Quick and reliable identification of the traffic state is of critical importance to traffic control systems, especially when spillovers appear. Firstly, a calculation method for the occupancy per cycle under different...Quick and reliable identification of the traffic state is of critical importance to traffic control systems, especially when spillovers appear. Firstly, a calculation method for the occupancy per cycle under different traffic conditions were presented, based on the relationship between the three basic traffic flow parameters, speed, traffic flow and density. Secondly, the times at which the stopping and starting waves approach a loop detector were confirmed using the traffic wave models modified by a kinematic equation. Then, the threshold of occupancy, which characterizes the appearance of spillovers, was determined by the premise that the stopping and starting waves had the same speed. At last, the accuracy and usability of the new method were verified by VISSIM simulation, using the ratio of misjudgment as the evaluation index. The results show that the ratio of misjudgment of the new method is about 11.36% compared to 17.65% of the previous method.展开更多
Theoretically, infrastructure construction helps remove domestic market segregation and thus create a modern market system. Based on the theory of new economy geography, this paper investigates the relationship betwee...Theoretically, infrastructure construction helps remove domestic market segregation and thus create a modern market system. Based on the theory of new economy geography, this paper investigates the relationship between infrastructure construction and market segregation using the Spatial Panel Dubin Model(SPDM) based on China's interprovincial panel data of 1993-2012. As shown by empirical result, the beggar-thyneighbor problem existed persistently within China, infrastructure construction helped remove market segregation and should be enhanced, infrastructure construction had heterogeneous spatial spillover effects across periods, and market segregation behaviors were heterogeneous across regions or localities. China should enhance infrastructure to narrow regional gaps and step up cooperation among investors across regions to reduce the adverse impact of geographical boundary, and create modern service-based local governments, allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.展开更多
This article calculates the technological spillover effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta through Panel Data, and analyzes the influence on the technological s...This article calculates the technological spillover effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta through Panel Data, and analyzes the influence on the technological spillover effects of the following factors in these two different areas: human capital, the opening up, R&D and the source of FDI. It makes the conclusion that FDI in different areas has different technological spillover effects and the local governments should make different policies accordingly so as to gain more obvious technology spillover effects.展开更多
The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For thi...The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.展开更多
Using panel data of 29 regions in China from 1999 to 2007, this paper presents a systematic evaluation of how FDI＇s spillover effects impact the quality of China＇s indigenous econotnic growth, Research outcomes sugg...Using panel data of 29 regions in China from 1999 to 2007, this paper presents a systematic evaluation of how FDI＇s spillover effects impact the quality of China＇s indigenous econotnic growth, Research outcomes suggest that technology transfers and diffusion have a positive effect on indigenous growth quality. Spitlover effects （mainly competition effect） have primarily negatively affected indigenous growth quality. The effect on indigenous growth quality is positive only in sub-samples with high foreign capital concentration and ,,hen the spillover effect is similar to the technology transfer and diffusion effect brought about by localization. It is also found that technology gaps, foreign capital concentration and value added ratio gaps are important factors affecting the impact of technology transfer and diffusion on indigenous economic growth.展开更多
The spatial spillover effect of energy insecurity on total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry,as well as the potential moderating role of industrial agglomeration,remains poorly understood.This study i...The spatial spillover effect of energy insecurity on total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry,as well as the potential moderating role of industrial agglomeration,remains poorly understood.This study inves-tigated the spatial spillover effect of energy security on total factor productivity and the moderating role of industrial agglomeration in the relationship between energy security and total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.Panel data from 24 provinces in China spanning the years 2010 to 2019 were used for this analysis.The research findings demonstrate a positive spatial spillover effect of energy security on total factor productivity,which displays a distinct pattern of attenuated spatial spillover effects.Moreover,evidence from quasi-natural experiments shows a negative spillover effect on total factor productivity when using the energy security-policy interaction term,high-lighting the significant impact of policy factors on total factor productivity.Threshold effect tests reveal a“strong-weak”V-shaped trend in the impact of energy security with the increase of industrial agglomeration levels.In addition,this study found an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy security and the impact of industrial agglomeration,suggesting that enhancing energy security contributes to the growth of total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.The ultimate objective of this research is to provide valuable policy recommendations to the government for ensuring energy security and promoting the sustainable growth of total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.展开更多
