A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncer...A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.展开更多
The UK’s economic growth has witnessed instability over these years. While some sectors recorded positive performances, some recorded negative performances, and these unstable economic performances led to technical r...The UK’s economic growth has witnessed instability over these years. While some sectors recorded positive performances, some recorded negative performances, and these unstable economic performances led to technical recession for the third and fourth quarters of the year 2023. This study assessed the efficacy of the Generalised Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) as a flexible distributional regression with smoothing additive terms in forecasting the UK economic growth in-sample and out-of-sample over the conventional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM). The aim was to investigate the effectiveness and efficiency of GAMLSS models using a machine learning framework over the conventional time series econometric models by a rolling window. It is quantitative research which adopts a dataset obtained from the Office for National Statistics, covering 105 monthly observations of major economic indicators in the UK from January 2015 to September 2023. It consists of eleven variables, which include economic growth (Econ), consumer price index (CPI), inflation (Infl), manufacturing (Manuf), electricity and gas (ElGas), construction (Const), industries (Ind), wholesale and retail (WRet), real estate (REst), education (Edu) and health (Health). All computations and graphics in this study are obtained using R software version 4.4.1. The study revealed that GAMLSS models demonstrate superior outperformance in forecast accuracy over the ARDL and ECM models. Unlike other models used in the literature, the GAMLSS models were able to forecast both the future economic growth and the future distribution of the growth, thereby contributing to the empirical literature. The study identified manufacturing, electricity and gas, construction, industries, wholesale and retail, real estate, education, and health as key drivers of UK economic growth.展开更多
The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with clim...The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.展开更多
Rational distribution network planning optimizes power flow distribution,reduces grid stress,enhances voltage quality,promotes renewable energy utilization,and reduces costs.This study establishes a distribution netwo...Rational distribution network planning optimizes power flow distribution,reduces grid stress,enhances voltage quality,promotes renewable energy utilization,and reduces costs.This study establishes a distribution network planning model incorporating distributed wind turbines(DWT),distributed photovoltaics(DPV),and energy storage systems(ESS).K-means++is employed to partition the distribution network based on electrical distance.Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of distributed generation(DG)outputs in the same region,a joint output model of DWT and DPV is developed using the Frank-Copula.Due to the model’s high dimensionality,multiple constraints,and mixed-integer characteristics,bilevel programming theory is utilized to structure the model.The model is solved using a mixed-integer particle swarmoptimization algorithm(MIPSO)to determine the optimal location and capacity of DG and ESS integrated into the distribution network to achieve the best economic benefits and operation quality.The proposed bilevel planning method for distribution networks is validated through simulations on the modified IEEE 33-bus system.The results demonstrate significant improvements,with the proposedmethod reducing the annual comprehensive cost by 41.65%and 13.98%,respectively,compared to scenarios without DG and ESS or with only DG integration.Furthermore,it reduces the daily average voltage deviation by 24.35%and 10.24%and daily network losses by 55.72%and 35.71%.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a hybrid decode-and-forward and soft information relaying(HDFSIR)strategy to mitigate error propagation in coded cooperative communications.In the HDFSIR approach,the relay operates in decode-...In this paper,we propose a hybrid decode-and-forward and soft information relaying(HDFSIR)strategy to mitigate error propagation in coded cooperative communications.In the HDFSIR approach,the relay operates in decode-and-forward(DF)mode when it successfully decodes the received message;otherwise,it switches to soft information relaying(SIR)mode.The benefits of the DF and SIR forwarding strategies are combined to achieve better performance than deploying the DF or SIR strategy alone.Closed-form expressions for the outage probability and symbol error rate(SER)are derived for coded cooperative communication with HDFSIR and energy-harvesting relays.Additionally,we introduce a novel normalized log-likelihood-ratio based soft estimation symbol(NL-SES)mapping technique,which enhances soft symbol accuracy for higher-order modulation,and propose a model characterizing the relationship between the estimated complex soft symbol and the actual high-order modulated symbol.Further-more,the hybrid DF-SIR strategy is extended to a distributed Alamouti space-time-coded cooperative network.To evaluate the~performance of the proposed HDFSIR strategy,we implement extensive Monte Carlo simulations under varying channel conditions.Results demonstrate significant improvements with the hybrid technique outperforming individual DF and SIR strategies in both conventional and distributed Alamouti space-time coded cooperative networks.Moreover,at a SER of 10^(-3),the proposed NL-SES mapping demonstrated a 3.5 dB performance gain over the conventional averaging one,highlighting its superior accuracy in estimating soft symbols for quadrature phase-shift keying modulation.展开更多
