To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage p...To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.展开更多
A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the eff...A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate （RCA） replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes （CFST）.展开更多
This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate ...This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.展开更多
This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data ...This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data describe the intensity and the damages, but do not give information about the vulnerability, since only in the ’90 the concept of vulnerability classes was introduced through the EMS92 and EMS98 scales. Considering EMS98 definitions, RISK-UE project derived a method for physical damage estimation. It introduced an analytical equation as a function of an only one parameter (Vulnerability Index), which correlates the seismic input, in term of Macroseismic Intensity, with the physical damage. In this study, we propose a methodology that uses optimization algorithms allowing a combination of theoretical-based with expert opinion-based assessment data. The objective of this combination is to estimate the optimal Vulnerability Index that fits the historical data, and hence, to give the minimum error in a seismic risk scenario. We apply the proposed methodology to the El Asnam earthquake (1980), but this approach remains general and can be extrapolated to any other region, and more, it can be applied to predictive studies (before each earthquake scenarios). The mathematical formulation gives choice for regarding, to the optic of minimizing the error, either for the: 1) very little damaged building (D0-D2 degree) or 2) highly damaged building (D4-D5 degree). These two different kinds of optics are adapted for the people who make organizational decisions as for mitigation measures and urban planning in the first case and civil protection and urgent action after a seismic event in the second case. The insight is used in the framework of seismic scenarios and offers advancing of damage estimation for the area in which no recent data, or either no data regarding vulnerability, are available.展开更多
Many countries throughout the world have experienced large earthquakes,which cause building damage or collapse.After such earthquakes,structures must be inspected rapidly to judge whether they are safe to reoccupy.To ...Many countries throughout the world have experienced large earthquakes,which cause building damage or collapse.After such earthquakes,structures must be inspected rapidly to judge whether they are safe to reoccupy.To facilitate the inspection process,the authors previously developed a rapid building safety assessment system using sparse acceleration measurements for steel framed buildings.The proposed system modeled nonlinearity in the measurement data using a calibrated simplified lumped-mass model and convolutional neural networks(CNNs),based on which the buildinglevel damage index was estimated rapidly after earthquakes.The proposed system was validated for a nonlinear 3D numerical model of a five-story steel building,and later for a large-scale specimen of an 18-story building in Japan tested on the E-Defense shaking table.However,the applicability of the safety assessment system for reinforced concrete(RC)structures with complex hysteretic material nonlinearity has yet to be explored;the previous approach based on a simplified lumpedmass model with a Bouc-Wen hysteretic model does not accurately represent the inherent nonlinear behavior and resulting damage states of RC structures.This study extends the rapid building safety assessment system to low-rise RC moment resisting frame structures representing typical residential apartments in Japan.First,a safety classification for RC structures based on a damage index consistent with the current state of practice is defined.Then,a 3D nonlinear numerical model of a two-story moment frame structure is created.A simplified lumped-mass nonlinear model is developed and calibrated using the 3D model,incorporating the Takeda degradation model for the RC material nonlinearity.This model is used to simulate the seismic response and associated damage sensitive features(DSF)for random ground motion.The resulting database of responses is used to train a convolutional neural network(CNN)that performs rapid safety assessment.The developed system is validated using the 3D nonlinear analysis model subjected to historical earthquakes.The results indicate the applicability of the proposed system for RC structures following seismic events.展开更多
According to the characteristics of thin-layer rolling and pouting construction technology and the complicated mechanical behavior of the roller compacted concrete dam （RCCD） construction interface, a constitutive m...According to the characteristics of thin-layer rolling and pouting construction technology and the complicated mechanical behavior of the roller compacted concrete dam （RCCD） construction interface, a constitutive model of endochronic damage was established based on the endochronic theory and damage mechanics. The proposed model abandons the traditional concept of elastic-plastic yield surface and can better reflect the real behavior of rolled control concrete. Basic equations were proposed for the fluid-solid coupling analysis, and the relationships among the corresponding key physical parameters were also put forward. One three-dimensional finite element method （FEM） program was obtained by studying the FEM type of the seepage-stress coupling intersection of the RCCD. The method was applied to an actual project, and the results show that the fluid-solid interaction influences dam deformation and dam abutment stability, which is in accordance with practice. Therefore, this model provides a new method for revealing the mechanical behavior of RCCD under the coupling field.展开更多