With rapid urbanization and energy consumption, environmental pollution and degradation have become increasingly serious problems in China. At the beginning of 2013, China implemented new ambient air quality standards...With rapid urbanization and energy consumption, environmental pollution and degradation have become increasingly serious problems in China. At the beginning of 2013, China implemented new ambient air quality standards（GB 3095-2012） in which the concentration of six pollutants including PM2.5, ozone, carbon monoxide, PM10, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored. This study gathered annual air pollutant concentration data for the six pollutants in 113 key environmental protection cites throughout China in 2014 and 2015 to explain spatial patterns of urban air pollution. Based on the Kernel density estimation method, spatial hotspots of air pollution were illustrated through which spatial cluster of each pollutants could be plotted. By employing an entropy evaluation system, urban air quality was assessed in terms of the six atmospheric pollutants. We conclude that, in general, CO and SO2 were two important pollutants in most Chinese cities, but this varied greatly among cities. The assessment results indicate that cities with the worst air quality were mainly located in northern and central provinces, dominantly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Regression modeling showed that a combination of meteorological factors and human-related determinants, to say specifically, industrialization and urbanization factors, greatly influenced urban air quality variation in China. Results from spatial lag regression modeling confirmed that air pollution existed obvious spatial spillover effects among key cities. The spatial interdependence effects of urban air quality means that Chinese municipal governments should strengthen regional cooperation and deepen bilateral collaboration in terms of air regulation and pollution prevention.展开更多
Using an exploratory spatial data analytical tool, this paper examines the spatial distribution patterns and features of GDP per capita in each of China＇s provinces. The results indicate that a positive global spatia...Using an exploratory spatial data analytical tool, this paper examines the spatial distribution patterns and features of GDP per capita in each of China＇s provinces. The results indicate that a positive global spatial autocorrelation exists and increases over time. At the same time, local correlation shows that China＇s local spatial agglomeration is becoming ever more marked. Based on a new economic geography model signaling the effects of market potential on regional economic development, this paper further investigates spatial spillover effects on Chinese regional economic growth through econometric analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that spatial spillovers play an important role in China＇s regional economic development. Every 1 percent increase in market potential leads to an increase of 0.47 percent in regional GDP per capita, outperforming increases in regional fixed assets investment in terms of elasticity. Of course, our analysis also shows that spatial spillover effects decrease as inter-regional distance increases.展开更多
Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effecti...Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions, whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country's right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8 ℃by 2100; consequently, much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.展开更多
The worldwide increase in consumption levels is a major cause of the dramatic rise in greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of consumption-based carbon emissions and the factors in...The worldwide increase in consumption levels is a major cause of the dramatic rise in greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of consumption-based carbon emissions and the factors influencing it would facilitate the design of climate policies. This article employs data in the multi-regional input-output tables and on sectoral carbon emissions from the World Input-Output Database （WIOD） to develop a multi-regional input-out （MR/O） model, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory and analyzing global consumption-based carbon emissions and the spillover effects of international carbon emissions. The results show that global consumption- based carbon emissions in 2009 were 28850 Mt, of which about 20 percent were embodied in international trade. A large part of these emissions derived from production in and exportsfrom China and the region comprising Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Australia and Turkey （BRIIAT）, production and exports which were consumed in NAFTA and the Eurozone. If the factor of intemational trade is taken into consideration, the inter-regional gap in carbon emission intensity narrows, ranging from 2.4 t （BRIIAT） to 14.7 t （NAFTA） consumption-based emissions per capita. Whereas embodied imported carbon accounted for 33 percent and 17 percent in NAFTA and the Eurozone respectively, 29 percent of China＇s carbon emissions were caused by the consumption of other countries. Therefore, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory has become increasingly important for international climate negotiations. Moreover, allocating responsibility for carbon emissions between the producer and the consumer will help change the existing mode of consumption and promote emission reduction.展开更多
The paper analyses the changes in the China＇s auto industry, showing how the rapid growth in production and sales between 2000 and 2008 came largely from the economic growth. The emergence of homegrown assemblers str...The paper analyses the changes in the China＇s auto industry, showing how the rapid growth in production and sales between 2000 and 2008 came largely from the economic growth. The emergence of homegrown assemblers strengthened fierce competition for all assemblers and resulted in the spreading of regional auto production networks with linkage to leading international automakers. This move integrated China＇s major regional production into the global chain and speeded up technology spillovers in the automobile industry. The paper reveals how the relationships between homegrown makers and joint ventures have been coordinated within the framework of local production networks, which turn out to have a highly localized production capacity. Furthermore, the results stand testimony for the fact that China＇s auto industry is becoming competitive through learning-by-doing. In the future outlook, the growing economy in China will be the most influential driving force to shift the global auto industry into China, which will turn out to be a super auto giant in the coming decade.展开更多
基金Project(2011AA110304) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China
文摘Quick and reliable identification of the traffic state is of critical importance to traffic control systems, especially when spillovers appear. Firstly, a calculation method for the occupancy per cycle under different traffic conditions were presented, based on the relationship between the three basic traffic flow parameters, speed, traffic flow and density. Secondly, the times at which the stopping and starting waves approach a loop detector were confirmed using the traffic wave models modified by a kinematic equation. Then, the threshold of occupancy, which characterizes the appearance of spillovers, was determined by the premise that the stopping and starting waves had the same speed. At last, the accuracy and usability of the new method were verified by VISSIM simulation, using the ratio of misjudgment as the evaluation index. The results show that the ratio of misjudgment of the new method is about 11.36% compared to 17.65% of the previous method.