In this paper, platoons of autonomous vehicles operating in urban road networks are considered. From a methodological point of view, the problem of interest consists of formally characterizing vehicle state trajectory...In this paper, platoons of autonomous vehicles operating in urban road networks are considered. From a methodological point of view, the problem of interest consists of formally characterizing vehicle state trajectory tubes by means of routing decisions complying with traffic congestion criteria. To this end, a novel distributed control architecture is conceived by taking advantage of two methodologies: deep reinforcement learning and model predictive control. On one hand, the routing decisions are obtained by using a distributed reinforcement learning algorithm that exploits available traffic data at each road junction. On the other hand, a bank of model predictive controllers is in charge of computing the more adequate control action for each involved vehicle. Such tasks are here combined into a single framework:the deep reinforcement learning output(action) is translated into a set-point to be tracked by the model predictive controller;conversely, the current vehicle position, resulting from the application of the control move, is exploited by the deep reinforcement learning unit for improving its reliability. The main novelty of the proposed solution lies in its hybrid nature: on one hand it fully exploits deep reinforcement learning capabilities for decisionmaking purposes;on the other hand, time-varying hard constraints are always satisfied during the dynamical platoon evolution imposed by the computed routing decisions. To efficiently evaluate the performance of the proposed control architecture, a co-design procedure, involving the SUMO and MATLAB platforms, is implemented so that complex operating environments can be used, and the information coming from road maps(links,junctions, obstacles, semaphores, etc.) and vehicle state trajectories can be shared and exchanged. Finally by considering as operating scenario a real entire city block and a platoon of eleven vehicles described by double-integrator models, several simulations have been performed with the aim to put in light the main f eatures of the proposed approach. Moreover, it is important to underline that in different operating scenarios the proposed reinforcement learning scheme is capable of significantly reducing traffic congestion phenomena when compared with well-reputed competitors.展开更多
By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets ...By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets of multi-measurements of the same ESG in different noise environments are ＂mapped＂ into a sensor network,and DKF with embedded consensus filters is then used to preprocess the data sets. After transforming the preprocessed results into the trained input and the desired output of neural network,BPNN with the learning rate and the momentum term is further utilized to identify the ESG bias. As demonstrated in the experiment,the proposed approach is effective for the model identification of the ESG bias.展开更多
A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven sym...A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven symmetric inductor to the f SR of the single-ended driven inductor is firstly predicted and explained.Compared with a single-ended configuration,experimental data demonstrate that the differential inductor offers a 127% greater maximum quality factor and a broader range of operating frequencies.Two differential inductors with low parasitical capacitance are developed and validated.展开更多
Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, ...Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, if a distributed parameter system is described by ordinary differential equations （ODE） during the analysis and the design of distributed parameter system, the reliability of the system description will be reduced, and the systemic errors will be introduced. Studies on working condition real-time monitoring can improve the security because the rechargeable LIBs are widely used in many electronic systems and electromechanical equipment. Single particle model （SPM） is the simplification of LIB under some approximations, and can estimate the working parameters of a LIB at the faster simulation speed. A LIB modelling algorithm based on PDEs and SPM is proposed to monitor the working condition of LIBs in real time. Although the lithium ion concentration is an unmeasurable distributed parameter in the anode of LIB, the working condition monitoring model can track the real time lithium ion concentration in the anode of LIB, and calculate the residual which is the difference between the ideal data and the measured data. A fault alarm can be triggered when the residual is beyond the preset threshold. A simulation example verifies that the effectiveness and the accuracy of the working condition real-time monitoring model of LIB based on PDEs and SPM.展开更多
The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribut...The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.展开更多
In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining ...In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.展开更多
