system is established,and the reliability-based optimization design method is presented.The proposed method can reflect the inherent reliability of hydraulic pipe system exactly,and the desired result is obtained.The reliability design of hydraulic pipeline system is achieved by computer programs and the reliability design information of hydraulic pipeline system is obtained.This research proposes a reliability design method,which can solve the problem of the reliability-based optimization design for the hydraulic pressure system with impact vibration practically and effectively,and enhance the quantitative research on the reliability design of hydraulic pipeline system.The proposed method has generality for the reliability optimization design of hydraulic pipeline system.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China for Innovative Research Groups Under Grant No. 50321803 National Natural Science Foundation of China for Young Scholars Under Grant No. 10402030
文摘A new approach to evaluate the extreme value distribution （EVD） of the response and reliability of general multi-DOF nonlinear stochastic structures is proposed. The approach is based on the recently developed probability density evolution method, which enables the instantaneous probability density functions of the stochastic responses to be captured. In the proposed method, a virtual stochastic process is first constructed to satisfy the condition that the extreme value of the response equals the value of the constructed process at a certain instant of time. The probability density evolution method is then applied to evaluate the instantaneous probability density function of the response, yielding the EVD. The reliability is therefore available through a simple integration over the safe domain. A numerical algorithm is developed using the Number Theoretical Method to select the discretized representative points. Further, a hyper-ball is imposed to sieve the points from the preceding point set in the hypercube. In the numerical examples, the EVD of random variables is evaluated and compared with the analytical solution. A frame structure is analyzed to capture the EVD of the response and the dynamic reliability. The investigations indicate that the proposed approach provides reasonable accuracy and efficiency.