基金supported by the Emergency Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71541022)the Youth Foundation Program of Humanities and Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education(15YJC790134)
文摘Theoretically, infrastructure construction helps remove domestic market segregation and thus create a modern market system. Based on the theory of new economy geography, this paper investigates the relationship between infrastructure construction and market segregation using the Spatial Panel Dubin Model(SPDM) based on China's interprovincial panel data of 1993-2012. As shown by empirical result, the beggar-thyneighbor problem existed persistently within China, infrastructure construction helped remove market segregation and should be enhanced, infrastructure construction had heterogeneous spatial spillover effects across periods, and market segregation behaviors were heterogeneous across regions or localities. China should enhance infrastructure to narrow regional gaps and step up cooperation among investors across regions to reduce the adverse impact of geographical boundary, and create modern service-based local governments, allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.
基金Funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70472060).
文摘This article calculates the technological spillover effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta through Panel Data, and analyzes the influence on the technological spillover effects of the following factors in these two different areas: human capital, the opening up, R&D and the source of FDI. It makes the conclusion that FDI in different areas has different technological spillover effects and the local governments should make different policies accordingly so as to gain more obvious technology spillover effects.
文摘The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.
文摘Using panel data of 29 regions in China from 1999 to 2007, this paper presents a systematic evaluation of how FDI＇s spillover effects impact the quality of China＇s indigenous econotnic growth, Research outcomes suggest that technology transfers and diffusion have a positive effect on indigenous growth quality. Spitlover effects （mainly competition effect） have primarily negatively affected indigenous growth quality. The effect on indigenous growth quality is positive only in sub-samples with high foreign capital concentration and ,,hen the spillover effect is similar to the technology transfer and diffusion effect brought about by localization. It is also found that technology gaps, foreign capital concentration and value added ratio gaps are important factors affecting the impact of technology transfer and diffusion on indigenous economic growth.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(71871016,72394372)。
文摘The spatial spillover effect of energy insecurity on total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry,as well as the potential moderating role of industrial agglomeration,remains poorly understood.This study inves-tigated the spatial spillover effect of energy security on total factor productivity and the moderating role of industrial agglomeration in the relationship between energy security and total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.Panel data from 24 provinces in China spanning the years 2010 to 2019 were used for this analysis.The research findings demonstrate a positive spatial spillover effect of energy security on total factor productivity,which displays a distinct pattern of attenuated spatial spillover effects.Moreover,evidence from quasi-natural experiments shows a negative spillover effect on total factor productivity when using the energy security-policy interaction term,high-lighting the significant impact of policy factors on total factor productivity.Threshold effect tests reveal a“strong-weak”V-shaped trend in the impact of energy security with the increase of industrial agglomeration levels.In addition,this study found an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy security and the impact of industrial agglomeration,suggesting that enhancing energy security contributes to the growth of total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.The ultimate objective of this research is to provide valuable policy recommendations to the government for ensuring energy security and promoting the sustainable growth of total factor productivity in the iron and steel industry.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771133)Science and Technology Service Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Technical Regulations of Urban Planning:KFJ-EW-STS-089)
文摘With rapid urbanization and energy consumption, environmental pollution and degradation have become increasingly serious problems in China. At the beginning of 2013, China implemented new ambient air quality standards（GB 3095-2012） in which the concentration of six pollutants including PM2.5, ozone, carbon monoxide, PM10, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored. This study gathered annual air pollutant concentration data for the six pollutants in 113 key environmental protection cites throughout China in 2014 and 2015 to explain spatial patterns of urban air pollution. Based on the Kernel density estimation method, spatial hotspots of air pollution were illustrated through which spatial cluster of each pollutants could be plotted. By employing an entropy evaluation system, urban air quality was assessed in terms of the six atmospheric pollutants. We