The emerging virtual coupling technology aims to operate multiple train units in a Virtually Coupled Train Set(VCTS)at a minimal but safe distance.To guarantee collision avoidance,the safety distance should be calcula...The emerging virtual coupling technology aims to operate multiple train units in a Virtually Coupled Train Set(VCTS)at a minimal but safe distance.To guarantee collision avoidance,the safety distance should be calculated using the state-of-the-art space-time separation principle that separates the Emergency Braking(EB)trajectories of two successive units during the whole EB process.In this case,the minimal safety distance is usually numerically calculated without an analytic formulation.Thus,the constrained VCTS control problem is hard to address with space-time separation,which is still a gap in the existing literature.To solve this problem,we propose a Distributed Economic Model Predictive Control(DEMPC)approach with computation efficiency and theoretical guarantee.Specifically,to alleviate the computation burden,we transform implicit safety constraints into explicitly linear ones,such that the optimal control problem in DEMPC is a quadratic programming problem that can be solved efficiently.For theoretical analysis,sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the recursive feasibility and stability of DEMPC,employing compatibility constraints,tube techniques and terminal ingredient tuning.Moreover,we extend our approach with globally optimal and distributed online EB configuration methods to shorten the minimal distance among VCTS.Finally,experimental results demonstrate the performance and advantages of the proposed approaches.展开更多
In order to predict the futuristic runoff under global warming, and to approach to the effects of vegetation on the ecological environment of the inland river mountainous watershed of Nort...In order to predict the futuristic runoff under global warming, and to approach to the effects of vegetation on the ecological environment of the inland river mountainous watershed of Northwest China, the authors use the routine hydrometric data to create a distributed monthly model with some conceptual parameters, coupled with GIS and RS tools and data. The model takes sub-basin as the minimal confluent unit, divides the main soils of the basin into 3 layers, and identifies the vegetation types as forest and pasture. The data used in the model are precipitation, air temperature, runoff, soil weight water content, soil depth, soil bulk density, soil porosity, land cover, etc. The model holds that if the water amount is greater than the water content capacity, there will be surface runoff. The actual evaporation is proportional to the product of the potential evaporation and soil volume water content. The studied basin is Heihe mainstream mountainous basin, with a drainage area of 10,009 km 2 . The data used in this simulation are from Jan. 1980 to Dec. 1995, and the first 10 years' data are used to simulate, while the last 5 years' data are used to calibrate. For the simulation process, the Nash-Sutcliffe Equation, Balance Error and Explained Variance is 0.8681, 5.4008 and 0.8718 respectively, while for the calibration process, 0.8799, -0.5974 and 0.8800 respectively. The model results show that the futuristic runoff of Heihe river basin will increase a little. The snowmelt, glacier meltwater and the evaportranspiration will increase. The air temperature increment will make the permanent snow and glacier area diminish, and the snowline will rise. The vegetation, especially the forest in Heihe mountainous watershed, could lead to the evapotranspiration decrease of the watershed, adjust the runoff process, and increase the soil water content.展开更多
The rapid development of Internet technology makes it possible to integrate GIS with the Internet,forming Internet GIS.Internet GIS is based on a distributed client/server architecture and TCP/IP & IIOP.When const...The rapid development of Internet technology makes it possible to integrate GIS with the Internet,forming Internet GIS.Internet GIS is based on a distributed client/server architecture and TCP/IP & IIOP.When constructing and designing Internet GIS,we face the problem of how to express information units of Internet GIS.In order to solve this problem,this paper presents a distributed hypermap model for Internet GIS.This model provides a solution to organize and manage Internet GIS information units.It also illustrates relations between two information units and in an internal information unit both on clients and servers.On the basis of this model,the paper contributes to the expressions of hypermap relations and hypermap operations.The usage of this model is shown in the implementation of a prototype system.展开更多
A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam he...A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam height, a hydraulic method was chosen to simulate the initial scour position on the downstream slope, with the steepening of the downstream slope taken into account; a headcut erosion formula was adopted to simulate the backward erosion as well. The moment equilibrium method was utilized to calculate the ultimate length of a concrete slab under its self-weight and water loads. The calculated results of the Gouhou CFRD breach case show that the proposed model provides reasonable peak breach flow, final breach width, and failure time, with relative errors less than 15% as compared with the measured data. Sensitivity studies show that the outputs of the proposed model are more or less sensitive to different parameters. Three typical parametric models were compared with the proposed model, and the comparison demonstrates that the proposed physically-based breach model performs better and provides more detailed results than the parametric models.展开更多
In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By u...In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.展开更多
Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data...Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.展开更多
In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather...In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.展开更多