This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element （FE） sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects...This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element （FE） sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects of infinite foundation, contraction joints, and nonlinear concrete are taken into account. The detailed structures of the outlet pier are then simulated with a refined FE model in the sub-model analysis. In this way the damage mechanism of the plain （unreinforced） outlet pier is analyzed, and the effects of two reinforcement measures （i.e., post-tensioned anchor cables and reinforcing bar） on the dynamic damage to the outlet pier are investigated comprehensively. Results show that the plain pier is damaged severely by strong earthquakes while implementation of post-tensioned anchor cables strengthens the pier effectively. In addition, radiation damping strongly alleviates seismic damage to the piers.展开更多
Over the past century,the safety of dams has gradually attracted attention from all parties.Research on the dynamic response and damage evolution of dams under extreme loads is the basis of dam safety issues.In recent...Over the past century,the safety of dams has gradually attracted attention from all parties.Research on the dynamic response and damage evolution of dams under extreme loads is the basis of dam safety issues.In recent decades,scholars have studied the responses of dams under earthquake loads,but there is still much room for improvement in experimental and theoretical research on small probability loads such as explosions.In this paper,a 50-m-high concrete gravity dam is used as a prototype dam,and a water explosion model test of a 2.5-m-high concrete gravity dam is designed.The water pressure and the acceleration response of the dam body in the test are analysed.The pressure characteristics and dynamic response of the dam body are assessed.Taking the dam damage test as an example,a numerical model of concrete gravity dam damage is established,and the damage evolution of the dam body is analysed.By combining experiments and numerical simulations,the damage characteristics of the dam body under the action of different charge water explosions are clarified.The integrity of the dam body is well maintained under the action of a small-quantity water explosion,and the dynamic response of the dam body is mainly caused by the shock wave.Both the shock wave and the bubble pulsation cause the dam body to accelerate,and the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the bubble pulsation is only one percent of the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the shock wave.When subjected to explosions in large quantities of water,the dam body is seriously damaged.Under the action of a shock wave,the dam body produces a secondary acceleration response,which is generated by an internal interaction after the dam body is damaged.The damage evolution process of the dam body under the action of a large-scale water explosion is analysed,and it is found that the shock wave pressure of the water explosion causes local damage to the dam body facing the explosion.After the peak value of the shock wave,the impulse continues to act on the dam body,causing cumulative damage and damage inside the dam body.展开更多
Due to the high population density and economic property in urban environments,urban flooding can result in substantial economic losses.However,accurate urban flood modeling and assessing the associated damages are ch...Due to the high population density and economic property in urban environments,urban flooding can result in substantial economic losses.However,accurate urban flood modeling and assessing the associated damages are challenging due to complex urban layouts and rugged topography.Furthermore,the rapid development of urban underground spaces has introduced additional complexities.To address the demanding need for accurate flood modeling and damage assessment in cities,a fine-scale flood damage assessment method was proposed in this study,based on the 1D/2D coupled hydrodynamic model,which can not only assess the flood damage on the ground surface but also evaluate the flood loss in underground spaces.Taking the Gangxi drainage area in Wuhan City,China as a case,this study extensively discussed the flood inundation processes on the ground surface as well as in the buildings and underground spaces,under different rainfall scenarios with the return period ranging from 2 to 200 years.Based on the high spatial-temporal hydrodynamic simulations,the flood damage degrees were evaluated for the buildings and underground spaces with different industry types.The results indicated that the inundation of buildings and underground spaces in densely built cities cannot be neglected in urban flood modeling.Buildings with public service attributes can have a higher flood damage degree,as compared with other types of buildings and underground spaces.展开更多