conclude that, in general, CO and SO2 were two important pollutants in most Chinese cities, but this varied greatly among cities. The assessment results indicate that cities with the worst air quality were mainly located in northern and central provinces, dominantly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Regression modeling showed that a combination of meteorological factors and human-related determinants, to say specifically, industrialization and urbanization factors, greatly influenced urban air quality variation in China. Results from spatial lag regression modeling confirmed that air pollution existed obvious spatial spillover effects among key cities. The spatial interdependence effects of urban air quality means that Chinese municipal governments should strengthen regional cooperation and deepen bilateral collaboration in terms of air regulation and pollution prevention.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.7087307171173132)the National Social Science Fund(10ZD&007)
文摘Using an exploratory spatial data analytical tool, this paper examines the spatial distribution patterns and features of GDP per capita in each of China＇s provinces. The results indicate that a positive global spatial autocorrelation exists and increases over time. At the same time, local correlation shows that China＇s local spatial agglomeration is becoming ever more marked. Based on a new economic geography model signaling the effects of market potential on regional economic development, this paper further investigates spatial spillover effects on Chinese regional economic growth through econometric analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that spatial spillovers play an important role in China＇s regional economic development. Every 1 percent increase in market potential leads to an increase of 0.47 percent in regional GDP per capita, outperforming increases in regional fixed assets investment in terms of elasticity. Of course, our analysis also shows that spatial spillover effects decrease as inter-regional distance increases.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955800CAS Strategic Priority Research Program Grant No.XDA05150500
文摘Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions, whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country's right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8 ℃by 2100; consequently, much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.
基金support from the MOE Key Research Project in Philosophy and Social Sciences(NO.11JZD025)the Youth Project of the Natural Science Foundation(NO.71103066)the MOE Youth Project in Humanities and Social Sciences(NO.11YJC790226)
文摘The worldwide increase in consumption levels is a major cause of the dramatic rise in greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of consumption-based carbon emissions and the factors influencing it would facilitate the design of climate policies. This article employs data in the multi-regional input-output tables and on sectoral carbon emissions from the World Input-Output Database （WIOD） to develop a multi-regional input-out （MR/O） model, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory and analyzing global consumption-based carbon emissions and the spillover effects of international carbon emissions. The results show that global consumption- based carbon emissions in 2009 were 28850 Mt, of which about 20 percent were embodied in international trade. A large part of these emissions derived from production in and exportsfrom China and the region comprising Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Australia and Turkey （BRIIAT）, production and exports which were consumed in NAFTA and the Eurozone. If the factor of intemational trade is taken into consideration, the inter-regional gap in carbon emission intensity narrows, ranging from 2.4 t （BRIIAT） to 14.7 t （NAFTA） consumption-based emissions per capita. Whereas embodied imported carbon accounted for 33 percent and 17 percent in NAFTA and the Eurozone respectively, 29 percent of China＇s carbon emissions were caused by the consumption of other countries. Therefore, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory has become increasingly important for international climate negotiations. Moreover, allocating responsibility for carbon emissions between the producer and the consumer will help change the existing mode of consumption and promote emission reduction.
文摘The paper analyses the changes in the China＇s auto industry, showing how the rapid growth in production and sales between 2000 and 2008 came largely from the economic growth. The emergence of homegrown assemblers strengthened fierce competition for all assemblers and resulted in the spreading of regional auto production networks with linkage to leading international automakers. This move integrated China＇s major regional production into the global chain and speeded up technology spillovers in the automobile industry. The paper reveals how the relationships between homegrown makers and joint ventures have been coordinated within the framework of local production networks, which turn out to have a highly localized production capacity. Furthermore, the results stand testimony for the fact that China＇s auto industry is becoming competitive through learning-by-doing. In the future outlook, the growing economy in China will be the most influential driving force to shift the global auto industry into China, which will turn out to be a super auto giant in the coming decade.