In this study, we investigated the origin of the overland flow roughness problem and divided the current overland flow roughness research into three types, as follows: the first type of research takes into account the...In this study, we investigated the origin of the overland flow roughness problem and divided the current overland flow roughness research into three types, as follows: the first type of research takes into account the effects of roughness on the volume and velocity of surface runoff, flood peaks, and the scouring capability of flows, but has not addressed the spatial variability of roughness in detail; the second type of research considers that surface roughness varies spatially with different land usage types, land-cover conditions, and different tillage forms, but lacks a quantitative study of the spatial variability; and the third type of research simply deals with the spatial variability of roughness in each grid cell or land type. We present three shortcomings of the current overland flow roughness research, including(1) the neglect of roughness in distributed hydrological models when simulating the overland flow direction and distribution,(2) the lack of consideration of spatial variability of roughness in hydrological models, and(3) the failure to distinguish the roughness formulas in different overland flow regimes. To solve these problems,distributed hydrological model research should focus on four aspects in regard to overland flow: velocity field observations, flow regime mechanisms, a basic roughness theory, and scale problems.展开更多
In the discipline of geotechnical engineering, fiber optic sensor based distributed monitoring has played an increasingly important role over the past few decades. Compared with conventional sensors, fiber optic senso...In the discipline of geotechnical engineering, fiber optic sensor based distributed monitoring has played an increasingly important role over the past few decades. Compared with conventional sensors, fiber optic sensors have a variety of exclusive advantages, such as smaller size, higher precision, and better corrosion resistance. These innovative monitoring technologies have been successfully applied for performance monitoring of geo-structures and early warning of potential geo- hazards around the world. In order to investigate their ability to monitor slope stability problems, a medium-sized model of soil nailed slope has been constructed in laboratory. The fully distributed Brillouin optical time-domain analysis （BOTDA） sensing technology was employed to measure the horizontal strain distributions inside the model slope. During model construction, a specially designed strain sensing fiber was buried in the soil mass. Afterward, the surcharge loading was applied on the slope crest in stages using hydraulic jacks and a reaction frame. During testing, an NBX-6o5o BOTDA sensing interrogator was used to collect the fiber optic sensing data. The test results have been analyzed in detail, which shows that the fiber optic sensors can capture the progressive deformation and failure pattern of the model slope. The limit equilibrium analyses were also conducted to obtain the factors ofsafety of the slope under different surface loadings. It is found that the characteristic maximum strains can reflect the stability of the model slope and an empirical relationship was obtained, This study verified the effectiveness of the distributed BOTDA sensing technology in performance monitoring of slope.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24B20156)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China(No.JCKY2021204B051)the National Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control of China(Nos.HTKJ2023KL502005 and HTKJ2024KL502007)。
文摘A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.
文摘The UK’s economic growth has witnessed instability over these years. While some sectors recorded positive performances, some recorded negative performances, and these unstable economic performances led to technical recession for the third and fourth quarters of the year 2023. This study assessed the efficacy of the Generalised Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) as a flexible distributional regression with smoothing additive terms in forecasting the UK economic growth in-sample and out-of-sample over the conventional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM). The aim was to investigate the effectiveness and efficiency of GAMLSS models using a machine learning framework over the conventional time series econometric models by a rolling window. It is quantitative research which adopts a dataset obtained from the Office for National Statistics, covering 105 monthly observations of major economic indicators in the UK from January 2015 to September 2023. It consists of eleven variables, which include economic growth (Econ), consumer price index (CPI), inflation (Infl), manufacturing (Manuf), electricity and gas (ElGas), construction (Const), industries (Ind), wholesale and retail (WRet), real estate (REst), education (Edu) and health (Health). All computations and graphics in this study are obtained using R software version 4.4.1. The study revealed that GAMLSS models demonstrate superior outperformance in forecast accuracy over the ARDL and ECM models. Unlike other models used in the literature, the GAMLSS models were able to forecast both the future economic growth and the future distribution of the growth, thereby contributing to the empirical literature. The study identified manufacturing, electricity and gas, construction, industries, wholesale and retail, real estate, education, and health as key drivers of UK economic growth.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1427100)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFD2401303)the Shanghai Talent Development Funding for the Project(No.2021078)。
文摘The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.
基金This research was funded by“Chunhui Program”Collaborative Scientific Research Project of the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China(Project No.HZKY20220242)the S&T Program of Hebei(Project No.225676163GH).