Based on the damage constitutive model for concrete, the Weibull distribution function was used to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials by finely subdividing concrete slab ele...Based on the damage constitutive model for concrete, the Weibull distribution function was used to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials by finely subdividing concrete slab elements, and a concrete random mesoscopic damage model was established. The seismic response of a 100-m high concrete face rockfill dam(CFRD), subjected to ground motion with different intensities, was simulated with the three-dimensional finite element method(FEM), with emphasis on exploration of damage and the cracking process of concrete slabs during earthquakes as well as analysis of dynamic damage and cracking characteristics during strong earthquakes. The calculated results show that the number of damaged and cracking elements on concrete slabs grows with the duration of earthquakes. With increasing earthquake intensity, the damaged zone and cracking zone on concrete slabs grow wider. During a 7.0-magnitude earthquake, the stress level of concrete slabs is low for the CFRD, and there is almost no damage or slight damage to the slabs. While during a 9.0-magnitude strong earthquake, the percentages of damaged elements and macrocracking elements continuously ascend with the duration of the earthquake, peaking at approximately 26% and 5% at the end of the earthquake, respectively. The concrete random mesoscopic damage model can depict the entire process of sprouting, growing, connecting, and expanding of cracks on a concrete slab during earthquakes.展开更多
Damage reliability analysis is an emerging field of structural engineering which is very significant in structures of great importance like arch dams, large concrete gravity dams etc. The research objective is to desi...Damage reliability analysis is an emerging field of structural engineering which is very significant in structures of great importance like arch dams, large concrete gravity dams etc. The research objective is to design and construct an improved method for damage reliability analysis for concrete gravity dam. Firstly, pseudo excitation method and Mazar damage model were used to analyze how to calculate damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was deterministic. Moreover, response surface method was improved from the aspects of the regression of sample points, the selection of experimental points, the determined method of weight matrix and the calculation method of checking point respectively. Then, the above method was used to analyze guarantee rate of damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was random. Finally, a test example was given to verify and analyze the convergence and stability of this method. Compared with other conventional algorithm, this method has some strong points: this algorithm has good convergence and stability and greatly enhances calculation efficiency and the storage efficiency. From what has been analyzed, we find that damage expected value is insensitive to the randomness of initial elastic modulus so we can neglect the randomness of initial elastic modulus in some extent when we calculate damage expected value.展开更多
Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisc...Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.展开更多
The seismic behavior of skewed bridges has not been well studied compared to straight bridges. Skewed bridges have shown extensive damage, especially due to deck rotation, shear keys failure, abutment unseating and co...The seismic behavior of skewed bridges has not been well studied compared to straight bridges. Skewed bridges have shown extensive damage, especially due to deck rotation, shear keys failure, abutment unseating and column- bent drift. This research, therefore, aims to study the behavior of skewed and straight highway overpass bridges both with and without taking into account the effects of Soil-Structure Interaction （SSI） due to near-fault ground motions. Due to several sources of uncertainty associated with the ground motions, soil and structure, a probabilistic approach is needed. Thus, a probabilistic methodology similar to the one developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center （PEER） has been utilized to assess the probability of damage due to various levels of shaking using appropriate intensity measures with minimum dispersions. The probabilistic analyses were performed for various bridge configurations and site conditions, including sand ranging from loose to dense and clay ranging from soft to stiff, in order to evaluate the effects. The results proved a considerable susceptibility of skewed bridges to deck rotation and shear keys displacement. It was also found that SSI had a decreasing effect on the damage probability for various demands compared to the fixed-base model without including SSI. However, deck rotation for all types of the soil and also abutment unseating for very loose sand and soft clay showed an increase in damage probability compared to the fixed-base model. The damage probability for various demands has also been found to decrease with an increase of soil strength for both sandy and clayey sites. With respect to the variations in the skew angle, an increase in skew angle has had an increasing effect on the amplitude of the seismic response for various demands. Deck rotation has been very sensitive to the increase in the skew angle; therefore, as the skew angle increased, the deck rotation responded accordingly. Furthermore, abutment unseating showed an increasing trend due to an increase in skew angle for both fixed-base and SSI models.展开更多
Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for China.In this stu...Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for China.In this study,we used three widely applied integrated assessment models-FUND,RICE,and PAGE-to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(RCPs).Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5%and 0.7%of China's GDP and global GDP per 1℃ temperature rise on average,respectively.Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage.Compared with business-as-usual emissions(RCP8.5),the 2℃ target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93%and 87%,respectively,and by 80%and 84%,respectively,in the worst-case situation.Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules,requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances,particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.展开更多
The midpoint impact assessment methodology and several weighting methods that are currently used by most building Life cycle assessment (LCA) researchers in China, still have some shortcomings. In order to make the ev...The midpoint impact assessment methodology and several weighting methods that are currently used by most building Life cycle assessment (LCA) researchers in China, still have some shortcomings. In order to make the evaluation results have better temporal and spatial applicability, the endpoint impact assessment methodology was adopted in this paper. Based on the endpoint damage oriented concept, four endpoints of resource exhaustion, energy exhaustion, human health damage and ecosystem damage were selected according to the situation of China and the specialties of the building industry. Subsequently the formula for calculating each endpoint, the background value for normalization and the weighting factors were defined. Following that, an endpoint damage oriented model to evaluate the life cycle environmental impact of buildings in China was established. This model can produce an integrated indicator for environmental impact, and consequently provides references for directing the sustainable building design.展开更多
The damage effect assessment of anti-ship missiles combines system science and weapon science,which can provide reference for the assessment of battlefield damage situation.In order to solve the difficulty of heteroge...The damage effect assessment of anti-ship missiles combines system science and weapon science,which can provide reference for the assessment of battlefield damage situation.In order to solve the difficulty of heterogeneous data aggregation and the difficulty in constructing the mapping between factors and damage effect,this paper analyzes the specific damage process of the anti-ship missile to the ship,and proposes a synthetic Evidential Reasoning(ER)–Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS)to assess the damage effect.To solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of criteria in the assessment process,the belief structure model is used to transform qualitative and quantitative information into a unified mathematical structure,and ER algorithm is used to fuse the information of lower-level criteria.In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of the information contained in the first-level variables,and the strong non-linear characteristics of the mapping between first-level variables and damage effect,the ANFIS with selfadaptation and self-learning is constructed.The map between the three first-level variables and damage effect is established,and the interaction process of the various factors in the damage effect assessment are clear.Sensitivity analysis shows that assessment model has good stability.The result analysis and comparative analysis show that the process proposed in this paper can effectively assess the damage effect of anti-ship missiles,and all criteria data are objective and comparable.展开更多
Rapid damage prediction for wind disasters is significant in emergency response and disaster mitigation,although it faces many challenges.In this study,a 1-km grid of wind speeds was simulated by the Holland model usi...Rapid damage prediction for wind disasters is significant in emergency response and disaster mitigation,although it faces many challenges.In this study,a 1-km grid of wind speeds was simulated by the Holland model using the 6-h interval records of maximum wind speed(MWS) for tropical cyclones(TC) from 1949 to 2020 in South China.The MWS during a TC transit was used to build damage rate curves for affected population and direct economic losses.The results show that the Holland model can efficiently simulate the grid-level MWS,which is comparable to the ground observations with R2 of0.71 to 0.93 and mean absolute errors(MAEs) of 3.3 to 7.5 m/s.The estimated damage rates were in good agreement with the reported values with R^(2)=0.69-0.87 for affected population and R^(2)=0.65-0.84 for GDP loss.The coastal areas and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have the greatest risk of wind disasters,mainly due to the region’s high density of population and developed economy.Our proposed method is suitable for rapid damage prediction and supporting emergency response and risk assessment at the community level for TCs in the coastal areas of China.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62073256)the Shaanxi Provincial Science and Technology Department(Grant No.2023-YBGY-342).