文摘Rational distribution network planning optimizes power flow distribution,reduces grid stress,enhances voltage quality,promotes renewable energy utilization,and reduces costs.This study establishes a distribution network planning model incorporating distributed wind turbines(DWT),distributed photovoltaics(DPV),and energy storage systems(ESS).K-means++is employed to partition the distribution network based on electrical distance.Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of distributed generation(DG)outputs in the same region,a joint output model of DWT and DPV is developed using the Frank-Copula.Due to the model’s high dimensionality,multiple constraints,and mixed-integer characteristics,bilevel programming theory is utilized to structure the model.The model is solved using a mixed-integer particle swarmoptimization algorithm(MIPSO)to determine the optimal location and capacity of DG and ESS integrated into the distribution network to achieve the best economic benefits and operation quality.The proposed bilevel planning method for distribution networks is validated through simulations on the modified IEEE 33-bus system.The results demonstrate significant improvements,with the proposedmethod reducing the annual comprehensive cost by 41.65%and 13.98%,respectively,compared to scenarios without DG and ESS or with only DG integration.Furthermore,it reduces the daily average voltage deviation by 24.35%and 10.24%and daily network losses by 55.72%and 35.71%.
基金funded by the Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research at Jouf University under grant No.(DGSSR-2024-02-02160).
文摘In this paper,we propose a hybrid decode-and-forward and soft information relaying(HDFSIR)strategy to mitigate error propagation in coded cooperative communications.In the HDFSIR approach,the relay operates in decode-and-forward(DF)mode when it successfully decodes the received message;otherwise,it switches to soft information relaying(SIR)mode.The benefits of the DF and SIR forwarding strategies are combined to achieve better performance than deploying the DF or SIR strategy alone.Closed-form expressions for the outage probability and symbol error rate(SER)are derived for coded cooperative communication with HDFSIR and energy-harvesting relays.Additionally,we introduce a novel normalized log-likelihood-ratio based soft estimation symbol(NL-SES)mapping technique,which enhances soft symbol accuracy for higher-order modulation,and propose a model characterizing the relationship between the estimated complex soft symbol and the actual high-order modulated symbol.Further-more,the hybrid DF-SIR strategy is extended to a distributed Alamouti space-time-coded cooperative network.To evaluate the~performance of the proposed HDFSIR strategy,we implement extensive Monte Carlo simulations under varying channel conditions.Results demonstrate significant improvements with the hybrid technique outperforming individual DF and SIR strategies in both conventional and distributed Alamouti space-time coded cooperative networks.Moreover,at a SER of 10^(-3),the proposed NL-SES mapping demonstrated a 3.5 dB performance gain over the conventional averaging one,highlighting its superior accuracy in estimating soft symbols for quadrature phase-shift keying modulation.
文摘In this paper, platoons of autonomous vehicles operating in urban road networks are considered. From a methodological point of view, the problem of interest consists of formally characterizing vehicle state trajectory tubes by means of routing decisions complying with traffic congestion criteria. To this end, a novel distributed control architecture is conceived by taking advantage of two methodologies: deep reinforcement learning and model predictive control. On one hand, the routing decisions are obtained by using a distributed reinforcement learning algorithm that exploits available traffic data at each road junction. On the other hand, a bank of model predictive controllers is in charge of computing the more adequate control action for each involved vehicle. Such tasks are here combined into a single framework:the deep reinforcement learning output(action) is translated into a set-point to be tracked by the model predictive controller;conversely, the current vehicle position, resulting from the application of the control move, is exploited by the deep reinforcement learning unit for improving its reliability. The main novelty of the proposed solution lies in its hybrid nature: on one hand it fully exploits deep reinforcement learning capabilities for decisionmaking purposes;on the other hand, time-varying hard constraints are always satisfied during the dynamical platoon evolution imposed by the computed routing decisions. To efficiently evaluate the performance of the proposed control architecture, a co-design procedure, involving the SUMO and MATLAB platforms, is implemented so that complex operating environments can be used, and the information coming from road maps(links,junctions, obstacles, semaphores, etc.) and vehicle state trajectories can be shared and exchanged. Finally by considering as operating scenario a real entire city block and a platoon of eleven vehicles described by double-integrator models, several simulations have been performed with the aim to put in light the main f eatures of the proposed approach. Moreover, it is important to underline that in different operating scenarios the proposed reinforcement learning scheme is capable of significantly reducing traffic congestion phenomena when compared with well-reputed competitors.
文摘By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets of multi-measurements of the same ESG in different noise environments are ＂mapped＂ into a sensor network,and DKF with embedded consensus filters is then used to preprocess the data sets. After transforming the preprocessed results into the trained input and the desired output of neural network,BPNN with the learning rate and the momentum term is further utilized to identify the ESG bias. As demonstrated in the experiment,the proposed approach is effective for the model identification of the ESG bias.
文摘A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven symmetric inductor to the f SR of the single-ended driven inductor is firstly predicted and explained.Compared with a single-ended configuration,experimental data demonstrate that the differential inductor offers a 127% greater maximum quality factor and a broader range of operating frequencies.Two differential inductors with low parasitical capacitance are developed and validated.
文摘Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, if a distributed parameter system is described by ordinary differential equations （ODE） during the analysis and the design of distributed parameter system, the reliability of the system description will be reduced, and the systemic errors will be introduced. Studies on working condition real-time monitoring can improve the security because the rechargeable LIBs are widely used in many electronic systems and electromechanical equipment. Single particle model （SPM） is the simplification of LIB under some approximations, and can estimate the working parameters of a LIB at the faster simulation speed. A LIB modelling algorithm based on PDEs and SPM is proposed to monitor the working condition of LIBs in real time. Although the lithium ion concentration is an unmeasurable distributed parameter in the anode of LIB, the working condition monitoring model can track the real time lithium ion concentration in the anode of LIB, and calculate the residual which is the difference between the ideal data and the measured data. A fault alarm can be triggered when the residual is beyond the preset threshold. A simulation example verifies that the effectiveness and the accuracy of the working condition real-time monitoring model of LIB based on PDEs and SPM.
文摘The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62272124)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2701401)+3 种基金Guizhou Province Science and Technology Plan Project(Grant Nos.Qiankehe Paltform Talent[2020]5017)The Research Project of Guizhou University for Talent Introduction(No.[2020]61)the Cultivation Project of Guizhou University(No.[2019]56)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,Ministry of Education(GZUAMT2021KF[01]).
文摘In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52372310)the State Key Laboratory of Advanced Rail Autonomous Operation(RAO2023ZZ001)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2022JBQY001)Beijing Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit.
文摘The emerging virtual coupling technology aims to operate multiple train units in a Virtually Coupled Train Set(VCTS)at a minimal but safe distance.To guarantee collision avoidance,the safety distance should be calculated using the state-of-the-art space-time separation principle that separates the Emergency Braking(EB)trajectories of two successive units during the whole EB process.In this case,the minimal safety distance is usually numerically calculated without an analytic formulation.Thus,the constrained VCTS control problem is hard to address with space-time separation,which is still a gap in the existing literature.To solve this problem,we propose a Distributed Economic Model Predictive Control(DEMPC)approach with computation efficiency and theoretical guarantee.Specifically,to alleviate the computation burden,we transform implicit safety constraints into explicitly linear ones,such that the optimal control problem in DEMPC is a quadratic programming problem that can be solved efficiently.For theoretical analysis,sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the recursive feasibility and stability of DEMPC,employing compatibility constraints,tube techniques and terminal ingredient tuning.Moreover,we extend our approach with globally optimal and distributed online EB configuration methods to shorten the minimal distance among VCTS.Finally,experimental results demonstrate the performance and advantages of the proposed approaches.
基金Chinese Academy of Sciences No.KZCX3-SW-329 No.KZCX1-10-03-01+1 种基金 No.CACX210036 No.CACX210016
文摘In order to predict the futuristic runoff under global warming, and to approach to the effects of vegetation on the ecological environment of the inland river mountainous watershed of Northwest China, the authors use the routine hydrometric data to create a distributed monthly model with some conceptual parameters, coupled with GIS and RS tools and data. The model takes sub-basin as the minimal confluent unit, divides the main soils of the basin into 3 layers, and identifies the vegetation types as forest and pasture. The data used in the model are precipitation, air temperature, runoff, soil weight water content, soil depth, soil bulk density, soil porosity, land cover, etc. The model holds that if the water amount is greater than the water content capacity, there will be surface runoff. The actual evaporation is proportional to the product of the potential evaporation and soil volume water content. The studied basin is Heihe mainstream mountainous basin, with a drainage area of 10,009 km 2 . The data used in this simulation are from Jan. 1980 to Dec. 1995, and the first 10 years' data are used to simulate, while the last 5 years' data are used to calibrate. For the simulation process, the Nash-Sutcliffe Equation, Balance Error and Explained Variance is 0.8681, 5.4008 and 0.8718 respectively, while for the calibration process, 0.8799, -0.5974 and 0.8800 respectively. The model results show that the futuristic runoff of Heihe river basin will increase a little. The snowmelt, glacier meltwater and the evaportranspiration will increase. The air temperature increment will make the permanent snow and glacier area diminish, and the snowline will rise. The vegetation, especially the forest in Heihe mountainous watershed, could lead to the evapotranspiration decrease of the watershed, adjust the runoff process, and increase the soil water content.