文摘To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.51408346 and 51438007the Shanghai Science and Technique Committee under Grant No.14231201300
文摘A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate （RCA） replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes （CFST）.
基金funded by the National Natu-ral Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075044 and No.41975112)a project supported by the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.311022006).
文摘This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.
文摘This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data describe the intensity and the damages, but do not give information about the vulnerability, since only in the ’90 the concept of vulnerability classes was introduced through the EMS92 and EMS98 scales. Considering EMS98 definitions, RISK-UE project derived a method for physical damage estimation. It introduced an analytical equation as a function of an only one parameter (Vulnerability Index), which correlates the seismic input, in term of Macroseismic Intensity, with the physical damage. In this study, we propose a methodology that uses optimization algorithms allowing a combination of theoretical-based with expert opinion-based assessment data. The objective of this combination is to estimate the optimal Vulnerability Index that fits the historical data, and hence, to give the minimum error in a seismic risk scenario. We apply the proposed methodology to the El Asnam earthquake (1980), but this approach remains general and can be extrapolated to any other region, and more, it can be applied to predictive studies (before each earthquake scenarios). The mathematical formulation gives choice for regarding, to the optic of minimizing the error, either for the: 1) very little damaged building (D0-D2 degree) or 2) highly damaged building (D4-D5 degree). These two different kinds of optics are adapted for the people who make organizational decisions as for mitigation measures and urban planning in the first case and civil protection and urgent action after a seismic event in the second case. The insight is used in the framework of seismic scenarios and offers advancing of damage estimation for the area in which no recent data, or either no data regarding vulnerability, are available.
基金supported by a fellowship from Design Department of Taisei Corporation。
文摘Many countries throughout the world have experienced large earthquakes,which cause building damage or collapse.After such earthquakes,structures must be inspected rapidly to judge whether they are safe to reoccupy.To facilitate the inspection process,the authors previously developed a rapid building safety assessment system using sparse acceleration measurements for steel framed buildings.The proposed system modeled nonlinearity in the measurement data using a calibrated simplified lumped-mass model and convolutional neural networks(CNNs),based on which the buildinglevel damage index was estimated rapidly after earthquakes.The proposed system was validated for a nonlinear 3D numerical model of a five-story steel building,and later for a large-scale specimen of an 18-story building in Japan tested on the E-Defense shaking table.However,the applicability of the safety assessment system for reinforced concrete(RC)structures with complex hysteretic material nonlinearity has yet to be explored;the previous approach based on a simplified lumpedmass model with a Bouc-Wen hysteretic model does not accurately represent the inherent nonlinear behavior and resulting damage states of RC structures.This study extends the rapid building safety assessment system to low-rise RC moment resisting frame structures representing typical residential apartments in Japan.First,a safety classification for RC structures based on a damage index consistent with the current state of practice is defined.Then,a 3D nonlinear numerical model of a two-story moment frame structure is created.A simplified lumped-mass nonlinear model is developed and calibrated using the 3D model,incorporating the Takeda degradation model for the RC material nonlinearity.This model is used to simulate the seismic response and associated damage sensitive features(DSF)for random ground motion.The resulting database of responses is used to train a convolutional neural network(CNN)that performs rapid safety assessment.The developed system is validated using the 3D nonlinear analysis model subjected to historical earthquakes.The results indicate the applicability of the proposed system for RC structures following seismic events.