文摘The rapid development of Internet technology makes it possible to integrate GIS with the Internet,forming Internet GIS.Internet GIS is based on a distributed client/server architecture and TCP/IP & IIOP.When constructing and designing Internet GIS,we face the problem of how to express information units of Internet GIS.In order to solve this problem,this paper presents a distributed hypermap model for Internet GIS.This model provides a solution to organize and manage Internet GIS information units.It also illustrates relations between two information units and in an internal information unit both on clients and servers.On the basis of this model,the paper contributes to the expressions of hypermap relations and hypermap operations.The usage of this model is shown in the implementation of a prototype system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779153,51539006,and 51509156)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20161121)
文摘A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam height, a hydraulic method was chosen to simulate the initial scour position on the downstream slope, with the steepening of the downstream slope taken into account; a headcut erosion formula was adopted to simulate the backward erosion as well. The moment equilibrium method was utilized to calculate the ultimate length of a concrete slab under its self-weight and water loads. The calculated results of the Gouhou CFRD breach case show that the proposed model provides reasonable peak breach flow, final breach width, and failure time, with relative errors less than 15% as compared with the measured data. Sensitivity studies show that the outputs of the proposed model are more or less sensitive to different parameters. Three typical parametric models were compared with the proposed model, and the comparison demonstrates that the proposed physically-based breach model performs better and provides more detailed results than the parametric models.
基金supported in part by JSPS Fellows,No.237213 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the first authorthe Grant MTM2010-18318 of the MICINN,Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation to the second authorScientific Research (c),No.21540230 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the third author
文摘In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.
文摘Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.
文摘In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41471025 and 40971021)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2014DM004)
文摘In this study, we investigated the origin of the overland flow roughness problem and divided the current overland flow roughness research into three types, as follows: the first type of research takes into account the effects of roughness on the volume and velocity of surface runoff, flood peaks, and the scouring capability of flows, but has not addressed the spatial variability of roughness in detail; the second type of research considers that surface roughness varies spatially with different land usage types, land-cover conditions, and different tillage forms, but lacks a quantitative study of the spatial variability; and the third type of research simply deals with the spatial variability of roughness in each grid cell or land type. We present three shortcomings of the current overland flow roughness research, including(1) the neglect of roughness in distributed hydrological models when simulating the overland flow direction and distribution,(2) the lack of consideration of spatial variability of roughness in hydrological models, and(3) the failure to distinguish the roughness formulas in different overland flow regimes. To solve these problems,distributed hydrological model research should focus on four aspects in regard to overland flow: velocity field observations, flow regime mechanisms, a basic roughness theory, and scale problems.
基金the financial support provided by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2011CB710605)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41102174, 41302217)supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2012BAK10B05)
文摘In the discipline of geotechnical engineering, fiber optic sensor based distributed monitoring has played an increasingly important role over the past few decades. Compared with conventional sensors, fiber optic sensors have a variety of exclusive advantages, such as smaller size, higher precision, and better corrosion resistance. These innovative monitoring technologies have been successfully applied for performance monitoring of geo-structures and early warning of potential geo- hazards around the world. In order to investigate their ability to monitor slope stability problems, a medium-sized model of soil nailed slope has been constructed in laboratory. The fully distributed Brillouin optical time-domain analysis （BOTDA） sensing technology was employed to measure the horizontal strain distributions inside the model slope. During model construction, a specially designed strain sensing fiber was buried in the soil mass. Afterward, the surcharge loading was applied on the slope crest in stages using hydraulic jacks and a reaction frame. During testing, an NBX-6o5o BOTDA sensing interrogator was used to collect the fiber optic sensing data. The test results have been analyzed in detail, which shows that the fiber optic sensors can capture the progressive deformation and failure pattern of the model slope. The limit equilibrium analyses were also conducted to obtain the factors ofsafety of the slope under different surface loadings. It is found that the characteristic maximum strains can reflect the stability of the model slope and an empirical relationship was obtained, This study verified the effectiveness of the distributed BOTDA sensing technology in performance monitoring of slope.