基金Projects(51139001,51179066,51079046,50909041) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(NCET-10-0359) supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in UniversityProjects(2009586012,2009586912,2010585212)supported by the Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of China
文摘According to the characteristics of thin-layer rolling and pouting construction technology and the complicated mechanical behavior of the roller compacted concrete dam （RCCD） construction interface, a constitutive model of endochronic damage was established based on the endochronic theory and damage mechanics. The proposed model abandons the traditional concept of elastic-plastic yield surface and can better reflect the real behavior of rolled control concrete. Basic equations were proposed for the fluid-solid coupling analysis, and the relationships among the corresponding key physical parameters were also put forward. One three-dimensional finite element method （FEM） program was obtained by studying the FEM type of the seepage-stress coupling intersection of the RCCD. The method was applied to an actual project, and the results show that the fluid-solid interaction influences dam deformation and dam abutment stability, which is in accordance with practice. Therefore, this model provides a new method for revealing the mechanical behavior of RCCD under the coupling field.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.51179093 and 91215301Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education under Grant No.20130002110032
文摘This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element （FE） sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects of infinite foundation, contraction joints, and nonlinear concrete are taken into account. The detailed structures of the outlet pier are then simulated with a refined FE model in the sub-model analysis. In this way the damage mechanism of the plain （unreinforced） outlet pier is analyzed, and the effects of two reinforcement measures （i.e., post-tensioned anchor cables and reinforcing bar） on the dynamic damage to the outlet pier are investigated comprehensively. Results show that the plain pier is damaged severely by strong earthquakes while implementation of post-tensioned anchor cables strengthens the pier effectively. In addition, radiation damping strongly alleviates seismic damage to the piers.
文摘Over the past century,the safety of dams has gradually attracted attention from all parties.Research on the dynamic response and damage evolution of dams under extreme loads is the basis of dam safety issues.In recent decades,scholars have studied the responses of dams under earthquake loads,but there is still much room for improvement in experimental and theoretical research on small probability loads such as explosions.In this paper,a 50-m-high concrete gravity dam is used as a prototype dam,and a water explosion model test of a 2.5-m-high concrete gravity dam is designed.The water pressure and the acceleration response of the dam body in the test are analysed.The pressure characteristics and dynamic response of the dam body are assessed.Taking the dam damage test as an example,a numerical model of concrete gravity dam damage is established,and the damage evolution of the dam body is analysed.By combining experiments and numerical simulations,the damage characteristics of the dam body under the action of different charge water explosions are clarified.The integrity of the dam body is well maintained under the action of a small-quantity water explosion,and the dynamic response of the dam body is mainly caused by the shock wave.Both the shock wave and the bubble pulsation cause the dam body to accelerate,and the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the bubble pulsation is only one percent of the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the shock wave.When subjected to explosions in large quantities of water,the dam body is seriously damaged.Under the action of a shock wave,the dam body produces a secondary acceleration response,which is generated by an internal interaction after the dam body is damaged.The damage evolution process of the dam body under the action of a large-scale water explosion is analysed,and it is found that the shock wave pressure of the water explosion causes local damage to the dam body facing the explosion.After the peak value of the shock wave,the impulse continues to act on the dam body,causing cumulative damage and damage inside the dam body.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Numbers:41890820,51725902,52209098Special Fund for Science and Technology Innovation Strategy of Guangdong Province,Grant/Award Number:gdsky2023-02+1 种基金Newton Advanced Fellowships from the NSFC and the UK Royal Society,Grant/Award Numbers:52061130219,NAF\R1\201156Science and Technology Innovation Program from Water Resources of Guangdong Province,Grant/Award Numbers:2022-01,2023-05。
文摘Due to the high population density and economic property in urban environments,urban flooding can result in substantial economic losses.However,accurate urban flood modeling and assessing the associated damages are challenging due to complex urban layouts and rugged topography.Furthermore,the rapid development of urban underground spaces has introduced additional complexities.To address the demanding need for accurate flood modeling and damage assessment in cities,a fine-scale flood damage assessment method was proposed in this study,based on the 1D/2D coupled hydrodynamic model,which can not only assess the flood damage on the ground surface but also evaluate the flood loss in underground spaces.Taking the Gangxi drainage area in Wuhan City,China as a case,this study extensively discussed the flood inundation processes on the ground surface as well as in the buildings and underground spaces,under different rainfall scenarios with the return period ranging from 2 to 200 years.Based on the high spatial-temporal hydrodynamic simulations,the flood damage degrees were evaluated for the buildings and underground spaces with different industry types.The results indicated that the inundation of buildings and underground spaces in densely built cities cannot be neglected in urban flood modeling.Buildings with public service attributes can have a higher flood damage degree,as compared with other types of buildings and underground spaces.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques of Earth-rock Dams of the Ministry of Water Resources(Grant No.YK914019)the CRSRI Open Research Program(Grant No.CKWV2016376/KY)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51009055)
文摘Based on the damage constitutive model for concrete, the Weibull distribution function was used to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials by finely subdividing concrete slab elements, and a concrete random mesoscopic damage model was established. The seismic response of a 100-m high concrete face rockfill dam(CFRD), subjected to ground motion with different intensities, was simulated with the three-dimensional finite element method(FEM), with emphasis on exploration of damage and the cracking process of concrete slabs during earthquakes as well as analysis of dynamic damage and cracking characteristics during strong earthquakes. The calculated results show that the number of damaged and cracking elements on concrete slabs grows with the duration of earthquakes. With increasing earthquake intensity, the damaged zone and cracking zone on concrete slabs grow wider. During a 7.0-magnitude earthquake, the stress level of concrete slabs is low for the CFRD, and there is almost no damage or slight damage to the slabs. While during a 9.0-magnitude strong earthquake, the percentages of damaged elements and macrocracking elements continuously ascend with the duration of the earthquake, peaking at approximately 26% and 5% at the end of the earthquake, respectively. The concrete random mesoscopic damage model can depict the entire process of sprouting, growing, connecting, and expanding of cracks on a concrete slab during earthquakes.
文摘Damage reliability analysis is an emerging field of structural engineering which is very significant in structures of great importance like arch dams, large concrete gravity dams etc. The research objective is to design and construct an improved method for damage reliability analysis for concrete gravity dam. Firstly, pseudo excitation method and Mazar damage model were used to analyze how to calculate damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was deterministic. Moreover, response surface method was improved from the aspects of the regression of sample points, the selection of experimental points, the determined method of weight matrix and the calculation method of checking point respectively. Then, the above method was used to analyze guarantee rate of damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was random. Finally, a test example was given to verify and analyze the convergence and stability of this method. Compared with other conventional algorithm, this method has some strong points: this algorithm has good convergence and stability and greatly enhances calculation efficiency and the storage efficiency. From what has been analyzed, we find that damage expected value is insensitive to the randomness of initial elastic modulus so we can neglect the randomness of initial elastic modulus in some extent when we calculate damage expected value.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175171)Humanities and Social Science Research Project of the Ministry of Education of China (20XJC790002)National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFA0602602).
文摘Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.
文摘The seismic behavior of skewed bridges has not been well studied compared to straight bridges. Skewed bridges have shown extensive damage, especially due to deck rotation, shear keys failure, abutment unseating and column- bent drift. This research, therefore, aims to study the behavior of skewed and straight highway overpass bridges both with and without taking into account the effects of Soil-Structure Interaction （SSI） due to near-fault ground motions. Due to several sources of uncertainty associated with the ground motions, soil and structure, a probabilistic approach is needed. Thus, a probabilistic methodology similar to the one developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center （PEER） has been utilized to assess the probability of damage due to various levels of shaking using appropriate intensity measures with minimum dispersions. The probabilistic analyses were performed for various bridge configurations and site conditions, including sand ranging from loose to dense and clay ranging from soft to stiff, in order to evaluate the effects. The results proved a considerable susceptibility of skewed bridges to deck rotation and shear keys displacement. It was also found that SSI had a decreasing effect on the damage probability for various demands compared to the fixed-base model without including SSI. However, deck rotation for all types of the soil and also abutment unseating for very loose sand and soft clay showed an increase in damage probability compared to the fixed-base model. The damage probability for various demands has also been found to decrease with an increase of soil strength for both sandy and clayey sites. With respect to the variations in the skew angle, an increase in skew angle has had an increasing effect on the amplitude of the seismic response for various demands. Deck rotation has been very sensitive to the increase in the skew angle; therefore, as the skew angle increased, the deck rotation responded accordingly. Furthermore, abutment unseating showed an increasing trend due to an increase in skew angle for both fixed-base and SSI models.
基金gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606503)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71673162,71690243).
文摘Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for China.In this study,we used three widely applied integrated assessment models-FUND,RICE,and PAGE-to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(RCPs).Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5%and 0.7%of China's GDP and global GDP per 1℃ temperature rise on average,respectively.Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage.Compared with business-as-usual emissions(RCP8.5),the 2℃ target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93%and 87%,respectively,and by 80%and 84%,respectively,in the worst-case situation.Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules,requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances,particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.
基金the National "11th Five-year" Technical Supporting Project (Grant No. 2006BAJ01A10)
文摘The midpoint impact assessment methodology and several weighting methods that are currently used by most building Life cycle assessment (LCA) researchers in China, still have some shortcomings. In order to make the evaluation results have better temporal and spatial applicability, the endpoint impact assessment methodology was adopted in this paper. Based on the endpoint damage oriented concept, four endpoints of resource exhaustion, energy exhaustion, human health damage and ecosystem damage were selected according to the situation of China and the specialties of the building industry. Subsequently the formula for calculating each endpoint, the background value for normalization and the weighting factors were defined. Following that, an endpoint damage oriented model to evaluate the life cycle environmental impact of buildings in China was established. This model can produce an integrated indicator for environmental impact, and consequently provides references for directing the sustainable building design.
文摘The damage effect assessment of anti-ship missiles combines system science and weapon science,which can provide reference for the assessment of battlefield damage situation.In order to solve the difficulty of heterogeneous data aggregation and the difficulty in constructing the mapping between factors and damage effect,this paper analyzes the specific damage process of the anti-ship missile to the ship,and proposes a synthetic Evidential Reasoning(ER)–Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS)to assess the damage effect.To solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of criteria in the assessment process,the belief structure model is used to transform qualitative and quantitative information into a unified mathematical structure,and ER algorithm is used to fuse the information of lower-level criteria.In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of the information contained in the first-level variables,and the strong non-linear characteristics of the mapping between first-level variables and damage effect,the ANFIS with selfadaptation and self-learning is constructed.The map between the three first-level variables and damage effect is established,and the interaction process of the various factors in the damage effect assessment are clear.Sensitivity analysis shows that assessment model has good stability.The result analysis and comparative analysis show that the process proposed in this paper can effectively assess the damage effect of anti-ship missiles,and all criteria data are objective and comparable.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC3001000)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41871085)the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (311021004)。
文摘Rapid damage prediction for wind disasters is significant in emergency response and disaster mitigation,although it faces many challenges.In this study,a 1-km grid of wind speeds was simulated by the Holland model using the 6-h interval records of maximum wind speed(MWS) for tropical cyclones(TC) from 1949 to 2020 in South China.The MWS during a TC transit was used to build damage rate curves for affected population and direct economic losses.The results show that the Holland model can efficiently simulate the grid-level MWS,which is comparable to the ground observations with R2 of0.71 to 0.93 and mean absolute errors(MAEs) of 3.3 to 7.5 m/s.The estimated damage rates were in good agreement with the reported values with R^(2)=0.69-0.87 for affected population and R^(2)=0.65-0.84 for GDP loss.The coastal areas and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have the greatest risk of wind disasters,mainly due to the region’s high density of population and developed economy.Our proposed method is suitable for rapid damage prediction and supporting emergency response and risk assessment at the community level for TCs in the coastal areas of China.
